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The Fed is embarking on a "Twist"

Friday, September 23rd, 2011

The Fed has launched "Operation Twist" on Wednesday. Following a two-day extraordinary meeting of its Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC), the U.S. central bank announced its intention to sell by the end of June 2012 for $ 400 billion of treasury bills maturity of three years or less, to buy an equivalent amount of maturity from six to 30 years.

This mechanism, which takes its name from the famous dance that was all the rage in the 1960s, had just been used for the last time in 1961. Its objective is to reduce interest rates in the long run to give a boost to business investment and the demand for housing loans, which use these rates as reference.

The Fed, however, chose not to touch interest rates that determine the short-term rates. They remain between 0% and 0.25%.And they will remain at historically low levels until mid-2013, said a statement.

Market disappointment

In addition to this twist, and in order to support the mortgage market, the Fed will also buy real estate securities without increasing the size of its portfolio. For this, it will continue to reinvest the securities-backed real estate it owns as they fall due. But the FOMC said, instead of buying Treasury bonds as it did previously, she will buy securities backed by mortgage-agency mortgage refinancing para as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

This double operation shows that the Federal Reserve, the economy remains very depressed."The latest economic indicators suggest a continued weak conditions in the labor market and unemployment remains high, the Fed said. There are significant downside risks weighing on economic prospects, including strains in global financial markets. " These findings are similar to those of the IMF, which announced Tuesday it had seen very sharp fall in its growth forecast for the U.S., in theory at a level insufficient to expect a decline in the unemployment rate, which remains very high, to 9.1%.

On Wall Street, where the launch of Operation Twist was widely anticipated, the operators retain the discretion not optimistic the U.S. economy. Shortly after the news release of the Fed, the Dow Jones, which evolved in equilibrium has shifted into the red.It closed down sharply from 2.49% to 11,124.84 points.

The Paris Bourse becomes nervous

Friday, September 16th, 2011

After a third round of chained up on Thursday, the CAC 40 is hesitant. In this Friday called "the four witches' mature futures in the U.S., which always increases volatility.

After opening up 1.21%, the benchmark index of the Paris Bourse is pressed into the red in the morning before showing a slight increase of 0.54% to 3062.14 points. Sign that markets are not completely reassured by the decision of the central bankers of the richest countries to mobilize to prevent the drying up of banks' liquidity in dollars. "There is no particular news. The market is perhaps a little profit after rising in recent days, "says Dov Adjedj, vendor shares at Aurel BGC.

In turn, other European financial centers are currently in the green: the Footsie-100 from the London Stock Exchange rose 0.84% to 5382.27 points, the Dax in Frankfurt in 5570 to 1.14% , 82 points, but the Madrid Ibex-35 yields 0.17% at 8323.7 points while the FTSE Milan Mib rose 0.82% to 14,763.22 points.

Thursday night, the European Central Bank (ECB), the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, Swiss National Bank and the Bank of Japan reopened their facilities dollar loans to European institutions to three months, at their request . The decision was hailed by leading international institutions including the IMF, through its President Christine Lagarde: "This is a clear indication from the two largest euro area members of a economic point of view that Future of Greece is truly in the euro area.This appears to be strongly rooted in them both, "she said Thursday, referring to the Franco-German tandem. The same applies to the ECB: "We're all very closely 'united in one purpose'," said Thursday Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the ECB.

A meeting of finance ministers in Poland

Still, brokers are concerned that this improvement was not part of the time. "The coordinated central bank takes the market on Friday," noted Toshiyuki Kanayama, broker at Monex, quoted by Dow Jones Newswires. But this does not solve the problem of the euro area should have a temporary effect. "And for him to echo, the Austrian Minister of Finance, Maria Fekter, has not ruled on Friday that a failure of Greece is a better alternative to a bailout too expensive."We should consider this alternative," she started.

