Posts Tagged ‘opinions’

"The Chinese economy should be consolidated"

Friday, July 23rd, 2010

lefigaro.fr / jdf.com – The slowdown in China is it disturbing for the world economy?

Yi Tang – Rather than "slow", I prefer to use the term "consolidation". China has still a yoy growth of 10.3% in the second quarter. The Chinese economy has certainly been a highest of 11.9% in the first quarter of this year and two of the three engines of China's economic growth in infrastructure investment and consumption have in fact seen their share in gross domestic product ( GDP) decline, while exports increased. But this consolidation is a natural and even necessary to avoid overheating. Note that the consolidation levels are higher than last year at the same time.Now, the year 2009 was so exceptional for the Chinese economy as a result of comparison with this year will necessarily be less favorable. We expect GDP% between 9 and 10% in 2010 to China.

What impact is there on the Chinese stock markets?

Paradoxically, since the confirmation of the consolidation of the Chinese economy, Asian stock markets' performance rather positive. However, fears of overheating and "double dip" (recession followed by recovery and then a new relapse) had plagued the financial markets and new opportunities for the long-term investors on the Shanghai and Scholarships Hong Kong. We encourage individuals to return to Chinese equities from one or two months and are positive for twelve or eighteen months.We also note that investors have a vision of increasing long-term actions, while so far the Chinese were accustomed to behave as short-term approach and more sheepish than international investors. He must be aware of that being a portfolio manager is very young in this country: the first asset management companies in China were introduced in 1998.

The change of status of China, which moves from an economy driven by exports to an economy supported by domestic consumption, he will offer new opportunities for investors?

Absolutely. This change is very positive for China and especially since it is now confirmed. The country has long said he would change the economic model without it being proved by the figures. Quite the contrary. The share of domestic consumption in GDP fell between 2001 and 2007.But since 2008, the government has clearly realized its desire to boost domestic demand by increasing spending on health and grants for education or for poorer totally free credit score.

This change will he impact your portfolio allocation?

We will clearly strengthen us in the consumer values. Our specialists will visit various areas of the region and identify trends. We are generally positive on the cyclical sectors in which the valuations are relatively attractive.

We will also strengthen the real estate industry. Three months ago, the government has taken a series of measures in this field. While the sector has seen massive sales, we have to position ourselves.Since April, we recorded an increase of 20% for a pocket which represents only 6% of our portfolio. Finally, we are strengthening in the commodities sector, because we thought that economic activity remains strong in China, and that the sector is oversold.

Conversely, we will reduce the share of defensive stocks such as pharmaceuticals (6.5% to 2%) and telecommunications (15% to 12/13%), for which we won respectively 40% and 50% and between 11% and 20%. We believe, unlike other managers forced to remain invested through management benchmarked, that valuations are too high now. For the first time we have seen in China as heads of companies bought back shares with their own money. This confirms our fundamental belief that companies are good and that the Chinese economy remains in good health.Rather than trying to replicate the performance of an index, we prefer to focus on the fundamentals of companies and their level of recovery.

Agricultural Bank of China could become the biggest IPO. Have you positioned in this title?

We have not invested in Agricultural Bank of China because we believe that the action is too expensive. Moreover, we do not, in general, the market capitalization as a criterion for management. We are lacking in banking stocks for nearly two years, but gradually reinvest in this sector. If the fundamentals of the Chinese economy evolve only very rarely, the value of its businesses varies, it very quickly. We will focus again to the Agricultural Bank of China, where the valuations of financial stocks will be more attractive.

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The requirement for U.S. investors

Friday, June 18th, 2010

Between the French listed companies and U.S. investors, the reports are looking good. Despite the crisis, Paris remains the third preferred destination after Great Britain and Germany. But this affinity could become even more intensity, if we believe a research firm Financial Dynamics on the attractiveness of companies listed on the Paris Stock Exchange with 30 institutional investors on Wall Street. Europe weighs only 13.8% of their portfolio and the size of France went a small 1.6%, which suggests the study, could grow if the managements of French companies were showing "greater transparency and if the publications were more accurate results and frequent. All these qualities, however, already claimed by large listed companies. Yet Americans remain unsatisfied.While 62% feel well informed about investment opportunities, 38% complain that they do not quite grasp the subtleties of the governance and regulation at the French. This does not prevent them from playing for high: 39% of respondents prefer large-cap, over 10 billion euros. And 23% opt for those between 5 and 9.99 billion euros.

To choose between two companies in the euro area, 53% of investors focus first on to dissect the "fundamentals", only 16% consider the prospects for growth as critical. Which is good in this day and age.

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Switzerland: France Telecom renounces its merger

Friday, June 4th, 2010

France Telecom abandoned its proposed merger with the Swiss Sunrise, which had been blocked recently by the Swiss competition authority.

