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Saturday, November 26th, 2011

Italy paid dearly Friday the stalemate of the crisis in the eurozone borrowing rates that have soared to record levels in a debt issue, following a mini-summit between Berlin, Paris and Rome, which has disappointed the markets.

Italian bond yields to six months jumped to 6.504% against 3.535% in a similar operation on October 26 while rates at two years have soared to 7.814% against 4.628%, unheard of since the creation of the euro area. These levels are considered unsustainable over time to the peninsula awash in a huge debt representing approximately 120% of its GDP.

The Treasury, however, managed to raise as planned EUR 10 billion with a demand remains strong make quick cash.

At the head of the country for less than two weeks, Mario Monti said on Thursday during a mini-summit in Strasbourg to the French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, that Italy would "do its homework "and take the objective of a balanced budget in 2013. A goal that will require the rapid adoption of new austerity measures.

Tackle pension reform

The draconian austerity plans adopted in July and September will indeed not sufficient when the latest statistics (consumption, industrial production) fuel fears of a recession into the third largest economy in the euro area.

All sorts of people need fast cash though are unwilling to compromise on interest rates. Naturally, the lower the interest rate, the better. Low rate payday loans are easy to access thanks to the Internet.

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Strike at Air France: the movement may harden

Sunday, October 30th, 2011

In the second of the five-day strike of cabin crew of Air France, the company promises, as before, to ensure 80% of its flights. Even if the unions, who believe that the movement is followed, announced an intensification of the mobilization against the proposed reduction in the number of cabin crew in some planes.

About 200 flights on the 1000 planned were canceled Saturday. "We have given the forecast. Saturday at midday, only 200 passengers 3,000 were in trouble, "noted the direction of the company. Air France has temporarily limited to 100 passengers the ability of its medium-haul flights from Orly to avoid having to put down passengers for lack of a sufficient number of hostesses and stewards. Result: Passengers waited. This strategy and the delays it caused affected customers were exasperated. "It's a nightmare bad credit payday loans. We have been waiting seven hours.Our flight departed. We could not board because Air France has focused on particular families. We were placed on a waiting list telling us that we might catch a plane at 12:30, chartered by another company. Shame, "railed one of them.

On the front of the long-haul Air France canceled at Paris ten flights especially to New York, Montreal, Los Angeles, Tokyo, Abu Dhabi, Douala.

Provided Air France does not rule out last-minute cancellations. Considerable uncertainty remains about the level of participation of PNC (cabin crew) in this movement, they are not obliged to prevent the company of their intentions. Moreover, unions provide them a "surge" of the movement. "All the volunteers PNC reserves are currently using," said Didier Foussat, the union FO.

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New sharp rise in unemployment in September

Thursday, October 27th, 2011

The news could not have come at a worse time. According to data recently published by the Ministry of Labour, the number of registered unemployed at the end of month employment center has increased again in September. And not a little: from 26,000 in Class A (unemployed who have not worked at all) and 27,600 in categories A, B and C (including job seekers who have had a reduced activity during the month ).

By category, so there is between 2.78 and 4.175 million unemployed in France. A level not seen since January 2000 in Class A and never reached at all, the combination A, B and C.Results for the six months to less catastrophic for the presidential and the more so as the number of registered unemployed in category D (that is to say, training, training, illness or device reclassification as contract Professional security and therefore not required to seek work), jumped 3.8% in September after several months of declines or relative stability. Proof, if needed, that the social treatment of unemployment on public money is well and truly left full in September.

In a statement, Xavier Bertrand "takes note of these poor figures related to the downturn." The Minister of Labour and Employment took the opportunity to recall the "absolute engagement" government "on the employment front, especially for young people."And for good reason: the number of under 25 not engaged in any activity which have registered at employment center grew 0.6% in September, bringing down over-year to 2% when it was over 6 % on the first months of the year.

It is mostly young men who enrolled en masse in September (1.3% against 0.1% for young women)."The new measures already in force of the law of 28 July 2011, including the ability to start an apprenticeship contract immediately without learning, practical solutions to the challenges made in the field should enable all young people wishing to enter alternately you can do, "warns, however, Xavier Bertrand.

