All eyes on unemployment

On Thursday, U.S. markets have ended in the green on the wire. At the close, the Dow Jones advanced 0.49% to 10,320.10 points, the Nasdaq gained 1.06% to 2200.01 points while the S & P has won 0.91% in 1090 10 points.Prudent after Wednesday's rally, investors have finally acknowledged the unexpected rebound in housing sales promises.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro was trading leveled against the greenback at 1.2839 dollars against 1.2821 dollars the previous day.

On the macroeconomic front, At 14h30, the investors will have their eyes riveted on the United States. It was at that time that the unemployment figures across the Atlantic for the month of August will be published, a major indicator to assess the strength of the U.S. recovery.The group withdrew Thursday vast funnel that had been able to stop in mid-July oil spill in charge of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, a key step before finally condemning the well, said a U.S. official.

Expected for several months, the competing tablets iPad were presented at the IFA electronics show the general public in Berlin. Archos The French had taken the lead in introducing a new range of five tablets. Title Apple could react this series listings.

Also note, the Wall Street Journal, the Treasury of the United States debates the number of foreign investors who would be entitled to subscribe for the reintroduction of General Motors stock.

In total only seven of 91 major European banks subject to tests of resistance have been realigned, as the Committee of European Regulators (CEBS), which means they will raise funds to strengthen their financial position. They may need to raise 3.5 billion euros.By comparison, 10 of 19 U.S. banks had been tested in early 2009 over the obstacle.

CONCERE tests in Europe, there are five Spanish banks (Civica Cajasur, Unnim, and Espiga Diada), a Greek bank (Atebank) and Germany's Hypo Real Estate. No major surprises so. The institutions cited were regularly advertised as the most fragile. Note that none of the seven institutions is listed on the Exchange. Among the banks that failed this test, regulators believe that capital requirements are the most important elements in establishing German Hypo Real Estate (HRE), which needs to 1.245 billion euros to raise the minimum, and The Spanish savings bank Diada (Caixa Catalunya, Caixa Tarragona Caixa Manresa), too short of 1.032 billion.

Among the 84 banks that have successfully passed the tests, several lie exactly at the required level, a ratio "Tier One" 6%.It is the establishment Greek Piraeus Bank, and Spanish banks Banco Pastor, Caja Sol, while many German regional banks and savings banks in Spain will fall only slightly above 6%. C This is also where the largest Slovenian bank Nova Ljubljanska Banka (NLB) which displays a level of 6.3% and decided, therefore, increase its capital on its own initiative.

Analysts reviews

"It was too lenient. We anticipated the failure of 10 banks, but only seven have failed. No institution has failed side. This has dispelled any fears that existed until now and all questions were asked before (stress tests) will continue to be asked "critic James Hughes, market analyst at CMC Capital in London.

For Chris Rupkey, economist at Mitsubishi UFJ in New York, "The monetary authorities need to reassure international investors and to show skeptics that European banks are sound from a financial point of view. Despite the questions about transparency and the fact that stress tests are not subject to stress tests U.S. last year, I think these tests will begin to concerns about the eurozone behind us. There could be an initial disappointment leading to some selling on Monday at the reopening of markets, but the market will quickly pass over. " He continued: "The market was asking too much at once. At one stage it was thought that U.S. banks drank the cup in terms of equity because there was significant depreciation of their assets in mortgages.This was not true, so it is not "fair" that the market wants to see a decline in the value of sovereign debt in the euro area in the accounts of banks'

European regulators have scrutinized the 91 largest banks in the European Union to ensure that their capital levels are sufficient to enable them to cope with shocks even more severe than the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, which sparked a near-collapse of global financial markets. Banks unable to maintain a ratio of Tier 1 capital of at least 6% by end 2011 in the hardest of these scenarios will be considered as having failed the tests.

France has fully passed the examination, the four banks involved in these tests (BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, Credit Agricoleet BPCE-Banque Populaire Caisse d'Epargne) have shown that they retain a sufficient level of funds in proportion different scenarios.

