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The departments affected by the crisis

Friday, April 23rd, 2010

Yes, some departments are in a precarious financial situation: this is the observation made by Pierre Jamet, Director General Services of the Rhone, in its report submitted Thursday to Prime Minister. But the social and demographic constraints do not explain everything. The report studied eleven departments – eight rural and three urban – handicapped by a high proportion of elderly people, high unemployment, household income below average and low density. The Correze and Creuse, both on the left are in this case. But only the first situation is worrying. The difference? The Creuse is little debt, if the Correze. The scenario is repeated between Pas-de-Calais and a virtuous Val-d'Oise debt.Moral: the policy choices have weighed heavy.

As for the Seine-Saint-Denis, "for four months, it has a 32% increase in revenue from estate duty, with a recovery of real estate," says Pierre Jamet. Understood, this department alone has passed a 2010 budget in balance – an act widely publicized by the President PS council, Claude Bartolone – is no longer in danger. In contrast, a dozen others may fail to maintain their balanced budget during the year, due to slippage in social spending. "We must therefore establish a monitoring committee at the government level. And the State will assist in June or July to emergency departments, by advances of funds by contributions, or even "recommends Pierre Jamet. Estimated boost: maximum 100 million euros.

Cost Standards

Nothing says that the government will retain this recommendation. For now, Francois Fillon has agreed only to launch in May a consultation with the Assembly of the departments of France. Matignon prefer to retain other recommendations: curbing the proliferation of standards and highlight good practices, including the cost of administering benefits. Pierre Jamet also insists on including the need for effective monitoring computer: "A software company has crossed the files of the RSA family benefit fund with those of a department. In 67 000 110 000 records, differences have emerged "in the name, address or income … In the longer term, the report recommends improving the redistribution of wealth between departments.The latest proposal is not as uncontroversial: that the career firefighters is managed by the local government service, rather than headquarters.

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The CAC 40 down again

Thursday, April 22nd, 2010

The Paris Bourse falling off again while Eurostat revised up the Greek deficit in 2009, and after having fallen sharply (-1.22%) the day before amid concerns about government debt.

The Greek interest rates to ten years has exceeded 8% in the day Wednesday. Investors wonder if Greece will well repay the debt, with growth stifled by a plan of unprecedented stringency.

At midterm, the CAC 40 yields 1.05%, to 3935.75 points.

Rain clues to look closely

This session will be loaded in major economic indicators. In France, growth accelerated in April in the French private sector, with a strong burst of activity in services, according to the PMI survey published Thursday by Markit Economics.The composite index rose to 58.4, its highest level in four months, against 55.8 in March.

The morale of French companies has jumped four points in April compared to March to reach 97 points, despite backlogs still scanty, according to Insee.

Moreover, the French manufacturing industry has confirmed its recovery in April from the previous month, according to the business survey released Thursday by the INSEE.The synthetic indicator of business climate index rose four points to 97, while remaining below its long term average.

Finally across the Atlantic, at 14:30, investors become aware of producer prices in March and traditional weekly claims for unemployment benefits and then at 16 hours, home resales for the month of March ser

Schneider, Vallourec and L'Oreal to take on the ACC

Schneider Electric on Wednesday confirmed its 2010 target of a moderate increase in its turnover in organic figures. The shares were down 2.06%, to 86.427 euros.

Vallourec (-0.74%, to 148.4 euros) has announced the acquisition for 150 million euros Serimax, a company specializing in offshore pipelines.

The group Areva (0.50% to 382.75 euros), yet prey to big delays on another local project, the favorites to meet the tender of the Finnish government, which wants to build two new reactors.

Also in ACC 40, L'Oreal (0.46%, to 80.37 euros) said it signed an agreement to acquire the U.S. Essie Cosmetics, make-up brand nail polish, whose sales sales amounted to 28 million (about 21 million euros) over the last twelve months.

The Competition Commission has prohibited the merger between Orange, a subsidiary of telecom operator France Telecom (-1.16%, to 16.97 euros), and Sunrisecom "> cash advance. The company resulting from the merger would have created, together with Swisscom, a collective dominant position on the market for mobile telephony.