Sudden economic downturn

The Minister did, however, no word in the direction of the unemployed and senior long-term which, when not hurt, have been hard hit by the economic downturn last month. The number of unemployed people over 55 increased by 2.1% in group A (a jump of 14.3% over one year) and that of long-term unemployed, 0.7%.

The cold shower is especially icy for job seekers registered for more than three years employment center (+2.5% on month and 21% year on year).Immediate consequence, the average length of employment center has yet to take one day at 456 (against 394 days two years ago), and the share of registered unemployed for over a year unemployed now stands at 38.2 %, up 8.5 points history since the beginning of the crisis.

Apart from the inscriptions following a redundancy which continue to decline (-2.5% over one month and 12% year on year), the other two main reasons for entry are on the rise: the purpose CDD (+4.5% on month and 9.7% year on year) and for temporary assignments (+0.3% in a month and 13.6% in twelve months).

As for administrative radiation, often a source of controversy, they are this time not in any case. They rose in effect from 4% in September and were virtually unchanged over the year.The other bad news, confirming the sudden economic downturn, concerns finally collected and vacancies filled by employment center that fell in September, respectively, 7.1 and 5.3% over one month.

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Why Europe is considered the village idiot world

Monday, October 17th, 2011

What is the country with the largest trade surplus? Germany, with 194 billion dollars over the last twelve months, ahead of China (173 billion). What is the state that attracts the most capital of the world? The Netherlands, where foreign direct investment to date some 3000 billion, far ahead of the United States (2.25 trillion), according to the review of the IMF. What is the country which hosts the most tourists? France has received 78.9 million last year, against 61 million for the United States.

Each of these expresses a form of performance excellence. Germany feeds her flawless manufacturing tradition since the industrial revolution. The Netherlands, taxation deliberately advantageous for multinational companies, is one of the hubs of global capitalism since its "golden age".The Hexagon cultivates an image of cultural universality and good living. Taken one by one, most Old World nations are doing much better than the European Union, or the idea of ​​it.

The Americans accused him of set themselves up as "fortress" when "big market" Europe was created in 1992. Now she is unable to defend its weak links, as révèlela sovereign debt crisis. Public deficits are, however, generally two to three times lower than those of the United States and Japan, as Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB president, continues to say. But markets look weak countries, not the average of a "Union" in front.

Europe is becoming "the global village idiot" in the words of Hubert Védrine, former foreign minister.He who has not grasped the rules and fails to protect its interests. This is particularly evident in relations with China, became the first trade and investment partner of the Old Continent. The EU has a trade deficit with China of 169 billion (in 2010) of similar magnitude to balance US-China (205 billion euros). But the complaints vis-à-vis Beijing are very far from achieving the shouts of Washington. The Committee of Foreign Trade of Parliament held on October 11 a special session on Sino-European trade.As responsible for relations with the Far East in the European administration, Helena König wanted to do things in perspective: "It is clear that for European companies in China is a source of profits" at she said, with emphasis on German and French companies in China. Certainly.

Unfair competition of the "Made in China"

This can not hide everything no fax cash advances. First of all the unfair competition of the "Made in China", which led last week the U.S. Senate to vote for the first time, a bill accusing Beijing of "manipulating its currency." Or access the Chinese market, fully controlled, as we see "a rush of China in Europe." This is the title of the study that came to write scathing François Godement Jonas Parello-Plesner and for the European Council on Foreign Relations. They describe an all-out acquisition strategy.The recovery of ailing brands such as Volvo and MG in the car, the establishment of SMEs. Beijing has established a fund of 2.8 billion euros to assist innovative German SMEs to develop partnerships with their Chinese counterparts. This may take the form of real industrial cities, as in Florence, on the outskirts of Florence, where 4 800 small businesses employing 40,000 Chinese expatriates in Mainland China are a bridgehead offshore.

Faced with this wave, "Europe has no information or regulations," stigmatizes Francois Godement. The Bulgarian ambassador in Paris, Marin Raykov, explains how his country, not having been able to interest the French car manufacturers, has brought the Chinese Great Wall Motor to manufacture cars in Bulgaria.Deindustrialization and fiscal difficulties of the southern states are an ideal soft underbelly.

