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The CAC 40 start up supported

Wednesday, May 19th, 2010

If the benchmark index of the Paris meeting begins on Tuesday backed an increase, from 1.22% to 2586 points, it is not immune to a further sharp correction. The CAC 40 is moving in a technical area fragile. On Monday evening, the CAC 40 closed Monday evening at 3543 points (-0.47%), or under 3550 points. The Nikkei in Tokyo closed scrounge 0.07% and the Dow Jones U.S. who nibbled 0.05%.

From a perspective of technical analysis in the medium term, the underlying trend is now clearly negative and the real threat is a return to the starting point of the upward movement engaged in July 2009 around 2960 points.

The euro, deemed a "credible currency" by Jean-Claude Juncker, the leading ministers of the euro area as a result of the Eurogroup meeting started Monday night, continues to rate to $ 1.23 either a low of four years.On Tuesday morning, about 9:15, it's 1.7378 dollars.

Such a drop in the euro (-13.5% since January 1) may in fact give the boost needed to recover a bit better in Europe. This is the principle of competitive devaluation.

The finance ministers have wanted Sixteen reassuring and felt that the new savings measures announced by Spain and Portugal are "courageous".

For its part, the ECB (European Central Bank) acquired for 16.5 billion euros in government bonds – a symbolic amount – while taking the same amount of liquidity to avoid any debate that the ECB would finance European countries' debts, and leave the spinning inlation upward.

Statistics follow

In France, INSEE release its flash estimate of employment in the first quarter of 2010.In Germany, the famous Zew index, closely watched, will be unveiled at 11:00.

In the euro zone foreign trade for the month of March will be released at 11:00. Same time, inflation in April for its second estimate.

In the U.S., the housing starts in April will be announced at 14:30, and the producer price for the same period.

If these statistics are usually scrutinized by investors for their decisions on markets, movements of the euro have largely taken over in recent sessions.

No decrease in the CAC 40 SBF 120 or on the

Among the strongest increase in the CAC 40 on Tuesday morning, SocGen takes the top spot, up from 3.64% to 36.7 euros, followed by Credit Agricole (3% to 9.8 euro) then Vallourec (+2.9% to 157.7 euros).U.S. President visits one of its seamless tube mill in Ohio.

No value will decline, or on the CAC 40, nor on the SBF 120.

On this last index, Sperian Protection climbed 7.9%, NicOx takes a bit of color: 4.7%, to 2.44 euros and Altran rises 3.5% to 3.7 euros.

Veolia: towards a big contract?

Veolia is about to win a giant contract to supply drinking water Ile-de-France, Les Echos reported on the front page of their Tuesday edition. Titles rise of 1.44% to 21.41 euros.

According to Le Figaro, the airline Air France-KLM (2.03%, to 10.2 euros) prepare a plan of reconciliation counters Air France, KLM, Alitalia and Delta in most European airports, and so remove agencies. 300 jobs could be lost, but not dismissal.Furthermore, the cargo branch of the air group has seen its business drop by 22% last year and has registered 499 million loss, or over a third of the 1.3 billion loss that the group will announce Wednesday.

Accor Services, the service arm of the Accor group (1.86%, to 41.1 euros) wants to accelerate growth, make acquisitions and expand into new countries, according to the prospectus for the Financial Markets Authority ( AMF) on Monday. Accor will hold a press conference at 8:30 on the demerger and listing of branch services provided July 2.

Axa Private Equity, a subsidiary of the insurance group Axa (1.88%, to 13.25 euros), announced Monday it had completed the acquisition of Go Voyages by taking a majority stake in the French specialist for booking tickets line.

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A French 31-year involvement in the case of Goldman Sachs

Saturday, April 17th, 2010

Goldman created a financial product

Since 2004, Wall Street has found a new Eldorado, CDOs (collateral debt obligation). These financial products assembled from scratch, called "synthetic" because they only reflect the value of other real assets, they, as loans granted to low-income households, the famous subprime. In 2007, Goldman Sachs creates such mass-produced and dubbed "Abacus".

The needs of a large customer

Paulson & Co is the time a small hedge fund. It will become one of the biggest thanks to its bet on the decline in U.S. housing. In the year 2007, his boss will cash alone a profit of some 3.7 billion dollars and will save 15 billion to its customers! The SEC in 2006, Paulson & Co has the right intuition that the subprime market is fragile. He put on his fall.Its Paris can take two forms: buy CDS (credit default swaps), the "insurance" against default that will naturally grow in value when the risk will increase, or "short" CDOs, that is ie sell futures without holding them.

