The crisis is confirmed a little more. The system of unemployment insurance (Unedic) has revised its forecast Friday for job creation and unemployment for 2011 and 2012. And the conclusion optimism grows. On the basis of assumptions "realistic and reasonable" GDP growth (+ 1.8% in 2011 and 1.7% in 2012, where the government plans + 2% and 2.25%) and payroll (+ 3.1% this year and +3.5% next year), Unedic provides an acceleration in job creation two years: 146,000 in 2011 and 168,400 in 2012, against 119,700 estimated in 2010.
This translates, of course, by an encouraging trend on the number of job seekers. Unedic estimated that the number of registered Class A employment center (the unemployed with no activity) will drop by 138,000 this year.But this decline will be largely offset by the continued rise in the number of jobseekers who had reduced activity (categories B and C) or are exempt from search: + 98 000 people. "The job was restarted by acting through short-term contracts," said Geoffroy Roux de Bezieux, Vice-President (MEDEF) of UNEDIC. There should be a reversal in 2012 with the creation of more full-time jobs. "Confirmation Bonnand Gaby, President (CFDT) of the institution:" The number of unemployed decreased activity continue to rise this year but decline in 2012. "In fact, next year, the decline in the number of unemployed in category A (- 92,000) will be amplified by the Class B and C and provided research (- 31,000). As the number of unemployed receiving benefits, it will drop by about 80,000 per year, the next two years, after rising 51,500 in 2010.Forecasts "in line with the data of the first month of the year," Vincent assured Destival, director of UNEDIC.
No drop in fee
These data will have a significant impact on the accounts. The cumulative deficit (8.5 billion euros at end 2010) will reach 10.5 billion at December 31, 2011 while he was withholding $ 14 billion a year ago. It will drop even late 2012 – albeit slightly, from 200 million – to around $ 10.3 billion. "This is the first since the crisis began that record a positive result, welcomed Geoffroy Roux de Bezieux. But he remained a heavy debt that will not even consider a reduction in contributions. "
Unedic also fired "key findings" of the 2008 crisis. The decline in employment of 500,000 jobs in two years, was lower than expected."She has twice been less pronounced than the value when the two had fallen back in the same proportions in 1992 and 1993," says the plan. "Companies have behaved more virtuous and long-term approach, and tried to keep their employees as long as possible through mechanisms of partial unemployment," said Geoffroy Roux de Bezieux justified.
Another observation: the resumption of job creation occurred earlier than expected, since early 2010. "This confirms the assumption that labor productivity per capita weakened by the crisis," Gaby Bonnand found. As a result, having decreased by 1% since early 2008 when she posted eight quarters after the recessions of 1992 and 2001, an increase of 1%.This was then translated violently in unemployment figures.
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