Guy Wyser-Pratte does not increase its stake from 0.53% in Lagard?re group with which it engaged in an arm-wrestling to be appointed to its supervisory board and change its governance.Lagardere shares were down 1.71%, to 31.35 euros.

Publications animate Exchange

Later publications, they have been good for Sodexo (3.19% to 45.60 euros), Remy Cointreau (1.32%, to 43.82 euros) and Carbone Lorraine (2.67%, to 27, 70 euros), which are among the highest increases in the SBF 120.

Sodexo has recorded an operating profit better than expected in the first half, and now expects a range between 770 and 790 million euros for the full year.

Carbone Lorraine on Wednesday released a stable turnover in the first quarter at constant perimeter and exchange rates and confirmed its targets for 2010.

The wine and spirits group Remy Cointreau announced Thursday an increase in its annual turnover (April 2009-March 2010) of 13.1% to 807.8 million euros.

Vranken-Pommery has also published a large turnover of 39.4 million euros, up 38.1% (+11.4% on a constant basis, excluding integration Listel), thanks to the recovery its activity champagne. The company expects a sales growth of over 20% "medium term". The shares are 2.63%

In addition, Publicis made a surprise Thursday by posting organic growth of 3.1% of its income in the first quarter, two times higher than that of Havas. Its shares rise 1.70% to 34.02 euros.

Plastic Omnium (-1.32% to 33.01 euros) announced an increase of over 43% of its activity in the first quarter, benefiting from a favorable base effect with the automotive market crisis a year ago.

Surprises

Side decreases, Nexans has the highest drop in the Paris stock exchange: -9.38% to 58.90 euros.The leader in the cable industry has registered a turnover of 1.35 billion euros, up 8.4% yoy while in the course of constant non-ferrous metals, it reached 971 million of euros, down 11.1%.

Just behind Technilocolor – formerly Thomson – was down 5.60% to 1.03 euro. The company posted a turnover of 691 million euros for the first quarter, down 24.4%.

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The electricity tax will be reformed

Tuesday, April 13th, 2010

Taxes are so many in France that the French often pay taxes without realizing it. Who knows the local tax on electricity (TLE), which is yet on the electricity bill under the term "local taxes"? Levied by counties and municipalities, it is now optional. But most local officials do not hesitate to apply it, and very often at the maximum rate allowed, or 8% for municipalities and 4% for the departments. This tax applies to 80% of pre-tax amount of electricity bill. Clearly, if you pay 150 euros per year, excluding tax, subscription and consumption of electricity, the TLE can climb up to 14.40 euros. The total cost TLE still one billion per year to households. The note is for the companies is anywhere from 500 million (the largest consumers of electricity are exempt from TLE).

This system will certainly evolve in the coming months.Because France does not respect EU rules: since 1 January 2009, the FTA should become mandatory. The 2003 directive on the taxation of energy products and electricity provided that each State should, at that time, have a low tax (the minima are lower than current French) but paid for by all and based on the volumes consumed and not the amount of the invoice.

Losers in the rural

The European Commission said in Paris about the end of March, threatening to bring the case before the Court of Justice if the reform was not implemented within two months. For now, the government has not made a decision. But Bercy board on the subject. Indeed, a first draft was submitted to the consultation in late 2008 which set the fee to 8.50 euros per megawatt hour for households. A level calculated for the levy does not change.For Bercy is that the changeover from one system to another is painless for the French. But there will inevitably be losers: the inhabitants of the few municipalities, often rural, not applying EFT. Additional cost for a typical household of two children: about 25 euros per year. At a Senate hearing, Philippe Marini, the UMP rapporteur of the Budget, has proposed that, in this case, the application of the new tax should be spread over five years.

But there will also be winners, as second home owners, who will pay more than their consumption, whereas before the subscription was also submitted to the FTA and the Parisians, whose rate of TLE (13.2 %) was higher. Ultimately, all French people will be interested because the volumes consumed – using the new system – progress less rapidly than the bill that reflected higher prices. This does not relish the local politicians.Another uncertainty, Brussels does allow communities to adjust the tax? Apparently so. Finally, manufacturers will be exempt from TLE, themselves, pay the new tax. The final draft is not yet completed. And it is unlikely to be ready before the review in May and June, the bill on the organization of the electricity market. Especially if the government wants to resume consultations. The deadline is rather that the next draft budget law for 2011.