Suddenly, all eyes have turned to Wroclaw in Poland, where there is a meeting of EU finance ministers on Greece. It should last two days and overcome the remaining obstacles to the implementation of the second aid plan in Athens decided July 21 to avoid a bankruptcy of the country. Note that Timothy Geithneir, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, will attend the round table. Two press conferences are scheduled this Friday at 24:00 and 17:30.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro bought 1.3798 dollars, down 0.61%. Similarly, oil prices down slightly popped, a barrel of "light sweet crude" earned 5 cents to 89.33 dollars."This liquidity will likely prevent the recession to hit the euro area, supporting crude oil prices," said Victoire Shum, an analyst at Purvin and Gertz in Singapore.

On the macroeconomic front, the euro area recorded an external trade surplus 4.3 billion euros in July against 4.7 billion a year earlier, according to first estimates released Friday by the EU statistics office Eurostat .

In France, business start-ups in France rebounded in August after two months of decline. A total of 41,697 companies were created last month, according to Insee, a figure up 7.5% from July, which was the worst month for a year and a half.

In Germany, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said today that German GDP growth would be "closer to 3% than 2.5%" this year.This statement comes as concerns about the impact of cooling of the global economy on the German economy, heavily dependent on exports, are more vivid.

United States, the net capital flows and the index of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan will be published early in the afternoon.

Values to follow

Banking

After the decision by central banks to help European banks, the banks were moving in a disorganized mid-session: Societe Generale (2.40% to 18.77 euros), Credit Agricole (-0.05% to 5 , 52 euros) and BNP Paribas (-1.61% to 30.01 euros)

Air France-KLM (1.39% to 6.14 euros) and EADS (-0.88 to 22.06 euros)

The manufacturer will control 50 devices equally between European manufacturers Airbus and Boeing, for a total of $ 11.3 billion (8.1 billion euros) to ensure the renewal of its fleet, say Les Echos to be published Friday.

Hermes (-7.10% to 249.25 euros)

Resumption of trading on Friday for the title of the luxury group, which was suspended the day pending the decision of the Court of Appeal in Paris on speculation about the fate of its capital due to a possible takeover bid by LVMH.

Areva (-1.62% to 20.66 euros)

The group has suspended two months for the production of two French factories processing of uranium due to the decline in demand for nuclear power plants in Japan after the disaster in Fukushima, officials said Thursday from the French nuclear group.

EDF (3.34% to 21.33 euros)

Group and Electrical Delmi A2A and its majority shareholder, who jointly control Edison, announced the extension of their shareholder agreement until October 31 at number two in the Italian electricity.

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Accommodation: aid refocused

Wednesday, September 14th, 2011

In full preparation of the Finance Act 2012, the government wants to reform the system help to improve the energy quality of housing. The daily Les Echos, the measures will be refocused to encourage the most effective work.

The reform provides for the extension of the tax credit for sustainable development – given to households who install a heat pump or insulate their roof … – Until 31 December 2015. The credit will be enhanced even when the fireplace combine the installation of multiple devices. The Department of Ecology has also provided several scenarios in which the tax benefit may be increased to 50% instead of 13% to 45% today awarded based on the equipment installed.For roof insulation, for example, the owner will add those walls and piping fast cash advance loan.

The return of accumulated tax credit – eco-PTZ

Canceled earlier this year, the cumulative tax credit and an eco-interest loan will become possible, under certain conditions. The government plans an income ceiling set at 30,000 euros annually. In addition, households will still opt for the tax credit or the interest-free loan. The repayment period of the latter will also be extended to 15 years instead of 10 now.

In against part of the aid extended, the government will however reduce the benefits to other work. The list of eligible acts will be tightened, and a movement of the plane of 10% will be applied to the current subsidy rate.

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Savers: Do not panic, but concern about the risks

Tuesday, September 13th, 2011

"Customers are asking us if they have to worry about. To reassure them, we remind the facts, we communicate on our exposure to Greece … our profitability, "said Jean-François Sammarcelli, Network Manager of Societe Generale France. He said the withdrawals are not more important than usual, as the bank continues to attract savings … but the wealthiest clients shall, as a precaution, to spread their cash across multiple institutions. "Those other banks have the same reaction. We therefore also take this opportunity, "he adds. This is a situation that the banks had already known in 2008.

