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Pussyfooting on Wall Street

Wednesday, July 28th, 2010

The U.S. stock market started in the red on Wednesday, in an atmosphere remained febrile for several major events at the macroeconomic level. But shortly after, the indexes are spent in the light green: the Dow Jones gleaning 0.05% to 10,543 points, the S & P's advance of 0.17% to 1115 points and the Nasdaq is up 0.14% to 2292 points.

New orders for durable goods in the U.S. declined for the second consecutive month in June, official statistics show released Wednesday, confirming a slowdown in growth in the second quarter. The Commerce Department reported a decline of 1% of these orders, the highest since August 2009, after a decline of 0.8% (revised) in May Analysts on average had forecast an increase of 1% in June

On Tuesday, the NYSE has closed in a fragmented, divided between publications very positive company like DuPont chemist, and the downturn in consumer confidence in July.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro remains at its highest levels for two months around $ 1.30.

At the macroeconomic level, the U.S. central bank must now publish its Beige Book on economic conditions. It will be very guarded while the president of the institution, Bernanke said there is just one week before the Congress, the slow recovery, with no announcement of new funding in the economy.But it was the day Friday with the first estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) that will attract the attention of investors instant payday loan no TeleCheck.

Cephalon shunned after his semi

On the side of values, the telecom equipment maker Broadcom (+0.08% to 37.56 U.S. dollars) yesterday announced the closure of Wall Street quarterly profit of $ 278 million, against $ 13.4 million the year last.Turnover was up 54% (+10% sequentially) to $ 1.6 billion.

Note also the biotechnology group Cephalon (-3.23% to 60.87 dollars) has published a quarterly profit of $ 89.1 million, well above expectations.

Always on the side of values, the Wall Street Journal, the Google Internet Group (+0.03% to 492.75 dolars) is in talks with several publishers of video games in order to enlist their support for the implementation Length of service to rival social network Facebook.Some game publishers approached by Google Playdom be included, a publisher whose Disney announced the acquisition Tuesday, Playfish, bought last year by Electronic Arts, and Zynga, in which Google has already invested, it said.

For its part, the Microsoft IT group (-0.31% to 26.08 dollars) has criticized the partnership between Yahoo! Japan and Google, saying it would end the competition in the internet search in Japan and has questioned its "legality".

Also note, the oil group BP (-1.32% to 34.5 U.S. dollars) will have to "change the culture" after the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, said its new CEO, American Bob Dudley at of an interview on ABC.

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"The Chinese economy should be consolidated"

Friday, July 23rd, 2010

lefigaro.fr / jdf.com – The slowdown in China is it disturbing for the world economy?

Yi Tang – Rather than "slow", I prefer to use the term "consolidation". China has still a yoy growth of 10.3% in the second quarter. The Chinese economy has certainly been a highest of 11.9% in the first quarter of this year and two of the three engines of China's economic growth in infrastructure investment and consumption have in fact seen their share in gross domestic product ( GDP) decline, while exports increased. But this consolidation is a natural and even necessary to avoid overheating. Note that the consolidation levels are higher than last year at the same time.Now, the year 2009 was so exceptional for the Chinese economy as a result of comparison with this year will necessarily be less favorable. We expect GDP% between 9 and 10% in 2010 to China.

What impact is there on the Chinese stock markets?

Paradoxically, since the confirmation of the consolidation of the Chinese economy, Asian stock markets' performance rather positive. However, fears of overheating and "double dip" (recession followed by recovery and then a new relapse) had plagued the financial markets and new opportunities for the long-term investors on the Shanghai and Scholarships Hong Kong. We encourage individuals to return to Chinese equities from one or two months and are positive for twelve or eighteen months.We also note that investors have a vision of increasing long-term actions, while so far the Chinese were accustomed to behave as short-term approach and more sheepish than international investors. He must be aware of that being a portfolio manager is very young in this country: the first asset management companies in China were introduced in 1998.

The change of status of China, which moves from an economy driven by exports to an economy supported by domestic consumption, he will offer new opportunities for investors?