The French telecoms operator and the Danish TDC, parent company of Sunrise, have said in a statement that an analysis "detailed" the situation had led them to decide to stop their discussions.

"An appeal to the Federal Administrative Court will also be removed," added the two groups.

The Competition Commission (Competition Commission) in Switzerland has prohibited the merger in April between Orange Communications, Swiss subsidiary of France Telecom, and Sunrise Communications, the second mobile operator in Switzerland. The Commission had noted that the scale resulting from the merger would have created, together with a number Swisscom, a collective dominant position.

This legal setback in Switzerland should not call into question the policy of merger and acquisition of the operator, however, had said the leaders of France Telecom several times in recent weeks. On April 29, when the annual results of the group, CFO of Orange, Gervais Pelissier, was still reported to remain "convinced that having a strong second operator in Switzerland, Swisscom side, is the way to recover dynamics of competition in the years ahead. "

Always looking for new growth

France Telecom is still looking for consolidation opportunities in mature markets, as well as targets in emerging markets, particularly in Africa and the Middle East.

Switzerland accounts for less than 1% of global sales group, and less than 1.5% of its EBITDA.Orange Switzerland, 100% subsidiary of France Telecom and third mobile operator in the Confederation, was done last year a turnover of 1.3 billion Swiss francs (924 million) with approximately 1156 employees.

Sunrise is in turn the number two industry in Switzerland, with sales of 9.9 billion kroner (1.3 billion euros) conducted in 2009.

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The CAC 40 down again

Thursday, April 22nd, 2010

The Paris Bourse falling off again while Eurostat revised up the Greek deficit in 2009, and after having fallen sharply (-1.22%) the day before amid concerns about government debt.

The Greek interest rates to ten years has exceeded 8% in the day Wednesday. Investors wonder if Greece will well repay the debt, with growth stifled by a plan of unprecedented stringency.

At midterm, the CAC 40 yields 1.05%, to 3935.75 points.

Rain clues to look closely

This session will be loaded in major economic indicators. In France, growth accelerated in April in the French private sector, with a strong burst of activity in services, according to the PMI survey published Thursday by Markit Economics.The composite index rose to 58.4, its highest level in four months, against 55.8 in March.

The morale of French companies has jumped four points in April compared to March to reach 97 points, despite backlogs still scanty, according to Insee.

Moreover, the French manufacturing industry has confirmed its recovery in April from the previous month, according to the business survey released Thursday by the INSEE.The synthetic indicator of business climate index rose four points to 97, while remaining below its long term average.

Finally across the Atlantic, at 14:30, investors become aware of producer prices in March and traditional weekly claims for unemployment benefits and then at 16 hours, home resales for the month of March ser

Schneider, Vallourec and L'Oreal to take on the ACC

Schneider Electric on Wednesday confirmed its 2010 target of a moderate increase in its turnover in organic figures. The shares were down 2.06%, to 86.427 euros.

Vallourec (-0.74%, to 148.4 euros) has announced the acquisition for 150 million euros Serimax, a company specializing in offshore pipelines.

The group Areva (0.50% to 382.75 euros), yet prey to big delays on another local project, the favorites to meet the tender of the Finnish government, which wants to build two new reactors.

Also in ACC 40, L'Oreal (0.46%, to 80.37 euros) said it signed an agreement to acquire the U.S. Essie Cosmetics, make-up brand nail polish, whose sales sales amounted to 28 million (about 21 million euros) over the last twelve months.

The Competition Commission has prohibited the merger between Orange, a subsidiary of telecom operator France Telecom (-1.16%, to 16.97 euros), and Sunrisecom "> cash advance. The company resulting from the merger would have created, together with Swisscom, a collective dominant position on the market for mobile telephony.

Guy Wyser-Pratte does not increase its stake from 0.53% in Lagard?re group with which it engaged in an arm-wrestling to be appointed to its supervisory board and change its governance.Lagardere shares were down 1.71%, to 31.35 euros.

Publications animate Exchange

Later publications, they have been good for Sodexo (3.19% to 45.60 euros), Remy Cointreau (1.32%, to 43.82 euros) and Carbone Lorraine (2.67%, to 27, 70 euros), which are among the highest increases in the SBF 120.

Sodexo has recorded an operating profit better than expected in the first half, and now expects a range between 770 and 790 million euros for the full year.

Carbone Lorraine on Wednesday released a stable turnover in the first quarter at constant perimeter and exchange rates and confirmed its targets for 2010.

The wine and spirits group Remy Cointreau announced Thursday an increase in its annual turnover (April 2009-March 2010) of 13.1% to 807.8 million euros.