In every European bank, customers benefit because in case of bankruptcy of a guarantee on their deposits: checking account, savings plans, deposit accounts, or bank books (excluding Livret A, guaranteed by the state).But it is capped at 100,000 euros per person.

In France, it is provided by the Guarantee Fund deposits, which now has … two billion euros. Obviously too small a sum to compensate customers of a major bank. "The fund is one of the best capitalized in Europe. And he may at any time raise additional capital or borrow from banks, "says Thierry Dissaux, CEO of the Guarantee Fund deposits. In practice, its mission is primarily to avoid the worst, by participating in the rescue of troubled institutions before it is too late.

Life insurance affected?

And it is ultimately the more reassuring for the French: none imagine that the state gives up a large bank low fee payday advance. The debate, which opened this weekend on the assumption of a partial nationalization in point.Some investors wonder, them, especially the fate of their contract of life insurance. Although insurers claim to have little Greek bonds, a default of Athens served diminish returns to investors. Yields as affected by the collapse of the Exchange.

Insurers also hold, in proportions much larger government borrowing Italian or Spanish. If concerned about this exposure to sovereign debt, and disappointed by the declining returns of their investment favorite, the French withdrew their money en masse, insurers could be forced to sell their assets at the worst time. "We're not there. Withdrawals from the contracts increases for two years, partly because the holders of life insurance age and draw on their savings to finance their retirement, "said Chistophe Eberle, President Optimind, actuarial consulting firm.But insurers still manage the risk. "In 2008, the drying up of liquidity in the markets had led to withdrawals from the contracts. In our funds in euros, so we decided to keep cash in the interests served by our bond portfolios, to be ready to face any withdrawals, "says Sonia Fendler, General Heritage.

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Gucci ready to accelerate its expansion in China

Sunday, September 11th, 2011

Nanning, capital of the Guangxi region on the border of Vietnam, is the thirty-second Chinese city in which Gucci is settled in a few weeks. After opening nine stores in mainland China last year, and as much this year, including Gucci has 48 stores in late December, seven times more than in 2005.

At the time, François-Henri Pinault, PPR's CEO, decided to focus on China so that Gucci will catch up with Vuitton. "We still have room for significant expansion for store openings, says François-Henri Pinault. And to establish ourselves in cities where we are still not present. "If Beijing and Shanghai seem saturated with luxury boutiques, the potential is huge elsewhere in China.

News consumption

According to McKinsey, the growth of the Chinese luxury market, which will reach 19.5 billion euros in 2015 (against 7.4 billion in 2008), comes to nearly 80% of new consumers of luxury goods. And three-quarters of the 2.8 million new wealthy families (annual disposable income above 25 000 euros) will be living outside China's major cities. Gucci could increase the number of openings next year, and opened more than ten stores, including several in new cities. A figure that PPR declined to comment, but said a plan to finish Hothot (Inner Mongolia) in 2013.

"In some mining towns, just 2,000 wealthy individuals to establish a customer, provides Mimi Chang, the owner of the luxury division for Asia.We offer a VIP service to everyone. "

Gucci is present in cities (Chongqing, Guiyang, Hefei, Changzhou, Jinan, Shijiazhuang), where Louis Vuitton, the world's leading brand of luxury, has not printed the monogram direct payday lenders. The subsidiary of LVMH has instead decided to take a break from the pace of openings in China, preferring to expand some existing shops (38 in 28 cities in mainland China), to present all its collections, with, Also bags and luggage, ready-to-wear, shoes and watches, sometimes more than 1000 square meters. One way to avoid repeating the mistake made by some brands in the 1990s in Japan. "Gucci has not enough history to be strong in all categories of products and open many flagships, says François-Henri Pinault.But perhaps we will open in the future. "Gucci prefer open shops only 400 square meters, with only the supply of leather goods, as well as outlets that are only offering men and children. "We prefer the shops not very large and welcoming with huge stores and cold," said François-Henri Pinault.

