The stabilization of the unemployment rate to 9.1% of the workforce, the French plunges further into the past: in early 2006, when the indicator peaked at a similar figure, before falling to unprecedented s 'is followed. In total, during the year 2009, the weak economy has had reason to 373,000 jobs, an increase in the number of job seekers by 20.3%. A particularly tough fall for the industry, which has accumulated during that dark year structural and cyclical crises, destroying nearly 100,000 jobs for the first half of 2009 alone.
Measures directly aimed at boosting the labor market, set up under the stimulus plan, however, seem to have limited the damage. "Put in connection with money taken by other countries, the stimulus is small.But the measures for use therein have been good "said Eric Heyer, Deputy Director at OFCE.
Offset
In total, the government estimates at 400,000 the number of jobs created or preserved by all actions taken under the recovery plan partial unemployment, subsidized contracts, extending device reclassification professional device "zero charge" for the 'hiring of an employee by TPE … -. If this figure is currently not verifiable, stabilizing unemployment announced by INSEE in the third quarter of 2009, and out of recession that began in the second, appear reassuring signals. … While analysts agree today to find that the adjustment of the labor market is still far from complete.
When is therefore a market recovery in employment and lower unemployment? Not before 2011, say the economists."Growth of 1.3% proposed by employment center for 2010 will not be sufficient to generate net new jobs," said Ernst and Bernard, director of statistics, surveys and forecasts for employment center. "Given the French productivity, only a growth above 2.5% would generate" confirms Eric Heyer, highlighting the gap of three quarters generally observed between resumed growth and lower unemployment rates. Same story with Nicolas Bouzou, economist at Altars, which estimates that unemployment will stabilize at best in 2010. "The problem is that this stabilization occurs at a high level," says he.
Brakes
Various factors should indeed help to limit the decline in unemployment in the months ahead.First, partial unemployment: as he has played a buffer role on the labor market by reducing redundancies, it should eventually stop the resumption of hiring. The 143,000 employees have benefited from the device indeed logically gather their full-time position, in priority to any additional recruitment. Second brake that is particularly Eric Heyer: the reinstatement of unemployment discouraged job seekers. "The stabilization of unemployment in the third quarter was partly due to traditional discouraged jobseekers less well positioned on the labor market.When the activity will leave, they re-subscribe, mechanically limiting the decline in unemployment. "An argument that employment center does not yet resumed its consideration.
If the unemployment rate should best pursue its stabilization in 2010, an additional shadow is looming: While the acceleration slows overall unemployment in recent months, the increase in long-term unemployed, who thus lose some little employability, increasing gradually. "The first people to find work are generally those who have been unemployed for some time. The number of long-term increases so mechanically, and should in this case continue to grow in first quarter 2010.
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