A French in the loop

Paulson & Co. is not alone in feeling the wind change on CDOs. At Goldman, you think too. This is particularly the case of a young French – the "Frenchies" are highly respected in the business of structured finance – Fabrice Tourre. The banker of 31 years, citing the SEC's complaint, went on the benches of Henri IV and Louis-le-Grand, has joined Goldman Sachs after Stanford and Central Paris. It is he who makes and sells the Abacus series. On January 23, 2007, he sent an email to a friend: "more and more leverage in the system.Any building can fall at any moment now … only surviving potential, the fabulous Fab, standing amid all these complex transactions, (…), exotic we've created without necessarily understanding all the implications of these monstrosities. "

Fraud

The fund Paulson wants to "short" of CDOs, the most fragile, if possible. Goldman is going to create. According to the SEC investigation, the investment bank has simply made the model 2007-AC1 Series Abacus according to the wishes of his client. Paulson has directly participated in the selection of loans that this CDO would be representative. The bank was then entrenched behind an independent firm, ACA. This firm, which appear to have selected the credits of this CDO when it will be sold to investors.

Goldman said that "ACA has selected the benchmark portfolio, omitting any mention of the fact that Paulson, an actor whose interests were contrary to those of investors, had played a significant role," says the SEC to justify its accusation of fraud.

In fact, few investors have bought shares knowing that a heavyweight like Paulson urged to Paris on their fall! ACA would for his part acted in good faith.While representatives from attending meetings Paulson – "surreal" by Fabrice Tourre – with those of Goldman, but suggesting that hedge funds also invest in shares of CDOs.

Victims

SEC's complaint cites two main victims of the banks handling it denounces the German IKB, the subprime crisis has brought to its knees and the Dutch ABN Amro, fully nationalized today … The first would have lost 150 million, almost all of its investment. As for ACA, it is off … "Investors of Abacus 2007-AC1 lost more than one billion dollars. The opposing positions on CDS Paulson reported a profit of approximately one billion, "says the SEC.

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Vinci project would benefit the TGV Tours-Bordeaux

Tuesday, March 30th, 2010

This Tuesday morning that the candidate for the mega railway project LGV Sud Europe Atlantique (SEA) to over 7 billion euros should be announced by R?seau Ferr? de France. This route will connect Tours to Bordeaux on a journey of 300 km, involving the construction of 40 overpasses and 390 bridges. Companies Bouygues, Vinci and Eiffage are on deck for this contract to allow linking Paris to Bordeaux in two hours instead of three now.

The winner will design, financing, construction and maintenance for 50 years in this concession. In return, it will be paid by revenues paid by companies using the railway line.

Work could begin in mid-2011, year of recovery for a provision in 2016.

Vinci, the darling

Vinci is anticipated to win this huge contract.According Latribune.fr Monday evening Vinci would have won the tender.

For Natixis Securities analysts, the business model of manufacturer-dealer and know-how are relevant for this type of project cash advance payday loan. In addition, its financial situation is excellent.

"If the group Vinci was nominated for LGV SEA, the title should react positively. This contract represents nearly 30% of its backlog, "said the broker.

Such an announcement could also benefit other manufacturers, the market showing that these large projects as expected will actually materialize.In fact, keep in mind that the candidates approached other railway projects will be announced in the coming months, including LGV Bretagne (4 billion estimated), which will link to Paris in 1h30 Rennes and Brest in 3 hours and N?mes-Montpellier (1.2 billion).

According to Natixis, "it seems unlikely that a candidate wins more of these three railway projects.

Funding unpublished

In terms of funding, the project should receive the government guarantee and the savings of the CDC.

Swatch warns competitors

Saturday, March 13th, 2010

Swatch has saved the Swiss watch industry in the 1980s thanks to its cheaper models. DR

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The Cac 40 remains in the red

Tuesday, March 9th, 2010

The Paris Stock Exchange, plunged into the red. After starting the session hause of 0.10%, the CAC 40 continues into negative territory. Around 10:50, the flagship index Parisian loose 0.42% to 3887.16 points. The threshold of 3900 points, is not maintained. The London Stock Exchange is in the same atmosphere: the Footsie lost 0.41% to 5583.56 points while the Dax in Frankfurt Stock Exchange fell by 0.36% to 5854.58 points.