Absolutely. This change is very positive for China and especially since it is now confirmed. The country has long said he would change the economic model without it being proved by the figures. Quite the contrary. The share of domestic consumption in GDP fell between 2001 and 2007.But since 2008, the government has clearly realized its desire to boost domestic demand by increasing spending on health and grants for education or for poorer totally free credit score.

This change will he impact your portfolio allocation?

We will clearly strengthen us in the consumer values. Our specialists will visit various areas of the region and identify trends. We are generally positive on the cyclical sectors in which the valuations are relatively attractive.

We will also strengthen the real estate industry. Three months ago, the government has taken a series of measures in this field. While the sector has seen massive sales, we have to position ourselves.Since April, we recorded an increase of 20% for a pocket which represents only 6% of our portfolio. Finally, we are strengthening in the commodities sector, because we thought that economic activity remains strong in China, and that the sector is oversold.

Conversely, we will reduce the share of defensive stocks such as pharmaceuticals (6.5% to 2%) and telecommunications (15% to 12/13%), for which we won respectively 40% and 50% and between 11% and 20%. We believe, unlike other managers forced to remain invested through management benchmarked, that valuations are too high now. For the first time we have seen in China as heads of companies bought back shares with their own money. This confirms our fundamental belief that companies are good and that the Chinese economy remains in good health.Rather than trying to replicate the performance of an index, we prefer to focus on the fundamentals of companies and their level of recovery.

Agricultural Bank of China could become the biggest IPO. Have you positioned in this title?

We have not invested in Agricultural Bank of China because we believe that the action is too expensive. Moreover, we do not, in general, the market capitalization as a criterion for management. We are lacking in banking stocks for nearly two years, but gradually reinvest in this sector. If the fundamentals of the Chinese economy evolve only very rarely, the value of its businesses varies, it very quickly. We will focus again to the Agricultural Bank of China, where the valuations of financial stocks will be more attractive.

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Wall Street is evolving in a piecemeal

Monday, July 12th, 2010

The caution is in U.S. markets on Monday. As we enter the ball of the first quarterly results on Monday, including Alcoa's after-hours trade, the U.S. markets move in an uncoordinated manner. The Dow Jones lost 0.09% to 10,189 points, in contrast, the Nasdaq advance of 0.56% to 2209 points and the S & P 500 gained 0.01% to 1078 points. Friday, Wall Street closed higher in very small volumes before the opening of the quarterly earnings season. The Dow Jones rose by 0.58% at 10,197 points, the Nasdaq 0.97% to 2196 points and the Standard & Poor's 500 by 0.72% to 1077 points.

The euro under $ 1.26

On the foreign exchange market, the euro has further retreated from Monday to below $ 1.26, on a foreign exchange market characterized by a weaker yen due to the electoral defeat of the ruling party in Japan and Pending results of the first companies in the United States.In the eurozone, the key event of the week will be put on the market for Treasury bills Greek tomorrow, the first since the announcement of the bailout of the European Union and the IMF in May

The week will be rich in promises of economic indicators in North America. In addition to the cascade of results expected in the coming days, markets will look especially to the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.They will look particularly at whether the Fed fears that the crisis of sovereign debt in Europe weigh on U.S. growth.

The ball starts quarterly results

In the absence of major macroeconomic publications on Monday, the market should focus on the first quarterly results announcements in the United States.

As always, the kick the ball in quarterly results, will be given by the aluminum giant Alcoa today after closing. Follow in the week the groups technology Google, AMD or Intel, and banks JPMorgan and Bank of America. The figures will be scrutinized with JPMorgan special attention because many investors believe that it is the financial will signal a rebound in real markets.

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Brussels puts Google and Facebook in its sights

Saturday, July 10th, 2010

The threat of an investigation Brussels comes from Google. Wednesday at a symposium on digital media organized by the University College London, Joaquin Almunia, Vice-President of the European Commission responsible for Competition, said the complaints carefully examine the American search engine was the subject in Brussels. Last February, the Commission announced a query to Google after receiving complaints from the price comparison site UK Foundem, legal search engine ejustice.fr and compare prices at Ciao, a subsidiary of Microsoft.