Vranken-Pommery has also published a large turnover of 39.4 million euros, up 38.1% (+11.4% on a constant basis, excluding integration Listel), thanks to the recovery its activity champagne. The company expects a sales growth of over 20% "medium term". The shares are 2.63%

In addition, Publicis made a surprise Thursday by posting organic growth of 3.1% of its income in the first quarter, two times higher than that of Havas. Its shares rise 1.70% to 34.02 euros.

Plastic Omnium (-1.32% to 33.01 euros) announced an increase of over 43% of its activity in the first quarter, benefiting from a favorable base effect with the automotive market crisis a year ago.

Surprises

Side decreases, Nexans has the highest drop in the Paris stock exchange: -9.38% to 58.90 euros.The leader in the cable industry has registered a turnover of 1.35 billion euros, up 8.4% yoy while in the course of constant non-ferrous metals, it reached 971 million of euros, down 11.1%.

Just behind Technilocolor – formerly Thomson – was down 5.60% to 1.03 euro. The company posted a turnover of 691 million euros for the first quarter, down 24.4%.

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The electricity tax will be reformed

Tuesday, April 13th, 2010

Taxes are so many in France that the French often pay taxes without realizing it. Who knows the local tax on electricity (TLE), which is yet on the electricity bill under the term "local taxes"? Levied by counties and municipalities, it is now optional. But most local officials do not hesitate to apply it, and very often at the maximum rate allowed, or 8% for municipalities and 4% for the departments. This tax applies to 80% of pre-tax amount of electricity bill. Clearly, if you pay 150 euros per year, excluding tax, subscription and consumption of electricity, the TLE can climb up to 14.40 euros. The total cost TLE still one billion per year to households. The note is for the companies is anywhere from 500 million (the largest consumers of electricity are exempt from TLE).

This system will certainly evolve in the coming months.Because France does not respect EU rules: since 1 January 2009, the FTA should become mandatory. The 2003 directive on the taxation of energy products and electricity provided that each State should, at that time, have a low tax (the minima are lower than current French) but paid for by all and based on the volumes consumed and not the amount of the invoice.

Losers in the rural

The European Commission said in Paris about the end of March, threatening to bring the case before the Court of Justice if the reform was not implemented within two months. For now, the government has not made a decision. But Bercy board on the subject. Indeed, a first draft was submitted to the consultation in late 2008 which set the fee to 8.50 euros per megawatt hour for households. A level calculated for the levy does not change.For Bercy is that the changeover from one system to another is painless for the French. But there will inevitably be losers: the inhabitants of the few municipalities, often rural, not applying EFT. Additional cost for a typical household of two children: about 25 euros per year. At a Senate hearing, Philippe Marini, the UMP rapporteur of the Budget, has proposed that, in this case, the application of the new tax should be spread over five years.

But there will also be winners, as second home owners, who will pay more than their consumption, whereas before the subscription was also submitted to the FTA and the Parisians, whose rate of TLE (13.2 %) was higher. Ultimately, all French people will be interested because the volumes consumed – using the new system – progress less rapidly than the bill that reflected higher prices. This does not relish the local politicians.Another uncertainty, Brussels does allow communities to adjust the tax? Apparently so. Finally, manufacturers will be exempt from TLE, themselves, pay the new tax. The final draft is not yet completed. And it is unlikely to be ready before the review in May and June, the bill on the organization of the electricity market. Especially if the government wants to resume consultations. The deadline is rather that the next draft budget law for 2011.

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We have 37 euros in pocket

Thursday, April 8th, 2010

The wallet 100% electronic, it is not for tomorrow. According to a poll conducted last month by Ifop for Wincor Nixdorf, the French claim to hold 95% of cash on them. What make the heart glad to sponsor this survey specialist payment systems (cash, ATM …) To qualify however: among the 1005 respondents, only 16% of 18-24 year olds systematically the cash on them against 52% of those 65 and older.

In looking to the bottom of our pockets, the pollster has determined that it contains on average 37 euros with substantial differences from the profiles. The more than 65 years generally have 59 euros on them while under 30 simply 20 euros.The Ifop also notes that men have pockets trimmed a little better (44 euros against 31 for women) as well as the people of south east (47 euros) and the Paris region (43 euros).

For those who prefer to dispense with "liquid" is obviously because they prefer to use their credit card (77%) or to spend less money (30%). Only 5% of species resistant to explain this move by the fear of being robbed of his money no fax cash loans. We also learn in this survey just over a third of respondents keep cash at home (36%).Among them, they are even one quarter (24%) admit to hiding in their homes, 20% a small amount and 4% a big sum.