French banks "among the strongest"

The "brand of French banks is really a very strong resilience, welcomed Christian Noyer, governor of the Bank of France, with the results of these tests, commissioned by the European Commission and organized by the CEBS (Committee European Banking Supervisors). With these results, show that French banks "are among the strongest in Europe," says the Bank of France again.These results were "predictable" because they are "in line with the results obtained in tests conducted regularly in France and the demonstrated ability of French banks weather the recent crisis," he added.

Banks were tested maintain a level of equity called "Tier One" (reported capital commitments of the bank) of 6% for the regulator considers that they had passed the test. However, tests have shown that if stress of a major financial crisis, the ratio of cumulative four French banks would fall to 9.3% at end 2011 against 9.9% in late 2009.For Christian Noyer, even in cases of "adverse scenario, the banks maintain a" level of income in 2010 and 2011 roughly the same as in 2009.

"Cum laude" for Christine Lagarde

The Minister of Economy Christine Lagarde, who in the columns of Le Figaro said it had "full confidence on the health of French banks said they had succeeded in" hands down "the exam. "The French banks have passed the exam, I would say: with honors," she said."The test was particularly difficult," ruled the economy minister, stressing that the simulation was at once assumed an economic recession and crisis of sovereign debt of countries of the European Union.

"It's obviously a matter for satisfaction," she said, "because it means we will be able to finance the economy, finance households, businesses, and the distrust of markets should now disappear, given this exercise in transparency. " "These good results reflect the overall strength of the French banking and in particular the significant strengthening of the capital of French banks in recent months, and exposure to sovereign risk control," she said in a statement ."They demonstrate the relevance of the model of regulation and supervision of French, based on a demanding approach to risk prevention," stressed the minister, who said "the efforts of French authorities during the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009 stabilizing the French financial system have borne fruit. "

Already, in an interview with Le Parisien, the leader has unveiled details of its new strategy. Stéphane Richard wants to empower his group to answer the series of suicides that has shaken the operator for more than a year. Thus, the leader has established "a new charter with five key managerial principles whose watchwords are autonomy, trust and respect." The boss also advocates listening.Stéphane Richard also wants to create a "dozen" in "places of training for 20,000 manageurs group" and a stabilization of the workforce in 2010, with "3500 recruitment to offset departures"

Emerging in the viewfinder

Furthermore, the leader plans to spend 200 to 300 million customers worldwide by 2015. The strategic plan "Conquests 2015, and based on the development of communication networks. The officer also refers to "the conquest of the international, especially in emerging countries.

Stéphane Richard also announced the merger of France Telecom and Orange "well before 2015.

Since 2004, Wall Street has found a new Eldorado, CDOs (collateral debt obligation). These financial products assembled from scratch, called "synthetic" because they only reflect the value of other real assets, they, as loans granted to low-income households, the famous subprime. In 2007, Goldman Sachs creates such mass-produced and dubbed "Abacus".

The needs of a large customer

Paulson & Co is the time a small hedge fund. It will become one of the biggest thanks to its bet on the decline in U.S. housing. In the year 2007, his boss will cash alone a profit of some 3.7 billion dollars and will save 15 billion to its customers! The SEC in 2006, Paulson & Co has the right intuition that the subprime market is fragile. He put on his fall.Its Paris can take two forms: buy CDS (credit default swaps), the "insurance" against default that will naturally grow in value when the risk will increase, or "short" CDOs, that is ie sell futures without holding them.

A French in the loop

Paulson & Co. is not alone in feeling the wind change on CDOs. At Goldman, you think too. This is particularly the case of a young French – the "Frenchies" are highly respected in the business of structured finance – Fabrice Tourre. The banker of 31 years, citing the SEC's complaint, went on the benches of Henri IV and Louis-le-Grand, has joined Goldman Sachs after Stanford and Central Paris. It is he who makes and sells the Abacus series. On January 23, 2007, he sent an email to a friend: "more and more leverage in the system.Any building can fall at any moment now … only surviving potential, the fabulous Fab, standing amid all these complex transactions, (…), exotic we've created without necessarily understanding all the implications of these monstrosities No teletrack payday loans ".