Yesterday, the Paris markets have ended on a slight decline of 0.18% despite opening in the green (0.35%). In Asia, the situation calmed after the euphoria of Monday. The numbers of U.S. employment, less worse than expected, to cease their invigorating effect. Monday already, Wall Street closed haphazardly in a sitting motionless.

The wait dominates before the publication of figures and important clues on the weekend.French side, there will be foreign trade figures for January and industrial output (Wednesday), the French deficit figures, the trade balance and the number of weekly unemployment in the United States (Thursday), and finally, the much anticipated index of U.S. consumer confidence (Friday).

Meanwhile, the trade deficit narrowed in France in January to 3.681 billion euros against 4.155 billion in December 2009, thanks to increased exports of manufactured goods, the Customs said Tuesday. This figure confirms the resumption of trade, but this recovery is much slower than the drop caused by the crisis, observers said.

EADS in the collimator

EADS announced on Tuesday a loss in 2009 of 763 million euros against a profit last year of 1.5 billion.The group expects a 2010 EBIT of $ 1 billion against 2.2 billion (before provisions) last year, and a stabilization of sales to 42.8 billion euros. Furthermore, EADS and its U.S. ally Northrop Grumman said the night they did not submit a bid for the tanker contract from the U.S. Air Force, saying it benefits their competitor Boeing fast cash without a hassle . The title is heavily penalized Exchange: -5,5,23% to 15.05 euros.

The bank also abused: Credit Agricole (-0.98%), Societe Generale (-0.63%) and BNP Paribas (-0.47%) retreated.

April (2.58% to 23.09 euros) on Monday announced an increase of 20% of its net 2009 profit 72.7 million euros. Financial products have more than doubled to 18.6 million.The insurer expects for 2010 a double-digit growth in its gross margin, with a positive impact on its operating margin (13% in 2009).

Total (0.44% to 42.44 euros) yesterday confirmed the closure of the refinery at Dunkirk and the fulfillment of its participation in the construction of an LNG terminal with EDF (+0.63% at 38 15 euros).

In addition, the electrician announced a collaboration with Rosatom, the Russian nuclear energy giant, in the development of reactors for third countries.Other partnerships are being negotiated with Russia in the field of electricity and fuel.

In the process, GDF Suez is in great shape (+1.18% at 27.80 euros) and achieves the best performance of ACC.

Sanofi Aventis (0.84% to 56.22 euros) and Merck announced Tuesday the creation of a joint venture equally owned in the area of animal health together their subsidiaries Merial and Intervet / Schering-Plow. The agreement created should be finalized within the next twelve months.

Eurotunnel (0.61% to 7.75 euro) remained in the black in 2009, with net income of 1.4 million euros but a turnover of 571 million euros, down 16 %. Jacques Gounon, Eurotunnel's CEO, recalls in an interview with Le Figaro, his intention to "market share" in the future. The group will pay the same dividend as last year, ie 4 cents per share."The payment of a dividend reflects our confidence and determination in 2010," commented Jacques Gounon.

Vicat (-0.07 ? at 56.76 euros) will release after the market closes.

"INTERVIEW – J. Gounon, Eurotunnel's CEO comments on 2009 results

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BHP agrees on a price with steelmakers

Monday, March 8th, 2010

Mining giant BHP Billiton ADR agreed with its main customers in Europe, China, India and Japan on short-term sales of coking coal. This agreement puts an end to traditional trading system prices this year among major mining companies and steelmakers.

BHP proposes three options to its customers for contracts on coking coal: an annual listing and every two months for half of the offers, the possibility of reducing tender contracts between quarterly and half, and finally, publication of prices every three months.

According to Macquarie Group, is the first time an agreement on a three-month contract is signed in the steel sector.

Without any contact number, the group said it sold a "significant portion of its volume of coking coal for 2010.JFE Holdings, the second largest Japanese steelmaker, had said last Friday it had agreed to pay $ 200 per tonne over three months. For Jim Lennon, analyst at Macquarie, specialist materials, "the Japanese will prove more flexible on prices." Flexibility which could benefit BHP, Teck Resources, Xstrata, Mechel OAO, Rio Tinto Group, Alpha Natural Resources and Massey Energy.