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Huge haul to the City

Wednesday, March 24th, 2010

Accused of laxity in recent years, the Constable of the British stock exchange and banks takes action. And hits hard. The Financial Services Authority (FSA) conducted yesterday in the arrest of six professionals from the City, after a commando operation, "the largest ever conducted in the context of a case of insider trading." The arrests come crown over two years efforts have gathered 143 of the FSA investigators and officers of a police unit attached to the Ministry of Interior.

London south-east England, computers and documents were seized sixteen addresses professional and personal. Of those arrested, one was working, according to the BBC, at Moore Capital, a hedge fund's most prominent in London guaranteed high risk personal loans .Two senior bankers from leading firms have also been arrested, said the FSA. These professionals are suspected of passing insider information to traders who have been through it, realize significant profits.

Earlier this month, the FSA had already ordered an ex-banker veteran Cazenove, broker to the queen. The UK intends to muscle its fight against market abuse. She plans to ask the firms in the City store and keep mobile phone conversations of some 16,000 employees.

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The CAC 40 ended in the 3900 points

Tuesday, March 16th, 2010

Ambiance morose Monday at the Paris Bourse. The CAC 40 has yielded 0.93% to finish the session at 3 890.91 points. The activity is particularly low, with about 2.5 billion traded on the great values of the Paris stock exchange. Other stock markets retreated in unison in London, the FTSE lost 0.57% and in Frankfurt the Dax dropped 0.70%. As for the European indices, the Euro Stoxx 50 index dropped 0.90%.

Caution was also needed on Wall Street before the meeting Tuesday of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Federal Reserve. In session, the Dow Jones lost 0.38% and 0.87% on Nasdaq. The Fed should keep its no surprise key interest rate, the interbank rate on a daily close to zero and reiterate its commitment to maintain a low level for a "prolonged period".More than the rate decision widely expected, investors will scrutinize the speeches of leaders of the U.S. central bank. They watch for a possible change in tone or vocabulary that could be the harbinger of early recovery in interbank rates, especially after raising the discount rate last month low fee cash advance .

Increased industrial production

The announcement Monday of a U.S. industrial production slightly exceeded expectations in February, rising for the eighth consecutive month, failed to take the course up.

In New York and Paris the past experts of raw materials and steel were under pressure, pulled down by rising greenback.Also note on Wall Street, as the parent company of Calvin Klein, the Philips-Van Heusen, jumped more than 10%. The group will buy the brand of leisure wear Tommy Hilfiger in UK investment funds Apax Partners, creating a new giant of the fashion and confirming thaw market mergers and acquisitions.

Banks that had climbed a lot these last time also suffered profit taking. Societe Generale has yielded 2.24%, 1.77% Credit Agricole and BNP Paribas 1.21%.

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The Paris Bourse expected in the green

Wednesday, January 20th, 2010

The Paris Bourse is expected in the green Tuesday. At just under two hours of opening, the Index Future CAC 40 gained 0.64% to 3979 points. The previous day, investors had concluded in Paris on the first day of the week in the green despite a sluggish trend in Asian places. The negative close on Wall Street Friday was forgotten (Monday, the U.S. places were closed due to holiday).

As for statistics, several publications are expected. The market index monitor consumer prices in December in Britain at 10:30 and the barometer of the financial German ZEW at 11am. Overseas will be issued at 16h index of investor confidence as measured by State Street.After exchange, the Americans 19h to unveil the long awaited housing market index, the National Association of Home Builders.

On the corporate side, the markets could be affected by the release of fourth quarter results from Citigroup to 14h. Friday, disappointing trial results from JP Morgan had weighed on the markets of Paris. IBM will release its results after the market closes.