With its 3.2 trillion (dollars) of foreign exchange reserves, Beijing appears in turn as the white knight to the rescue of Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Hungary. Last summer, a delegation from the Italian Treasury, modern-day Marco Polo, visited with great ceremony in Beijing to his court. It was rumored that the Chinese central bank holds 25% of all European public debt. Information without foundation, insists Francois Godement. Unlike the U.S. Treasury, following precisely the holding of Treasury bonds by Beijing and publishes its figures, Europe has no statistical tool.Like Greece, which has Eurostat in September 2004 that its accounts were rigged, had not a lesson.

This lack of information is a godsend for Beijing, which keeps his secret. What easy conquest, according to the principle of "divide and rule", as old as the Roman Empire, the British had returned to their use to colonize the Middle East.

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Soon a film based on the life of Steve Jobs

Monday, October 10th, 2011

Sony would be willing to pay one million dollars to acquire the rights to the only authorized biography of Steve Jobs. Conducted by the former editor of Time, Walter Isaacson, it is forthcoming. According to the site deadline.com, which revealed the existence of these negotiations, a source quoted by AP, the Japanese group is preparing to bring to the screen the existence of the co-founder of Apple.

The realization of "biopics" has already earned some success to Sony, as evidenced by The Social Network, chronic early Facebook around the personality of its founder, Mark Zuckerberg, who cardboard box office and won three Oscars.

Commercial success

As for Steve Jobs, his character had so far been brought to the screen only once, as part of an American TV movie focusing on the rivalry between Apple and Microsoft in the 1980s absolutely free credit score.The character of the co-founder of Apple was then played by the actor Noah Wyle, best known for his performance in the series Medical Emergency.

The biography of Steve Jobs also promises to be alone is a huge commercial success. The date of publication of this book of 750 pages, made from forty successive interviews Steve Jobs, has been repeatedly advanced. Initially planned for spring 2012, the release of Steve Jobs-not iSteve: the Book of Jobs, considered as a time will eventually take place on October 24 in the United States, said its U.S. publisher, Simon & Schuster. In France, the book came out at JC Lattes is scheduled for Nov. 2. A first printing of 500,000 copies is already planned.

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"The Italians can say thank you to the rating agencies'

Wednesday, October 5th, 2011

Lefigaro.fr – Italy can it fail?

Jean-François Jamet – Nobody knows. This is the total blur as both a politically and economically. This will depend on the coming weeks. Today, investors doubted the credibility of the Italian government of Silvio Berlusconi in particular, entangled in scandals about his private life. They do not believe in his ability to find consensus in the short term and implement structural reforms to end a decade of stagnation. Italy is in the situation of a country whose financial situation is very dependent on the psychology of financial markets: the deficit depends on interest rates payable on its debt.

What will happen if Italy does not make structural reforms?

Italian debt will eventually become unsustainable. The risk of panic can not then be excluded.It would then interest rates will soar as investors withdraw massive failure and would become a likely scenario. However, unlike Greece, the risk is lower. First, the country just to pay interest on public debt. Then Italy had a primary surplus, that is to say, it generates a budget surplus, excluding interest payments on public debt. And so if going to Italy the confidence of financial markets – that if the interest rate is not found at high levels (above 6% for bonds to 10 years) – it should not have difficult to stabilize its public debt.Finally, unlike Spain and Ireland, Italy has no problem with private debt.

Just accept the Italian population does a tax increase?

Italy is able to reform itself, it has proved in 1992 and 1993. But if she will be unable Silvio Berlusconi remains in office. The government's failure to carry out structural reforms to boost growth, coupled with the antics of "Il Cavaliere", eventually to exasperate the Italians. As in Spain, early elections must be organized. By this election, a new government must be established: either a national unity government, a government technique, including bureaucrats.This was the case in 1993, a year after the start of the crisis in Italy: the governor of the Italian central bank, no political label, was then elected Chairman and appointed several ministers among its senior officials instant personal loans guaranteed. The choice of a technical government would nevertheless be a sign that politicians have lost the hand and have not lived up issues.

Finally, is not it a blessing in disguise that the note of Italy was worse?

Paradoxically, Italy can probably say thank you to Standard & Poor's and Moody's. The deterioration of the Italian note the merit of the heart of the debate lack of credibility of Silvio Berlusconi and increase pressure for his departure.While it is regrettable that the rating agencies and interfere in the democratic, political pressure has been mounting in recent months with the electoral success of the opposition and critics of the Confindustria (Italian MEDEF) and even its own majority. One can also regret that the rating agencies and the European states have expected the crisis to sound the alarm about the structural problems that have existed for many years.