"My services are currently examining allegations of anticompetitive conduct in the field of online research. The work is at a preliminary stage, but given the importance of online research on a competitive digital market, I look at these allegations very carefully, "said Joaquin Almunia.Without mentioning Google by name, the European envoy said that "the first search engine in Europe has a market share of 95%.

He also wondered about the possible manipulation of search engine results, while "information flows more quickly over the Internet." Finally, he noted that if the Web services differ, they are very likely to opt for the same business model: the monetization through advertising. A market where Google is also present through the marketing of listings.

Facebook in the viewfinder

The speech wrapped kits diplomatic caution suggests difficult days for Google, which could suffer the same fate that other giant U.S. technology in Brussels.Methodically pursued by the European Commission for ten years for abuse of dominant position, Microsoft has been fined for an amount of 1.68 billion euros.

Google, for its part, denies any evil intent. "We have always worked hard to ensure our success was gained in a fair, through technological innovation and good products, rather than the confinement of our users or advertisers, or creating artificial barriers to entry, "stated the group after the filing of complaints to Brussels in February.

If the question of Google has become the most urgent, Brussels is not only concerned the latter's dominance in online search. Social networks are also in the crosshairs of Joaquin Almunia. European number one, Facebook has a market share of 70%, he believes.But "changing search engine may seem easy enough. Changing social network is more difficult because of the effects of stronger networks and data portability, "says the vice-president of the Commission. Another concern: "The online advertising market is it the same when the advertising is broadcast on search engines or social networks?"

In the case of Google as Facebook, Brussels fears that having acquired strong positions in their respective markets allows these players to capture other activities.

The rating agencies squabble

Friday, July 2nd, 2010

Is this a declaration of war? A sneak attack against a competitor already criticized from all sides? Rating agency Standard & Poor's announced mid-week she placed the note in its rival Moody's under review with negative implications. Translation: "S & P is considering lowering the rating of its counterpart.

Standard & Poor's predicted an earthquake in the scoring in the United States. She believes that the current reforms on the financial regulation in the United States threatens the business of Moody's. For example, "investors may sue the agencies in the event of fraudulent or reckless notation, notes S & P, which" increased legal costs of Moody's "dramatically," says S & P.

Moody's might also face a drop in sales, ahead its competitor.New laws in effect remove the references to footnotes in regulatory agencies and investors could then no longer need their services.

Black Series

The decision by Standard & Poor's added to the long series of bad news qu'essuient its competitor. In recent months, Moody's has seen some of its former analysts testify against her before the U.S. Senate. One of its main shareholder, billionaire Warren Buffett, has withdrawn in part. And the agency was roundly criticized by some investors for notes attributed too generous to Greece, Portugal or Spain. When she does not suffer from the wrath of authorities for the untimely degradation States Notes.

Logically, these arguments on the ratings business in general, thus also relates to Standard & Poor's."This decision serves as a warning signal for the whole sector," Norbert Gaillard analysis, an economist and specialist agencies. The agencies are so far very profitable, with operating margins (operating income compared to the number of cases) between 30 and 40%.

Concerns about the sector

The agency draws she shot in the foot by publicly worrying about the future of its industry? Yes and no. If she criticizes his rival, it is mainly because the turnover of the latter depends on more than 90% of rating business alone. This is not the case of S & P. "She has put in place, long ago, a diversified business model (financial, S & P 500), regulatory reforms under threat," said Norbert Gaillard.

Moody's will be difficult to replicate its rival news: it is not publicly traded, it is backed by a large group, McGraw Hill. And if attacked, S & P will always assert its good faith by recalling that it had downgraded the rating of its own parent a few years ago.

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The Paris Bourse should pause

Thursday, June 10th, 2010

The CAC 40 was up Wednesday night supported the closure through the reassuring words of Ben Bernanke, the Fed chief, after three consecutive sessions of decline. Other major European markets have also hoisted the green flag. In Frankfurt, the Dax gained 1.98%. In London, the Footsie has won 1.15%.