Distributors monitored

Casino was released Monday after market its figures for the fourth quarter of 2009. The group has announced a turnover of 7.32 billion euros over the period, in line with expectations. But sales were lower in France.In its wake, the reaction of other distributors is expected.

Vinci said Monday night having won, in cooperation with the British Morgan is a contract of 476 million euros for the construction of a tunnel for stormwater and sewage to east London. The contract was awarded by Thames Water, the incumbent of the London waters, and will be shared equally between Vinci and the construction group Morgan Est.

GDF Suez said Monday in a statement that discussions toward an agreement with International Power had failed.

Guyenne et Gascogne has announced a turnover in the fourth quarter of 2009 rose 2.4% to 151.3 million euros. For the full year 2009, sales fell by 0.4% to 582.4 million euros.

Soitec has issued a revenue decrease of 9.3% in the third quarter and anticipates a fall limited to less than 10% for sales throughout the year.

The market also anticipates publications for 18h, after market, Alstom (turnover for the third quarter), Accor (fourth quarter), Faiveley (third quarter) and Seb (fourth quarter).

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California requires 500 million for growth

Saturday, January 9th, 2010

Addressing the parliamentary meeting Tuesday morning in the Capitol in Sacramento, the capital of California, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has called for a new recovery plan to save California from economic stagnation in which she remains entangled.

The governor of California last Wednesday in Sacramento. Photo credits: AP

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Occupation: No recovery until 2011

Friday, December 25th, 2009

The stabilization of the unemployment rate to 9.1% of the workforce, the French plunges further into the past: in early 2006, when the indicator peaked at a similar figure, before falling to unprecedented s 'is followed. In total, during the year 2009, the weak economy has had reason to 373,000 jobs, an increase in the number of job seekers by 20.3%. A particularly tough fall for the industry, which has accumulated during that dark year structural and cyclical crises, destroying nearly 100,000 jobs for the first half of 2009 alone.

Measures directly aimed at boosting the labor market, set up under the stimulus plan, however, seem to have limited the damage. "Put in connection with money taken by other countries, the stimulus is small.But the measures for use therein have been good "said Eric Heyer, Deputy Director at OFCE.

Offset

In total, the government estimates at 400,000 the number of jobs created or preserved by all actions taken under the recovery plan partial unemployment, subsidized contracts, extending device reclassification professional device "zero charge" for the 'hiring of an employee by TPE … -. If this figure is currently not verifiable, stabilizing unemployment announced by INSEE in the third quarter of 2009, and out of recession that began in the second, appear reassuring signals. … While analysts agree today to find that the adjustment of the labor market is still far from complete.

When is therefore a market recovery in employment and lower unemployment? Not before 2011, say the economists."Growth of 1.3% proposed by employment center for 2010 will not be sufficient to generate net new jobs," said Ernst and Bernard, director of statistics, surveys and forecasts for employment center. "Given the French productivity, only a growth above 2.5% would generate" confirms Eric Heyer, highlighting the gap of three quarters generally observed between resumed growth and lower unemployment rates. Same story with Nicolas Bouzou, economist at Altars, which estimates that unemployment will stabilize at best in 2010. "The problem is that this stabilization occurs at a high level," says he.

Brakes

Various factors should indeed help to limit the decline in unemployment in the months ahead.First, partial unemployment: as he has played a buffer role on the labor market by reducing redundancies, it should eventually stop the resumption of hiring. The 143,000 employees have benefited from the device indeed logically gather their full-time position, in priority to any additional recruitment. Second brake that is particularly Eric Heyer: the reinstatement of unemployment discouraged job seekers. "The stabilization of unemployment in the third quarter was partly due to traditional discouraged jobseekers less well positioned on the labor market.When the activity will leave, they re-subscribe, mechanically limiting the decline in unemployment. "An argument that employment center does not yet resumed its consideration.

If the unemployment rate should best pursue its stabilization in 2010, an additional shadow is looming: While the acceleration slows overall unemployment in recent months, the increase in long-term unemployed, who thus lose some little employability, increasing gradually. "The first people to find work are generally those who have been unemployed for some time. The number of long-term increases so mechanically, and should in this case continue to grow in first quarter 2010.

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