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Shy up to Wall Street

Wednesday, May 11th, 2011

The U.S. stock market should open again close to equilibrium Tuesday. Futures on Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100 advance respectively from 0.02% to 1343 points and 0.04% at 2387.50 points. On Monday, Wall Street has ended in the green, encouraged by a slight rebound in oil prices and raw materials. The Dow Jones gained 0.36% to 12,684.68 points and the Nasdaq 0.55% to 2843.25 points. For its part, the broader index Standard & Poor's 500 advanced 0.45% to 1346.29 points.

But this morning, oil prices gave way to new ground. In New York, crude oil fell by 0.95% to 101.57 dollars a barrel in trading before the market opens.

Greece does not discuss additional assistance, sources said Tuesday Greek and European senior, denying a news report that suggested a new plan of 60 billion euros.This information has boosted European values ​​that are returned to the rise in the morning.

Caution should however remain appropriate. Investors will closely follow the issue in six months in Athens, amounting to 1.25 billion euros.

Market experts are also of IG also noted that the record number of Chinese exports in April could mean a new next monetary tightening by Beijing to prevent a runaway Chinese economy.

On the macroeconomic front, the U.S., investors will be watching in particular, import prices in April to be published shortly before the opening.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro was stable against the dollar on Tuesday.About 11:00 am in Paris, the euro was at 1.4365 dollars against 1.4358 late Monday.

The side of values

The mergers and acquisitions continue in the technology sector. Microsoft would be so close to a deal to buy the leading Internet telephony Skypepour $ 8.5 billion. That night, the Wall Street Journal said that Microsoft was willing to pay more than $ 7 billion. If the amount of over $ 7 billion were true, it would be one of the largest acquisitions in the history of Microsoft, the newspaper said.Nvidia announced the previous day, buying the company Icera, which makes chips for mobile phones and tablets for $ 367 million.

For its part, Google should launch a new online music service Tuesday, modeled on that of Amazon, reports the Wall Street Journal citing people familiar with the matter.

Still according to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. oil giant ExxonMobil is in talks with Indonesian PT Pertamina, which could buy him for $ 3.5 billion share of 25% in an exploration project in Angola.

For its part, the IT group Hewlett-Packard (HP) announced Monday after the close of Wall Street, a new architecture designed for networking and Internet requirements, impinging directly on Cisco products.

The website YouTube video-sharing became owner, with a catalog of 6.000 films that U.S. Internet users can look through flow generally from 2.99 to 3.99 dollars per film.

Also note Activision Blizzard has reported earnings per share in the first quarter of $ 0.13 against $ 0.08 and an expected turnover of 755 million dollars against 663 million expected. For the full year, the videogame company expects a turnover of 3.95 billion dollars against 3.9 billion previously.

Fluor Corp. has announced new contracts in the first quarter of 2011 amounting to $ 3 billion in Australia with BHP Billiton to develop the mine Jimblebar.

Also note, Freescale, a specialist in semiconductors, Motorola's split in 2004, provides for an IPO. The company would raise more than $ 1 billion.The company has retained an indicative price range of 22 to 24 dollars per share according to a document filed with the SEC. The funds raised will be used to repay debt. The day before, the Internet social network LinkedIn has published the documents for its IPO. The company wishes to issue 7.84 million shares at a price between 32 and 35 dollars. The total investment amount and between 250 and 274 million dollars, more than $ 175 million proposed earlier this year. The total value of the group is close to 3 billion.

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Greece Tripping the CAC 40

Monday, May 9th, 2011

The sessions will follow, but does not resemble the Paris Bourse. The CAC 40 is up in the red on Monday, after climbing from 1.33% Monday, following good U.S. job figures released Friday. The index in Paris dropped by 1.25% to end 4007.26 points at closing and narrowly saves the threshold of 4000 points which had been lost during the day.

The other European financial centers retreating in unison. The Dax in Frankfurt Stock Exchange lost 1.09% to 7410.52 points and the London FTSE loose 0.57% to 5942.69 points.

S & P demoralizes markets

Poor market sentiment was caused by the decision of the rating agency Standard & Poor's on Monday lowered by two notches the rating of Greece, due to the increased likelihood of debt restructuring .It also warned it could further lower.

The rating of the country's long term debt is reduced to "B" cons "BB-", which meant that Greece became deeply into the category of unreliable borrowers. His short-term debt is rated for its part "C" cons "B" before, according to a news agency. These ratings remain on negative watch, meaning that the agency could decide quickly lower them again. S & P said its decision on the fact that governments in the euro area, which have agreed to postpone the due date for repayment of their loans to Greece, could be tempted to demand a similar effort on the part of private creditors the country.

After this announcement, the euro goes off in decline against the dollar, trading at 1.4287 dollars at the close of European markets.