Europe can sustainably support it Italy?

It is already doing through the interventions of the European Central Bank to calm speculation on the Italian debt. Once the Member States of the euro area have all ratified the agreement reached in July, the European Financial Stability Fund will take over. However, this support to Italy by its European partners can only buy time.Only reforms and the return to growth will allow Italy to escape the trap of debt inherited from the patronage and corruption which had prevailed during the years 1970 and 1980.

* Author of Europe can do without an economic government? (French documentation, to be published October 10, 2011)

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The surprises of the Budget 2012

Friday, September 30th, 2011

The draft budget law for 2012 includes some measures "secondary" to note.

400 million of property disposals

The state continues to rationalize its real estate. For example, some services will leave from the Department of Budget rentals in 2012 in Paris and moved to a new building owned by the state to Ivry-sur-Seine. The result: an economy of rent of 24 million euros. Once the move made, 55% of the central administration of the Ministries of Economy and Budget work beyond the device. Justice must, too, leave the premises rented accommodation near the Place Vendome for a building purchased in a less prestigious neighborhood. The Ministry refused last year to relocate some of its troops Porte de Bagnolet and tried to impose a more stylish place, Porte de Versailles. But the MPs had set a stop."We will carefully consider the new proposals of the ministry. They have a budget of 160 million they will in no case exceed, "said Yves Deniaud, UMP deputy and president of the Real Estate Council of State.

Besides Paris, the restructuring of administrations in the region (with the merger of directions) can reduce office space. The state has released 146 504 m2 in 2010 and 46 383 m2 in 2009. In addition, 561 semi-public structures (ranging from museums to Météo-France) are now asked to have a good property management.

As in 2011, the government hopes that it will report sales of buildings 400 million in 2012. "The aim should be held this year," said Yves Deniaud.

More funds for the Senate, at least for the Elysée

The endowment will be paid to the Senate of 327 free business cards.7 million in 2011 to 333,600,000 in 2012.This 1.8% increase, after years of freezing, is related to the creation of five additional seats in the Senate. The allocation granted to the National Assembly is her stable at 534 million. This reduces the Elysee (112.3 million in 2011, 111.7 million in 2012, with travel costs down), as well as the Constitutional Council.

"Small taxes" various

Municipalities with forestry in 2012 will pay a fee of 2 euros per hectare. What to bring 5.6 million to the National Forestry Office (ONF). The visa fee regulation for foreigners pass him, from 220 euros to 340 euros.

Special pension schemes

The grant from the State for such schemes – funds RATP and SNCF in mind – will reach 6.6 billion, against 6 billion this year.This grant is intended to balance the books despite the demographic ratio (number of contributors / number of retirees) worse than in the general scheme.

Medical Insurance

Voted in the fall, but censored for reasons of form, the device liability insurance risk specialists (obstetricians at the top) is reintroduced at the time of this budget, as promised by the executive. The idea is to cover losses of more than 8 million euros via a common to all health professions. This allows pooling of contributions limited (15 to 25 euros a year according to the Government).

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The banking to the test

Thursday, September 29th, 2011

AND THREE! One by one the major French banks are going to Canossa and sacrifice to market a "piece" of their balance sheets. Faced with an earthquake and a tsunami regulatory markets, BNP Paribas, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole have now decided to haul down the wing, to reduce their credit or financial markets, so their ambitions.

Regulatory side, it is the new international financial rules – dubbed Basel 3 – exercising tremendous pressure. Before Basel 3, the balance of a bank should respond to a simple rule: for every 100 euros of assets, a bank must prove four euros of capital. Basel 3 is that floor to 7.50 euros (10 euros for the world's largest banks).In fact, walking is even higher, partly because the definition of capital has become more restrictive, because the requirements were noted in respect of the riskiest activities.

To comply with new rules, banks can either raise capital or reduce their activities. Until recently, they preferred the first option would have boosted capital by 2019 – the date of entry into force of Basel 3 – with the setting aside of the results and payment of dividends. It will actually go much faster – the Banque de France demands to be ready in 2013 – and in crisis. But the crisis, precisely, will weigh on results, and thus the ability to create capital.