Even mood on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones gained 1.16% and the Nasdaq 1.66% shortly after the close of European stock.

And Thursday morning, Asian stock markets confirms the renewed investor optimism. The indices are displayed in positive territory while a series of good gives figures balsam inside investors.

U.S. growth is reassuring, Ben Bernanke also

Published yesterday, the Fed's Beige Book confirmed an increase in economic activity in the United States without signs of inflation, reinforcing the idea that the Fed is in no hurry to raise interest rates.The Federal Reserve announced it was expecting a GDP of 3.5% for 2010 and "somewhat" more in 2011. In May, the Fed was between 3.4% and 4.5% for 2011.

Its chairman, Ben Bernanke, indqiué he remains attentive to the evolution "of the situation abroad. His comments are aimed at Europe in turmoil budget. He said however, "reassured by the answers of Europeans," holding that they have developed a "substantial program.

The economic indicators of importance

Industrial production in France in April will be known at 8:45. At the same time, figures on employment in the first quarter will be released by INSEE.

In Frankfurt, while it is held by the Governing Council, Jean-Claude Trichet, head of the European Central Bank, will deliver the Bank's decision on interest rates to 1% today.A status quo is preferred.

Like every Wednesday, the weekly unemployment benefit claims in the United States will be published at 14.30. The figures on foreign trade in April will be known at the same time.Then, 20 hours, investors will follow the budget execution figures for the month of May

Japan remains the second largest economy after the United States, while the revised official figures and show a growth of 5% in the first quarter of 2010.

France Telecom, one aggrégateurplus a producer

Value-laden France Telecom, which held its annual meeting Tuesday, it appeared necessary to adapt its strategy contained in the competitive environment and has therefore become more assertive as an aggregator and as a producer, said Wednesday Stéphane Richard, his manager General at the General Assembly no teletrack payday loan.

In addition, the telecom authority (Arcep) on Wednesday defended a regulatory context to counterbalance the dominance of France Telecom in the telephony market in France.

Air France-KLMSelon information Figaro, Ethiopian Airlines is preparing to sign an agreement with Star Alliance to join the alliance dominated by Lufthansa. Air France is being shaken to its network and the most profitable.

Total oil group participates in the construction of a solar concentrator 100 megawatts in Abu Dhabi, the largest in the world.

Renault head to change the financial department. Thierry Moulonguet will be replaced by the CEO of RCI Banque.

Imerys The Strategic Investment Fund (ISF) has announced Wednesday the fall departure of chief executive Gilles Michel, who will join the group of industrial minerals and construction materials, which is expected to become CEO in 2011, to succeed Gerard Buffière.

The Auchan retail group and its Taiwanese partner Ruentex preparing to list their Chinese activities on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong, according to Les Echos published Wednesday. A first for the family business.

French Members Banks, which begin Thursday in open discussion of the draft law regulating banking and finance, also want to discuss with the Government of the German measure to ban naked short selling.

EADS Eurofighter has launched negotiations with Germany, Spain, Britain and Italy to convince these countries to invest 10 billion euros in the next phase of production of its combat aircraft.

Moreover, during the Berlin Air Show, Louis Welsh, the executive chairman said he was "delighted if we could forge a partnership with Embraer, the Brazilian counterpart, said FinanzNachrichten.

The form that could take this partnership has not been specified. In the past, EADS has held a minority stake in Embraer, which he sold in 2007.

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The CAC 40 start up supported

Wednesday, May 19th, 2010

If the benchmark index of the Paris meeting begins on Tuesday backed an increase, from 1.22% to 2586 points, it is not immune to a further sharp correction. The CAC 40 is moving in a technical area fragile. On Monday evening, the CAC 40 closed Monday evening at 3543 points (-0.47%), or under 3550 points. The Nikkei in Tokyo closed scrounge 0.07% and the Dow Jones U.S. who nibbled 0.05%.