Investor sentiment decline

On the macroeconomic front, Bank of France (BoF) provides a first estimate of growth of 0.5% in the second quarter of this year. BdF anticipates a 0.7% gross domestic product for the first quarter.

The business survey from the Bank of France reported a moderate increase in activity in industry in April.The business climate indicator in industry decreased by three points to 107 while in services it has dropped one point to 102.

Investor sentiment in the euro zone fell again in May, with an index standing at 10.9 after 14.2 in April and 17.1 in March, the monthly survey showed Monday from research firm Sentix .

Financial stocks unscrew

Financial stocks post steepest declines in the CAC 40, while the financial situation of Greece worried, so much so that a new EU aid is getting ready by 2012. AXA (-3.52% to 14.65 euros) is an outlier of the index. It is followed by BNP Paribas (-2.74% to 52.94 euros), Societe Generale (-2.62% to 42.18 euros), Credit Agricole (-2.58% to 10.75 euros) and Natixis (-2.30% to 3.81 euros).

Rumors of transfer and acquisition for Lafarge at GDF Suez

CNP Assurances: -3.60% to 14.73 euros

CNP Assurances reported Monday a net profit in the first quarter down 3.6% to 270 million euros, affected by a strong contraction in sales (-14.1%).

Lafarge: -1.31% to 45.07 euros

Lafarge and Anglo American want to sell 600 million pounds (680 million euros) in assets to their new joint British company, whose creation was announced last February, the Financial Times.

GDF Suez: -2.32% to 26.09 euros

GDF Suez wants to establish a renewable energy division and will consolidate its ten subsidiaries producing green energy in France, according to Les Echos.Also according to the economic daily, the group would be interested in the Italian Sorgenia, 52% owned by the holding of the CIR De Benedetti family and 45% by the Austrian Verbund.

Euler Hermes: -7.67% to 66.13 euros

The credit insurance group Euler Hermes has done in the first quarter 2011 net income rose 58.2% to 75.3 million euros thanks to the continued recovery of the global economy observed in 2010. Turnover increased 7.6% to 544.1 million euros.

Iliad (Free): -0.31% to 87.55 euros

Numericable could announce the launch of a mobile telephone within 40 euro on Wednesday as well and hunt on the land of the Free (Iliad). The mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) that rents the network Bouygues Telecom is the origin of the site larevolutiondumobile.com.The group has denied wanting to launch an unlimited mobile plan.

On the podium of the largest increases Cac 40 include Alcatel Lucent (3.80% to 4.36 euros), STMicroelectronics (1.31% to 8.12 euros) and Accor (0.90 to 29% , 12 euros).

Vilmorin: + 1.40% to 86.95 euros

Vilmorin is up over 8% of its consolidated revenues for the year which ends in late June, when he was counting on this to 7%. The group also announced an operating margin target of 13% throughout the year, against 10.3% in 2009-2010.

Technip: 1.26% to 71.79 euros

Technip won a contract worth approximately EUR 55 million from Statoil for the development of the Vigdis field NE, located in the Norwegian Sea.The contract includes the supply of pipes to be installed by mid-2012 in water depths of 220 to 310 meters.

Air France-KLM: -1.91% to 12.04 euros

The passenger traffic of Air France-KLM jumped 23.1% in April, an increase that is "not significant" compared to April 2010 during which the European sky was blocked by the eruption of an Icelandic volcano, said Monday the airline group. In the past month, Air France-KLM carried 6.36 million passengers (+28%).

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Bin Laden, a fortune dedicated to terrorism

Monday, May 2nd, 2011

Difficult to assess the fortunes of Osama bin Laden, as the opacity of its funding sources has always prevailed. Before the attacks of September 11, 2001, the financial empire's founder and leader of al-Qaida announced until his death last night, was estimated between 30 and … $ 300 million. Only certainty, the first pillar of the wealth of terrorism based on the legacy of his father.

Mohammed bin Laden, Osama's father, made his fortune in construction and public works. At the latter's death in 1967, the leader of al-Qaeda share the inheritance with her 54 brothers and sisters. In all, Osama Bin Laden "received between 12 and 15 million dollars" between 1974 and 1994, according to Yeslam bin Laden, one of his half-brothers.

Present in 35 countries

Some of the funding received has been reinvested in other companies in Saudi Arabia or Sudan, thereby making a profit.Osama bin Laden had created a parent company, Wadi al Aqiz, head of a network of numerous legal societies and implanted in nearly thirty-five countries.

The Ladin International Company, an import and export, Taba Investment and Hijra Construction Company, specializing in construction are among the largest subsidiaries of the businessman terrorist. But these companies also served as cover for militants of al-Qaida. They fund training camps or buying weapons and receive "gifts" from Islamic banks branched through accounts and offshore tax havens.