An alternative course would be to raise fresh capital.But a capital increase – if it manages to attract investors very defiant towards the banking sector – would result, at the current share price, an unbearable dilution of existing shareholders, already battered.

There is therefore now no real choice but to reduce activity. What, specifically, means that Societe Generale, BNP Paribas and Crédit Agricole – like many others who have less news on the topic – "have both feet on the brake," says one industry expert small personal loans.

This has more or less impact. The political and financial authorities do not necessarily see a dim view that banks are reducing their market positions. They are more worried about the air pocket that is beginning to be felt on the structured credit or term loans, such as local authorities.

Three resources

But banks now have even less choice than the decrease in activity is also the most effective response to be made to the current liquidity crisis. Specifically, a bank finances its operations with three main resources: its capital, deposits and customer loans on the market, often for at least half of the balance sheet.

Or, take the market has become difficult and expensive. Difficult, because the widespread suspicion that affects the euro area discourages lenders from around the world to take risks, especially in respect of a banking sector by definition exposed to the debts of States.

Unable to borrow simply, banks have other options, more expensive, such as getting loans secured on assets. But again, the possibilities are reduced with the market value of assets.A good state of Italian example is now much less a guarantee that a few months ago. Moreover, if indeed it is … Every time a customer credit rating deteriorates a sovereign, then it erodes the capacity of refinancing of banks that hold. In this context, banks borrow more short-term before (which makes them more vulnerable) and more expensive, which degrades their margins, so their profits and their ability to produce new capital. Full circle …

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The Paris Bourse becomes nervous

Friday, September 16th, 2011

After a third round of chained up on Thursday, the CAC 40 is hesitant. In this Friday called "the four witches' mature futures in the U.S., which always increases volatility.

After opening up 1.21%, the benchmark index of the Paris Bourse is pressed into the red in the morning before showing a slight increase of 0.54% to 3062.14 points. Sign that markets are not completely reassured by the decision of the central bankers of the richest countries to mobilize to prevent the drying up of banks' liquidity in dollars. "There is no particular news. The market is perhaps a little profit after rising in recent days, "says Dov Adjedj, vendor shares at Aurel BGC.

In turn, other European financial centers are currently in the green: the Footsie-100 from the London Stock Exchange rose 0.84% ​​to 5382.27 points, the Dax in Frankfurt in 5570 to 1.14% , 82 points, but the Madrid Ibex-35 yields 0.17% at 8323.7 points while the FTSE Milan Mib rose 0.82% to 14,763.22 points.

Thursday night, the European Central Bank (ECB), the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, Swiss National Bank and the Bank of Japan reopened their facilities dollar loans to European institutions to three months, at their request . The decision was hailed by leading international institutions including the IMF, through its President Christine Lagarde: "This is a clear indication from the two largest euro area members of a economic point of view that Future of Greece is truly in the euro area.This appears to be strongly rooted in them both, "she said Thursday, referring to the Franco-German tandem. The same applies to the ECB: "We're all very closely 'united in one purpose'," said Thursday Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the ECB.

A meeting of finance ministers in Poland

Still, brokers are concerned that this improvement was not part of the time. "The coordinated central bank takes the market on Friday," noted Toshiyuki Kanayama, broker at Monex, quoted by Dow Jones Newswires. But this does not solve the problem of the euro area should have a temporary effect. "And for him to echo, the Austrian Minister of Finance, Maria Fekter, has not ruled on Friday that a failure of Greece is a better alternative to a bailout too expensive."We should consider this alternative," she started.

Suddenly, all eyes have turned to Wroclaw in Poland, where there is a meeting of EU finance ministers on Greece. It should last two days and overcome the remaining obstacles to the implementation of the second aid plan in Athens decided July 21 to avoid a bankruptcy of the country. Note that Timothy Geithneir, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, will attend the round table. Two press conferences are scheduled this Friday at 24:00 and 17:30.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro bought 1.3798 dollars, down 0.61%. Similarly, oil prices down slightly popped, a barrel of "light sweet crude" earned 5 cents to 89.33 dollars."This liquidity will likely prevent the recession to hit the euro area, supporting crude oil prices," said Victoire Shum, an analyst at Purvin and Gertz in Singapore.