From a perspective of technical analysis in the medium term, the underlying trend is now clearly negative and the real threat is a return to the starting point of the upward movement engaged in July 2009 around 2960 points.

The euro, deemed a "credible currency" by Jean-Claude Juncker, the leading ministers of the euro area as a result of the Eurogroup meeting started Monday night, continues to rate to $ 1.23 either a low of four years.On Tuesday morning, about 9:15, it's 1.7378 dollars.

Such a drop in the euro (-13.5% since January 1) may in fact give the boost needed to recover a bit better in Europe. This is the principle of competitive devaluation.

The finance ministers have wanted Sixteen reassuring and felt that the new savings measures announced by Spain and Portugal are "courageous".

For its part, the ECB (European Central Bank) acquired for 16.5 billion euros in government bonds – a symbolic amount – while taking the same amount of liquidity to avoid any debate that the ECB would finance European countries' debts, and leave the spinning inlation upward.

Statistics follow

In France, INSEE release its flash estimate of employment in the first quarter of 2010.In Germany, the famous Zew index, closely watched, will be unveiled at 11:00.

In the euro zone foreign trade for the month of March will be released at 11:00. Same time, inflation in April for its second estimate.

In the U.S., the housing starts in April will be announced at 14:30, and the producer price for the same period.

If these statistics are usually scrutinized by investors for their decisions on markets, movements of the euro have largely taken over in recent sessions.

No decrease in the CAC 40 SBF 120 or on the

Among the strongest increase in the CAC 40 on Tuesday morning, SocGen takes the top spot, up from 3.64% to 36.7 euros, followed by Credit Agricole (3% to 9.8 euro) then Vallourec (+2.9% to 157.7 euros).U.S. President visits one of its seamless tube mill in Ohio.

No value will decline, or on the CAC 40, nor on the SBF 120.

On this last index, Sperian Protection climbed 7.9%, NicOx takes a bit of color: 4.7%, to 2.44 euros and Altran rises 3.5% to 3.7 euros.

Veolia: towards a big contract?

Veolia is about to win a giant contract to supply drinking water Ile-de-France, Les Echos reported on the front page of their Tuesday edition. Titles rise of 1.44% to 21.41 euros.

According to Le Figaro, the airline Air France-KLM (2.03%, to 10.2 euros) prepare a plan of reconciliation counters Air France, KLM, Alitalia and Delta in most European airports, and so remove agencies. 300 jobs could be lost, but not dismissal.Furthermore, the cargo branch of the air group has seen its business drop by 22% last year and has registered 499 million loss, or over a third of the 1.3 billion loss that the group will announce Wednesday.

Accor Services, the service arm of the Accor group (1.86%, to 41.1 euros) wants to accelerate growth, make acquisitions and expand into new countries, according to the prospectus for the Financial Markets Authority ( AMF) on Monday. Accor will hold a press conference at 8:30 on the demerger and listing of branch services provided July 2.

Axa Private Equity, a subsidiary of the insurance group Axa (1.88%, to 13.25 euros), announced Monday it had completed the acquisition of Go Voyages by taking a majority stake in the French specialist for booking tickets line.

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The May 1 marches less filled than last year

Saturday, May 1st, 2010

Mobilization "significant" according to unions, but still significantly lower than last year. Despite the thorny issue of pension reform, the traditional procession of May 1 did not fill, bringing some 350,000 people across France, according to the CGT, against 1.2 million people a year ago.

Trade unions, left parties and student organizations were called to take to the streets, in the words of Secretary General of the CGT, Bernard Thibault, "create a balance of power in discussion" with the government. The pension reform is expected before the end of the year and a new appointment office at the Elysee Palace will be held prior May 10

For its part, Workers Power had returned to tradition by going it alone.Its secretary general, Jean-Claude Mailly, said Saturday morning on Europe-1 radio that "the repeated demonstrations will not shake the government" on the proposed pension reform fast cash.