The strategy is complicated to implement. Not only because it is difficult to find sites for boutiques in secondary cities. But also because consumer habits are different.If the Chinese fans prefer the luxury of more and more high-end pieces, leather and discreet, the new rich want to see success with products at affordable prices in fabric and adorned with logos.

Purchasers of Gucci China, who go five times a year in Florence, the birthplace of the brand, to make their selection, must make the splits. The range varies from store to store. Gucci watch to keep a wide range to suit all tastes of luxury, design special pieces for the Chinese market and seasonal products. Objective: To deter the Chinese to defer their purchases while traveling in Europe, where prices are 15-20% lower due to the lack of import tax.

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The real estate capital gains taxed more in February

Thursday, September 8th, 2011

Owners of second homes and those with a property other than their primary residence could be based, in recent years, on stable tax rules. To calculate the tax payable on resale of the property, the gain was reduced by 10% per year after five years in prison. This led to a full exemption after two years. In times of scarcity of public finances, this plan was considered too generous.

After many negotiations, members of the majority and the government managed to agree on a new system. Unless new amendment to the Senate, these reductions always will engage after five years in prison. But instead of 10% a year, they amount to 2% between the sixth and sixteenth years of detention, 4% between the seventeenth and twenty-fourth year and 8% thereafter.It was not until thirty years (instead of fifteen) to see its added value exempt. This regime will apply to final bills of sale signed on 1 February 2012. Given the usual delays, it will be necessary to sign the trade deadline in November. When the tax applies, the rate is 32.5%.

Increase in new sales

As a result, professionals expect an increase in offered for sale by then. "Owners who hold their property for at least fifteen years will want to take advantage of the current exemption of capital gains," said Jean-François Humbert, notary in Paris. Not sure, however, that buyers are at the rendezvous no teletrack payday loan. "Individuals who do like to let investment buy empty flats, said Laurent Vimont, president of Century 21.Or those who put their property to sell in a hurry are likely to already have a tenant. "

Sales of second homes, they weigh only 7% of the market (56,000 sales per year). And the fall is not a favorable period for transactions involving such property. But if the sale is finally concluded, it will probably be with lower prices. "Owners can grant rebates 5 to 10% up to sell quickly," said Jean-François Buet. As of February 1, however, the market is likely to seize up. "With the entry into force of this device and the negative pre-election period conducive to procrastination, the owners will be tempted to keep their property, advance Mael Bernier, spokesman for the loan broker Loans. The number of sales expected to decline. "

Is that the market is very sensitive to shifts in tax.Before the deputies did retouch the future scheme, the government announced on August 24 suppression of hard-reliefs and exemptions on real estate gains. The reaction was immediate. Within the network of estate agents Century 21, 500 sales agreement and terms of sale 1500 were canceled over the last two weeks. "In our 75 000 mandates, 5% were removed," adds Bernard Cadeau, president of the Orpi teaches.

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Italy strike against the backdrop of austerity

Wednesday, September 7th, 2011

General strike, plunging polls and growing skepticism of the markets. It is in this context that the Italian Senate Tuesday began a crucial discussion on the budget bill.

Silvio Berlusconi wants the recovery plan accounts, announced on August 12 but already relaxed, be adopted urgently by senators to advance to the European Central Bank (ECB), which meets on Thursday that the commitments requested by the 'Europe "were held." But the only way to meet this deadline is likely to engage the confidence of his government, he has not yet decided to do. Some in his party, invite him to seek dialogue with the opposition.

ECB and Bank of Italy, however, urged governments to take responsibility for reducing the public debt.Saturday, Cernobbio (northern Italy), Jean-Claude Trichet has urged Italy not to "waste time" to adopt structural reforms "strong and decisive." Monday, his designated successor, the head of the Bank of Italy Mario Draghi, has called on Europeans to "not assume" that the ECB will continue to buy "temporary" sovereign debt. Hans-Werner Sinn, president of the German Institute for Economic Research (IFO), the ECB made a mistake by buying Treasury bills Italian: "Only she started doing that the government of this country backtracked on its policy rigorously, "he lamented in the daily La Stampa.

