S & P is the second rating agency to downgrade the American note, after the Chinese – less powerful – Dagong, others – mainly the U.S. Moody's and Fitch French – for the time remaining in triple A. Now rated AA + long term debt of the United States remains in the investment category of "high quality" and joined the second and third world economies, namely China and Japan, as well as Belgium, Spain , Israel, Taiwan, or even oil-rich countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
But it is possible to recover the triple A when it was lost. Canada, Australia, Denmark, and Sweden Finande did. Of course, the United States will do everything to return to their "AAA" precious. But the task will be tough, as it will maintain over the long term, strong pressure on fiscal discipline while scaffolding better understanding at the political level.
Political consensus to find absolutely
Indeed, in the case of their Canadian neighbors, the return of Triple A in 2002, had been lost – again by S & P – in 1992 on its debt denominated in foreign currency, was possible thanks to the introduction of fiscal measures severe that the subject of a strong national consensus, which seems far from possible for the United States.
Similarly, three Scandinavian countries also known for their ability to consensus politics have seen their efforts to improve public finances crowned by the return of a "triple A" lost year 1990: Denmark 2001, Finland in 2002 and Sweden in 2004.
Australia is one model may be more difficult to imitate. This country has lost in the 1986 'AAA' rating assigned to its foreign currency by S & P, to find him in 2003.During these 17 years, Canberra has demonstrated fiscal discipline inflexible, stopping in 1997 to increase the amount of its debt in dollars. Growth has surged with the transformation of the economy, modernization of the financial system, deregulation of many sectors that had lost their competitiveness and development of a powerful mining industry has benefited from China's economic takeoff.
Economy to restart
Jean-Michel Six, chief economist for Europe Standard & Poor's has expressed in the columns of Le Figaro, six months ago that the economic figures released in the United States show that the country remains fragile, particularly at the front of the employment and real estate. "In the U.S., including employment prospects are very disappointing."While yesterday (Friday), the figures – the United States have created 117,000 jobs in July – have eliminated any disaster scenario on the U.S. labor market, performance is modest. As for household consumption, "it is significantly weakened by the debt levels of Americans," added the specialist. Overall, "the year 2011 should result in a 2% growth, which is very disappointing for the U.S., where the pace of activity is generally much higher than in Europe."
According to the latest figures on U.S. growth, GDP grew by only 1.3% annual rate. Economists expected a 1.8% increase. Worse, the growth of the first three months of the year, previously estimated at 1.9%, was revised sharply downwards to 0.4%. And the largest economy in the world did she not really recovered from the 2008 crisis.Fears of a slowdown in U.S. growth, and global markets have panicked the last ten days.
Fiscal side, the U.S. accumulated a debt exceeding GDP are: since August, the debt ratio exceeds 100%, as is the case in Japan or Greece.
ALSO READ:
"The U.S. debt above 100% of GDP
"INTERVIEW -" The signals on growth are not good "
"Beijing tance Washington about its debt