Fraud

The fund Paulson wants to "short" of CDOs, the most fragile, if possible. Goldman is going to create. According to the SEC investigation, the investment bank has simply made the model 2007-AC1 Series Abacus according to the wishes of his client. Paulson has directly participated in the selection of loans that this CDO would be representative. The bank was then entrenched behind an independent firm, ACA. This firm, which appear to have selected the credits of this CDO when it will be sold to investors.

Goldman said that "ACA has selected the benchmark portfolio, omitting any mention of the fact that Paulson, an actor whose interests were contrary to those of investors, had played a significant role," says the SEC to justify its accusation of fraud.

In fact, few investors have bought shares knowing that a heavyweight like Paulson urged to Paris on their fall! ACA would for his part acted in good faith.While representatives from attending meetings Paulson – "surreal" by Fabrice Tourre – with those of Goldman, but suggesting that hedge funds also invest in shares of CDOs.

Victims

SEC's complaint cites two main victims of the banks handling it denounces the German IKB, the subprime crisis has brought to its knees and the Dutch ABN Amro, fully nationalized today … The first would have lost 150 million, almost all of its investment. As for ACA, it is off … "Investors of Abacus 2007-AC1 lost more than one billion dollars. The opposing positions on CDS Paulson reported a profit of approximately one billion, "says the SEC.

"Until now, the Sixteen had taken decisions in principle, we now show that there is money behind," said Jean-Claude Juncker after a video conference involving Ministers Euro zone finance. "All the tools are in place and operational immediately," said Olli Rehn, European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs.

Athens has not yet decided to use this financial plan. But it was time to measure reliability.Greece, seriously diminished his credit, is to resume tomorrow's Calvary borrower, raising 1.2 billion of Treasury bills at six and twelve months. Repeatedly announced but never detailed the mechanism difficult to convince the markets for two months. The litmus test is committed immediately. By late May, Athens faces more than 10 billion euros maturity on a debt estimated at 300 billion. It must still find 32 billion before the end of the year. The figures broken down on Sunday in Brussels, more generous than expected, seem a priori to the scale of the challenge.

For 30 billion that could unlock the Sixteen would be added the joint contribution of the IMF. If we follow the rule laid down by 2/3-1/3 the last EU summit, Greece could therefore be based if necessary on a cushion of more than 40 billion euros in loans this year.No estimate has yet been advanced for years.

Mechanism triple expansion

With an interest of around 5% on loans for three years, the Sixteen still follow the principles laid March 25. As a last resort, Greece could be financed at a lower price than it does now on the market (more than 7%), easy payday loans. But she would not receive any subsidy-provided imperiously posed by Germany, nor any advantage over other heavily indebted countries like Portugal, Ireland, Spain or Italy. If the ETF would be implemented, "Greece would be encouraged to return quickly to the market" to finance themselves forward Jean-Claude Juncker.A hypothesis that will be realized when Athens will be able to raise money at rates lower than the European plan.

Faced with deadlines looming, the Greek prime minister, George Papandreou, had struck these days on all doors so that Europe finally joins the action to the word. To impress the financial, "we must put a loaded revolver on the table," he said Sunday at the Greek newspaper "To Vima". "The question, he added, is whether the device will persuade the markets (…) Otherwise, it could well be used …"

At the announcement of decisions taken by the Sixteen, the Greek Minister of Finance was confident.George Papaconstantinou welcomed an agreement "very important", confirming that he had not requested the activation of the mechanism: "We believe we can continue to borrow freely on the markets."

It was at Athens that he would take the initiative, confirmed Sunday the Commissioner Rehn. But the mechanism is at least triple expansion. The European Commission, the ECB and the IMF all have their say or their conditions to ask. Finally, the loans would only be released only by unanimous consent of the Sixteen, which gives a veto to Germany. George Papandreou today has a net credible.But it has not finished with the tightrope.