The assumption that the ECB will reduce or cease its purchases of government securities alarm the Italian political and economic circles of the peninsula. On Monday, the short rate differential between Italy and Germany has set a new record to 327 basis points (3.27%).It was 160 basis points in late May. This means that investors demand a risk premium higher and higher to accept to lend to Italy.

This first day of examination of the text will be marked by a general strike launched by the CGIL. The main union in the country – 5.8 million members – calls for a tax on wealth which the government objected. He denounces a rigor that the popular classes are the costs, while the highest incomes are relatively spared. The abandonment of a levy "solidarity" of 5% on incomes over 90,000 euros and 10% in excess of 150,000 euros adds water to his mill.

Possibility of waiving the rules for dismissal

But most importantly, credible reforms, the government promised to amend the Labour Code a very rigid dating from 1970.Sunday, the Senate Budget Committee gave substance to this commitment by adopting an amendment that relaxes the conditions for termination. If he were finally voted, it would be possible to derogate from labor law, by agreement or even industry company, signed with the unions. Welcomes the employers, but for the CGIL, it is a "diktat intolerable." Other confederations welcome the amendment with more philosophy. For the ICFTU, Catholic, the measure is "inappropriate", but should not overly concerned, "What the union allow a dismissal?" Asks she.

Nicolas Sarkozy praised his "toughness" against unemployment

Sunday, September 4th, 2011

It is in a climate much different than at the conference in support of Libya, the day that Nicolas Sarkozy was on Friday, his first visit in the province since September. He chose to address the issue of rising unemployment in the Vosges, where he is three points above the national average (9.1%), visiting the company KDGFrance specializing in the manufacture of DVD .

One way to illustrate the policy to support training through professional transition contracts. But the Elysée had also clearing the way for some 60 miles away, sending his agriculture adviser, Daniel Perrin, to listen to the grievances of the employees laid off soon a group Lactalis Cheese Company, which manufactures including cheese … President .While polls show an improvement, but in the context of attacks on returning the case Bettencourt, Nicolas Sarkozy wanted to place his action under the sign of toughness. "The important thing is persistence. It is a keyword. (…) We are not in Libya would not have happened without toughness … the same tenacity will be put on employment, competitiveness of France. You have to fight inch by inch and finally get results, "he said.

By repeating the word seven times, Nicolas Sarkozy coined the slogan of the day.He also managed to draw a parallel between the end of the Gaddafi regime, which fell when everyone was betting on the stalemate, and the "titanic battle for France again become a place of production."

Sarkozy has nevertheless recognized that unemployment figures for the last three months were "clearly not good, but how could they be in the context of global economic and financial crisis?". He preferred to put forward some encouraging statistics, such as increasing the number of jobs created (120,000 in the first six months of 2011) quick cash. As his Secretary of State for Tourism Frédéric Lefebvre, he also established a link between unemployment and the demographic vitality of the country."A workforce that is increasing every year 150,000 people (…) is good news because in thirty years, France will be larger than Germany (and) it's good for the financing of our system of retirement, "he was glad. But "before reducing to one the number of unemployed is to find 150,000 jobs for 150,000 new" entering the labor market, he said.

On the concrete cures, Nicolas Sarkozy has remained modest. He announced a boost of 20,000 additional assisted contracts for young people and more than 50 years. But in a crisis of sovereign debt, no way to release the tightening imposed on the state budget. For the first time, the head of state has defended the new plan unveiled last week by Francois Fillon, who has to save one billion euros in 2011 and 11 billion in 2012.However, he vigorously defended the inclusion of the golden rule in the Constitution. "My God, but where's the catch? Are those temporarily in charge of the direction of France can not undertake that the annual budget goes toward equilibrium? ".

He cited the example of bipartisan agreement that has just spoken in Spain, "the Socialists and the Spanish right love their country more than their party, and I hope for France that politicians love their country more than their parties and their personal interests, "commented the head of state to the attention of the opposition.