The new contract for three months, for which Morgan Stanley anticipates a course at $ 222 per ton, beginning 1 April next year, according JFE. One that expires next March 31, is listed at $ 129 per tonne.

On February 26, Energy Publishing, which reports the data supply and demand in the major coal producing countries, has published three price indexes for coking coal."The pricing in the short term will be difficult to manage without a reliable index of the prices of coking coal, which is why the publication of these indexes comes at the right time for the coal markets," said Forrest Hill, President Energy Publishing.

Occupation: No recovery until 2011

Friday, December 25th, 2009

The stabilization of the unemployment rate to 9.1% of the workforce, the French plunges further into the past: in early 2006, when the indicator peaked at a similar figure, before falling to unprecedented s 'is followed. In total, during the year 2009, the weak economy has had reason to 373,000 jobs, an increase in the number of job seekers by 20.3%. A particularly tough fall for the industry, which has accumulated during that dark year structural and cyclical crises, destroying nearly 100,000 jobs for the first half of 2009 alone.

Measures directly aimed at boosting the labor market, set up under the stimulus plan, however, seem to have limited the damage. "Put in connection with money taken by other countries, the stimulus is small.But the measures for use therein have been good "said Eric Heyer, Deputy Director at OFCE.

Offset

In total, the government estimates at 400,000 the number of jobs created or preserved by all actions taken under the recovery plan partial unemployment, subsidized contracts, extending device reclassification professional device "zero charge" for the 'hiring of an employee by TPE … -. If this figure is currently not verifiable, stabilizing unemployment announced by INSEE in the third quarter of 2009, and out of recession that began in the second, appear reassuring signals. … While analysts agree today to find that the adjustment of the labor market is still far from complete.

When is therefore a market recovery in employment and lower unemployment? Not before 2011, say the economists."Growth of 1.3% proposed by employment center for 2010 will not be sufficient to generate net new jobs," said Ernst and Bernard, director of statistics, surveys and forecasts for employment center. "Given the French productivity, only a growth above 2.5% would generate" confirms Eric Heyer, highlighting the gap of three quarters generally observed between resumed growth and lower unemployment rates. Same story with Nicolas Bouzou, economist at Altars, which estimates that unemployment will stabilize at best in 2010. "The problem is that this stabilization occurs at a high level," says he.

Brakes

Various factors should indeed help to limit the decline in unemployment in the months ahead.First, partial unemployment: as he has played a buffer role on the labor market by reducing redundancies, it should eventually stop the resumption of hiring. The 143,000 employees have benefited from the device indeed logically gather their full-time position, in priority to any additional recruitment. Second brake that is particularly Eric Heyer: the reinstatement of unemployment discouraged job seekers. "The stabilization of unemployment in the third quarter was partly due to traditional discouraged jobseekers less well positioned on the labor market.When the activity will leave, they re-subscribe, mechanically limiting the decline in unemployment. "An argument that employment center does not yet resumed its consideration.

If the unemployment rate should best pursue its stabilization in 2010, an additional shadow is looming: While the acceleration slows overall unemployment in recent months, the increase in long-term unemployed, who thus lose some little employability, increasing gradually. "The first people to find work are generally those who have been unemployed for some time. The number of long-term increases so mechanically, and should in this case continue to grow in first quarter 2010.

Trustees: associations challenging the Government

Thursday, December 17th, 2009

Consumer associations and owners want to end abusive billing trustees. Six of them (the Association of responsible ownership (Arc), the General Confederation of Housing (LMA), rural families, CNAFC consumers, UFC-Que Choisir and Union of Women civic and social) challenge the government on Thursday and request the publication of an order prohibiting certain pricing practices clearly. Objective: To achieve greater transparency in contracts of trustees and limit the share of additional fees.

In late October, the Secretary of State for Consumer Affairs, Herve Novelli, has announced that the list of benefits included in the package paid by the owners would be fixed by decree.If they welcome the decision they demanded two years, associations have expressed concern that the Government merely the final text was minima, taking the advice of the National Consumer Affairs September 27, 2007. Notice that as they raise problems of interpretation. They denounce such abuse by the multiplication of the trustees pay benefits when these services should be integrated into the annual management plan.

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