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Tidjane was "very flattered to have been chosen for the post of independent director at Societe Generale," calling the bank "remarkable company."He justified his decision by the challenges it faces today: "My priority is to continue to focus on achieving strong results for our shareholders, and the success of the strategic transaction with AIG, and the 'integration resulting payday advance .»

More than a personal choice, his refusal would have been motivated primarily by strong opposition from shareholders of Prudential to this project. These are indeed alarmed at the proposal of Societe Generale, fearing that Tidjane not dispersed at the crucial moment of the acquisition by Prudential's Asian operations of AIG.

"PORTRAIT – Tidjane breaks through glass ceiling

The total number of Greek officials remain uncertain. The Ministry of Finance counts "approximately" 522,000 in the central administration, a figure which must be added 180,000 employees of local authorities and public enterprises, according to a spokesman. Some economists expect rather from 800,000 to 850,000 jobs, or about 35% of total employment, as argued by Jens Bastian of the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP).

To achieve such a payroll, state and local governments have hired a vengeance. "In 2009, 12,000 people left in retirement and more than 29,000 were hired. In short, the entrants were almost two and a half times more numerous than the outgoing, "says Jens Bastian.

Clientelism

The trend is not new. "Until the current government, public service filled the role of an employment agency," said the economist. "The policies have also sought to use their electoral base as public servants."

According to Greek daily Kathimerini, the political patronage has been launched in the 80s by the Socialist Party (Pasok) and the then Prime Minister, Andreas Papandreou, who is none other than the father of George, currently head of Government savings account payday advance ."He wanted to give the excluded, which formed the core of its electorate, the means to live as middle class," says newspaper center-right. It was also "buy social peace" at any cost, continuing Kathimerini, while Greece emerged from the dictatorship of the Colonels.

The economy "coasting"

The Pasok is not solely to blame. "From 2004 to 2009, New Democracy (right) has made the situation worse by doing nothing to cut costs and increase government revenues, leaving the economy from free-wheeling," Kathimerini analysis.

The government of George Papandreou, under the combined pressure of the market and Brussels, has no alternative today to tighten the belt. He promised not to replace a retiring over the next five years. The thirteenth and fourteenth month salaries of civil servants will be reduced by 30% and 60%.The measures, announced in January and March, are retroactive and apply from 1 January. They will be more difficult to accept that they occur after 30 years of accommodative policies.

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However the number of starts of new homes continued to decline by 18.1% over the period August-October over the same period of 2008, the ministry said. The number of building permits granted for new housing also appears to decrease (-17.2%) over the period from August to October over the same period of 2008. Over the period from May to July, the decline was 29.6% a year.

Price later, a new home sells on average 241,900 euros, a figure lower than 4.4% in the third quarter 2008. The decline affects all sizes of homes – excluding houses fewer than four parts whose price is higher than the third quarter 2008 (+2.4%). For new apartments, the average price per square meter record in the third quarter of 2009 reached 3382 euro, less than 1.2% from the third quarter 2008 (EUR 3 423).

"The sales increase is a good sign"

Nevertheless, the Secretary of State for Housing Benoist Appearing sees soaring sales in a year "a good sign." "The demand increases, buyers found a solvent and the sites will be able to restart," he told AFP.However, although sales picked up, the number of new homes sold by developers in the third quarter was down 9.6% on year to 19,300. According to the FPC, the government measures that have stimulated investment rental must be extended to allow real sector recovery. "The doubling of interest-free loan for six months will only exacerbate the imbalance between investment and rental assumption, sorry Marc Pigeon, president of the Federation of Property Developers.

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"If I could keep the income level I had at Veolia, it seems to me that this is not shocking in itself for a company that weighs 70 billion public offering" was well justified Henri Proglio.

Asked about the pay, Christian Estrosi said it must "show a little courage if we are to have the best captains of industry to lead our largest companies.Henri Proglio "accept new responsibilities higher" and "refers simply does not occur at a pay level lower," continued the Minister.

The debate on the remuneration of the new CEO of EDF had already been opened November 5 last, when the Minister of Economy Christine Lagarde was assured that Henri Proglio not accrue more and pay only perceive as president of 'EDF.