"Putting pressure on politicians'

In Paris, between 21,000 protesters and police said 45,000 people marched from one union between the Place de la R?publique and the Op?ra, against 160,000 in 2009 according to the CGT.In the march included union leaders sat Bernard Thibault (CGT), Fran?ois Ch?r?que (CFDT), Alain Olive (UNSA), Annick Coupe (Solidarity) and Bernadette Groison (FSU), as well as student union UNEF Jean-Baptiste UNL schoolboy Antoine Prevost Evennou.

In Toulouse, between 5,000 people, police and organizers said 6,000 marched in the rain Saturday morning, behind a banner of the Inter-CGT, CFDT, FSU, UNSA and Solidarity proclaiming: "All public-private jobs, wages, pensions and retirement. A procession much shorter than last year, when there were between 15,000 and 30,000 participants according to sources.

Parade and sparse rainfall in Lyon.

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Assistance from IMF will not be immediate

Saturday, April 24th, 2010

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just been presented with a request for assistance from Greece. Until now, the IMF provided only technical assistance to Athens. The team of experts is hard at work in the capital of Greece. "We are ready to act quickly in response to this demand," said Dominique Strauss-Kahn Friday, IMF Managing Director. And Youssef Boutros-Ghali, chairman of the board of the institution, recalled: "Aid to Greece will take time. This can not happen from one day to another. "Especially since the Papandreou government is engaged in negotiations on a plan" covering several years. "

So far, the IMF had not been involved in developing the plan of the European Union. This is not a member of the board of the fund. The proposals could therefore engage the IMF, said it does in Washington.It is expected to "several weeks" of negotiations no teletrack payday loans. The amount of the full plan could exceed the record $ 58 billion set by Korea in 1997 with the conditions negotiated by the IMF.

The multilateral institution also assumed that the share of aid to Greece will represent one third of the package agreed by the other countries of the euro area. But this figure could possibly change after the verdict of the negotiators of the fund. The absence of a margin for adjustment by devaluation, however, seriously complicates the terms that the IMF should negotiate with the Greek authorities.This is not entirely without precedent: for example, Latvia has received 1.7 billion euros from the IMF in 2008, as part of an international package of 7.5 billion, while keeping its currency indexed euro.

The departments affected by the crisis

Friday, April 23rd, 2010

Yes, some departments are in a precarious financial situation: this is the observation made by Pierre Jamet, Director General Services of the Rhone, in its report submitted Thursday to Prime Minister. But the social and demographic constraints do not explain everything. The report studied eleven departments – eight rural and three urban – handicapped by a high proportion of elderly people, high unemployment, household income below average and low density. The Correze and Creuse, both on the left are in this case. But only the first situation is worrying. The difference? The Creuse is little debt, if the Correze. The scenario is repeated between Pas-de-Calais and a virtuous Val-d'Oise debt.Moral: the policy choices have weighed heavy.

As for the Seine-Saint-Denis, "for four months, it has a 32% increase in revenue from estate duty, with a recovery of real estate," says Pierre Jamet. Understood, this department alone has passed a 2010 budget in balance – an act widely publicized by the President PS council, Claude Bartolone – is no longer in danger. In contrast, a dozen others may fail to maintain their balanced budget during the year, due to slippage in social spending. "We must therefore establish a monitoring committee at the government level. And the State will assist in June or July to emergency departments, by advances of funds by contributions, or even "recommends Pierre Jamet. Estimated boost: maximum 100 million euros.

Cost Standards

Nothing says that the government will retain this recommendation. For now, Francois Fillon has agreed only to launch in May a consultation with the Assembly of the departments of France. Matignon prefer to retain other recommendations: curbing the proliferation of standards and highlight good practices, including the cost of administering benefits. Pierre Jamet also insists on including the need for effective monitoring computer: "A software company has crossed the files of the RSA family benefit fund with those of a department. In 67 000 110 000 records, differences have emerged "in the name, address or income … In the longer term, the report recommends improving the redistribution of wealth between departments.The latest proposal is not as uncontroversial: that the career firefighters is managed by the local government service, rather than headquarters.

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