Must feed for purses in small denominations, vending machines are visited at least once a week for 34% of the French, "several times a month" for 35% and "less frequent" for 29% of them. It withdraws an amount less than 50 euros for 60% of respondents, 10% of French people with experience, in turn, withdraw 100 euros. Only small expenses (groceries, newspapers, tobacco …) are subject to a cash payment by a large majority of French. Cinema and the parking stand still (44% cash payment and 56% prefer another means of payment). The products that we pay the least happy in hard cash? The gasoline service station (4%) and shopping in supermarkets (5%).

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Minutes Zacharias: pugnacious defense of the former CEO of Vinci

Friday, March 26th, 2010

Three-piece suit, white shirt and dark tie, the former CEO of Vinci, Antoine Zacharias, has always understated elegance of a great boss. Yet this 70-year-old retiree, who wears a hearing aid, had presided at Thursday yet another board. He appeared for abuse of company property before the fifteenth penal court of Nanterre. Specifically, he complains of having put his own men in the compensation committee of the group to inflate his fees have skyrocketed: a severance bonus of 12.5 million euros, an annual retreat of 2 1 million, gains on stock-option 124 million …

Faced with such accusations, it was expected that Antoine Zacharias lose its superb. After all, it is the first French skipper prosecuted for excessive pay, while his business was booming.In fact, he kept his legendary pugnacity and always distills his little quips. When the President, Isabelle Prevost-Desprez, asks him to track his career, thanked the engineer by Vinci in June 2006 took the opportunity to give a few scratches. Guy Dejouany, his former boss at the General Society of waters in the 1990s? "The man was a tyrant. Perhaps the most difficult period of my life. "Alain Minc who sat on the board of Vinci? "He has a big ego."

And as Isabelle Prevost-Desprez do not let them count, this gives rise to a few passages of arms tasty payday loan . Especially when it comes to whether Antoine Zacharias has ensured that the remuneration committee Vinci is completely renewed."Mr Faure, who was sitting there says you have transferred to establish a committee more complacent. So, did you collect? "Asks the president. "No," replied tit for tat the former CEO of the CAC 40. They lie. "

A retreat "exceptional"

Gradually, Isabelle Prevost-Desprez is accumulating evidence that endanger Antoine Zacharias. Thus, it is disturbing that this new committee has ignored the advice of Towers Perrin warned against "inflation risks" associated with a change in the calculation of salary Zacharias.Also troubling that the point of view of the firm Cardif estimating the amount of the pension provided for ex-boss "exceptional" has been ignored.

In response, Antoine Zacharias has a clear line of defense that summarizes in one sentence: "One thing that is ignored by any board, and they do not know an ounce is the pay of the boss. "He received the unexpected support of Vinci, yet civil party in the record. "When they vote earnings for 2004 by Zacharias, administrators know that all this makes up 14%," said Georges Jourde, counsel for the construction group. This morning, it was the turn of the attorney to his indictment. It is surprising that it shares the same view.

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Swatch warns competitors

Saturday, March 13th, 2010

Swatch has saved the Swiss watch industry in the 1980s thanks to its cheaper models. DR

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Three mediators to avoid the conflict of road

Tuesday, December 8th, 2009

The risk of a strike by truckers threaten to block the deposition of large retailers from next Sunday is taken very seriously by governments.

Moments after receiving the Department of Transportation delegated Inter (CFDT, CGT, CFE-CGC and CTFC) of 500 000 employees, the Secretary of State for Transport, Dominique Bussereau, has appointed a mediator, not as planned but three.

Members of the firm Mensia Council Martial Belon, Herv? Nadal Muir and Eric have the difficult task of finding common ground – including on wages – between truckers and their companies.

Unions want the transition to a wage of 10 euros gross per hour for the highest coefficients, 4% increase for executives and 4% more for travel or 13th month for free.Claims deemed unacceptable by the companies badly affected by the slowing economy.

Dominique Bussereau is optimistic. A schedule is considered. "I think some points of view can be reconciled, he said. We hope to reach a first agreement of good will to avoid blocking of deposits, then in a second stage, discussions will be conducted on other points from the start. We promise. "

Dating successive

At work since Monday evening, the facilitators meet successively unions and employer organizations.Wednesday morning, they will provide their preliminary findings at a meeting bringing together the two sides to the ministry, just before the Cabinet tomorrow.

The discussions will continue until agreement is reached, but the secretary general of the CFDT, Maxime Dumont, believes a quick solution. "The situation seems more committed than in the previous conflict two years ago, says he. The government invests. I think some employers' organizations have proposals to make to break the impasse. "

On the employee side, there is, however, still doubtful. "We are conducting a fight but in fact they are the companies that benefit from the advantages offered by the government," said Fr?d?ric B?rard (CFE-CGC). FO-Secretary-General Transport, Gerard Martinez is also on the reserve."How do we get in two days that we could not have in a year and a half?" He questioned Monday before resuming discussions with the mediators.

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