On the macroeconomic front, the euro area recorded an external trade surplus 4.3 billion euros in July against 4.7 billion a year earlier, according to first estimates released Friday by the EU statistics office Eurostat .

In France, business start-ups in France rebounded in August after two months of decline. A total of 41,697 companies were created last month, according to Insee, a figure up 7.5% from July, which was the worst month for a year and a half.

In Germany, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said today that German GDP growth would be "closer to 3% than 2.5%" this year.This statement comes as concerns about the impact of cooling of the global economy on the German economy, heavily dependent on exports, are more vivid.

United States, the net capital flows and the index of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan will be published early in the afternoon.

Values ​​to follow

Banking

After the decision by central banks to help European banks, the banks were moving in a disorganized mid-session: Societe Generale (2.40% to 18.77 euros), Credit Agricole (-0.05% to 5 , 52 euros) and BNP Paribas (-1.61% to 30.01 euros)

Air France-KLM (1.39% to 6.14 euros) and EADS (-0.88 to 22.06 euros)

The manufacturer will control 50 devices equally between European manufacturers Airbus and Boeing, for a total of $ 11.3 billion (8.1 billion euros) to ensure the renewal of its fleet, say Les Echos to be published Friday.

Hermes (-7.10% to 249.25 euros)

Resumption of trading on Friday for the title of the luxury group, which was suspended the day pending the decision of the Court of Appeal in Paris on speculation about the fate of its capital due to a possible takeover bid by LVMH.

Areva (-1.62% to 20.66 euros)

The group has suspended two months for the production of two French factories processing of uranium due to the decline in demand for nuclear power plants in Japan after the disaster in Fukushima, officials said Thursday from the French nuclear group.

EDF (3.34% to 21.33 euros)

Group and Electrical Delmi A2A and its majority shareholder, who jointly control Edison, announced the extension of their shareholder agreement until October 31 at number two in the Italian electricity.

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Savers: Do not panic, but concern about the risks

Tuesday, September 13th, 2011

"Customers are asking us if they have to worry about. To reassure them, we remind the facts, we communicate on our exposure to Greece … our profitability, "said Jean-François Sammarcelli, Network Manager of Societe Generale France. He said the withdrawals are not more important than usual, as the bank continues to attract savings … but the wealthiest clients shall, as a precaution, to spread their cash across multiple institutions. "Those other banks have the same reaction. We therefore also take this opportunity, "he adds. This is a situation that the banks had already known in 2008.

In every European bank, customers benefit because in case of bankruptcy of a guarantee on their deposits: checking account, savings plans, deposit accounts, or bank books (excluding Livret A, guaranteed by the state).But it is capped at 100,000 euros per person.

In France, it is provided by the Guarantee Fund deposits, which now has … two billion euros. Obviously too small a sum to compensate customers of a major bank. "The fund is one of the best capitalized in Europe. And he may at any time raise additional capital or borrow from banks, "says Thierry Dissaux, CEO of the Guarantee Fund deposits. In practice, its mission is primarily to avoid the worst, by participating in the rescue of troubled institutions before it is too late.

Life insurance affected?

And it is ultimately the more reassuring for the French: none imagine that the state gives up a large bank low fee payday advance. The debate, which opened this weekend on the assumption of a partial nationalization in point.Some investors wonder, them, especially the fate of their contract of life insurance. Although insurers claim to have little Greek bonds, a default of Athens served diminish returns to investors. Yields as affected by the collapse of the Exchange.

Insurers also hold, in proportions much larger government borrowing Italian or Spanish. If concerned about this exposure to sovereign debt, and disappointed by the declining returns of their investment favorite, the French withdrew their money en masse, insurers could be forced to sell their assets at the worst time. "We're not there. Withdrawals from the contracts increases for two years, partly because the holders of life insurance age and draw on their savings to finance their retirement, "said Chistophe Eberle, President Optimind, actuarial consulting firm.But insurers still manage the risk. "In 2008, the drying up of liquidity in the markets had led to withdrawals from the contracts. In our funds in euros, so we decided to keep cash in the interests served by our bond portfolios, to be ready to face any withdrawals, "says Sonia Fendler, General Heritage.

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