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Expected to increase conservative Wall Street this afternoon

Wednesday, August 31st, 2011

Shortly before the opening of the New York Stock Exchange, the index futures Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100 advanced 0.91%, respectively, to 1215.80 points and 2246.25 points to 0.86%, leaving hope for a beginning of the session up. The Dow Jones was expected to share up 0.79% at 11,583 points.

U.S. investors, it seems, was reassured, once last night, by the tone of "minutes" of the last monetary policy committee of the Fed. This report has indeed confirmed that the U.S. central bank did not rule to use new tools of monetary easing to support growth ever more threatened. A perspective that also prompted the European markets to rebound on Wednesday morning, when he had closed the previous day on a mixed note.Also in the interests of peace, the United States, President Barack Obama said on Tuesday that the U.S. economy had a "heart attack" she was recovering at a slow pace as he prepares to unveil a new stimulus package.

Meanwhile, the volume still low despite the likely return of holidays for most investors, however, reflect a cautious market that continues. The current rebound, often excessive, thus remain fragile, the sudden relapse is, at every moment possible. And the meeting this Wednesday is evident, in this regard, not without risks.

The employment figures highly anticipated

Indeed, investors should react in particular the results of the ADP survey of employment in the private sector for the month of August, to be unveiled at 2:15 p.m. before, so the opening of Wall Street.The Chicago PMI index of industrial activity for the month of August, from 3:45 p.m., will also be closely monitored. Orders to industry for the month of July (1600) and the weekly oil inventories (16:30) conclude the list of publications of macroeconomic days.

On the corporate side, the American phone AT & T (1.23% on Tuesday in closing) pledged Wednesday to repatriate to the United States currently filled 5,000 jobs in its call centers overseas, where the green light to the acquisition challenged T-Mobile, the U.S. subsidiary of Deutsche Telekom.These employees will be "well paid", assured the group in a statement, recalling that he was the only major U.S. telecom operators to accept unions in its stores.

Bank of America (-3.21%) is preparing to further reduce its scope of activity in the mortgage, by stopping the sale of mortgage loans through independent agents, said Wednesday the Wall Street Journal, citing people close the file.

Hewlett-Packard (-0.26%) will temporarily restart production of its TouchPad Tablet, whose sales soared since the U.S. computer giant announced mid-August that he would cease to manufacture. HP announced on August 18 a sudden change in its strategy, through the cessation of production of its new tablet and its smartphones using the operating system of Palm webOS.HP also plans to separate its activities from production computers to refocus on software.

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Wauquiez will help students to stay

Wednesday, August 31st, 2011

Laurent Wauquiez said Tuesday the establishment of a guarantee fund to facilitate student housing. Goal? Avoid default and the requirement for students to produce a surety. The guarantee fund as surety in place of the new residence hall occupants.

Initiated by Valérie Pécresse, it has been refined over the summer by the services of Laurent Wauquiez. Main innovation: This fund was set up in collaboration with private banks to replace the young who can not provide security for accommodation in university residences. The project is also to extend this funding to candidates for private dwellings.

A quest that may turn the galley

The announcement comes just a few days or weeks of their return, many students are actively looking for a roof.To facilitate a search that may turn into a hassle, avoid pitfalls and surprises, the CNOUS (National Center for University and school), umbrella Crous, opens a portal to a comprehensive supply Housing in Ile-de-France. In this site are not only offers university residences, but also offers private landlords benefiting from new label CNOUS. For this new label, the organization set up with professionals and students, a questionnaire containing the prerequisites for inclusion in the list of homes approved by the regional Crous (heating, sanitary facilities or a network electrical standards …).The questionnaire four themes: the quality of housing, proximity to centers of education, respect of good practice in relations between the landlord and the tenant and the student price. Indeed, a report by the DGCCRF of August 2010 complained scams that students are the most frequent targets: unfair, inadequate housing, debit authorization of maintenance and repair of the deposit, ban to host friends …

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