From multinationals to SMEs

With the end of the first Gulf War in 1991, and the installation of U.S. bases on Saudi soil, Bin Laden decided to conduct a holy war against the United States. Replica of Washington and its alies: its funds are now tracked.Bin Laden fled to Sudan from 1994 to 1996. He bought land, invested in small business. Like the international financial network created in the 1980s, these companies often have two facets. Peanut farm houses a terrorist training site.

Managed well, business does not rotate at best. Bin Laden is forced to lower wages and to sell certain subsidiaries. No matter: "Terrorism is a low cost business," writes the Wall Street Journal in September 2001. If the September 11 attack has cost 400,000 to 500,000 dollars, the 1993 bombing against the World Trade Center would need $ 10,000.

Afghan exile

Expelled from Sudan in 1996 under pressure from the Americans, bin Laden returned to Afghanistan. The Sudanese government expropriated the terrorist during flight, according to the report of the American Committee of Inquiry on September 11.This second exile seems to coincide with increased financial difficulties on the ground. The branch of al-Qaida in London would have experienced problems paying their phone bills. For many decades, "Bin Laden has engaged in activities that eat money, but do not create," says the Saudi dissident Muhammad al-Massari, quoted by the Wall Street Journal.

Still, bin Laden also benefits from the charity to Muslims around the world, but that they know so far that their donations would be used to finance terrorism. According to a diplomatic report from 2009 revealed by Wikileaks, the Americans suspect of private foundations in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar to finance terrorism without limit. The villa in which Bin Laden has spent his last days, near Islamabad, is estimated at nearly one million dollars.

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Brazil Embraer sells 35 planes to China

Tuesday, April 12th, 2011

These are two engines of global growth are meeting this week in China. The president of Brazil Dilma Rousseff meeting today with his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao in Beijing.

Hours before the arrival of the Brazilian president, business partnerships already announced. Chinese airlines have ordered 35 aircraft and Embraer E190. This order is valued at 1.4 billion dollars, since each device costs $ 40 million at list prices. Of the total number of aircraft ordered, twenty are for China Southern Airlines and fifteen join Hebei, a small regional airline.

The contract was signed by Ministers of Industry of both countries during the visit of Dilma Rousseff. China has also expressed its intention to invest ten billion dollars in soybean production in Brazil.Beijing is the largest importer in the world.

Out a role of mere suppliers

In post for just over three months, Dilma Rousseff hopes to strengthen trade ties between the two emerging powers. Brazilia seeks out a relationship of mere supplier of raw materials for Beijing, while "Made in China" products flooding the Brazilian market.According to the China Business News, the Brazilian head of state has already expressed its intention to propel Brazil to the rank of major trading partner of China.

During his five-day visit, Dilma Rousseff must also attend a summit BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) to be held in the south on the island of Hainan.

Moreover, the "BRIC", the four large countries 'emerging' economic boom: Brazil, Russia, India and China are expected to occur this weekend, April 14, to développerleurs trade.

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Ferrari: "We did nothing to prohibit TF1

Monday, April 4th, 2011

A year before the presidential election, TF1 device adapts its campaign. The management of the private information of the channel will set up its schedule from May to make room in the extension of the newspaper 20 hours, a new monthly political appointments.

Presented by Laurence Ferrari and François Bachy, the Director of Policy, 8:20 p.m. to 8:40 p.m., the show policy fits into "break with the newspaper," says the presenter and editor of news at 20 hours, causing this new appointment. "I really wish the tone of the show is different from your" news "of the newspaper where we interviewed general policies on the news for 4 or 5 minutes with questions strained. Here, we are really in a format of 20 minutes we can go in both the program in pedagogy and in decoding.I think the French, even if they shun certain elections, want to understand. There will also sound elements that we will bounce back. On leaving the show, there will be a little better understanding of who is invited and especially what vision he has of France and of society, "says one who is also Deputy Catherine Nayl to management information TF1, the drafting of some 250 journalists.

A fairly compact format

From 2006 to 2008, the program "Sunday + on Canal +, Laurence Ferrari was noted for his pugnacity of political interviews. "This tone, I always kept. Those who watch the newspaper know that I have not changed much. But Francois Bachy, we wanted them to leave anything other than what they usually leave the uplands. That may be a bit ambitious but we hope to do, "she says."It was a long time there had been no political broadcast on TF1, said Laurence Ferrari. During the campaign, there may be an acceleration of the frequency of this issue and prime times. We had "I have a question for you" format "French Song" exists savings account payday advance. But we wanted to have a format to us, which we are already thinking. "

The political difficulty in viewership. What nourishes the goal of information management of TF1 by placing this new appointment just after the news, large vector hearing? "Around 7 million viewers, guess Laurence Ferrari. We make this policy issue that we believe when the hearing is the strongest of the day.But the poll published in The Pilgrim (March 29, Ed) comforts us in the fact that the French are attached to their JT, on a long term (at least 30 minutes), and only two-thirds of them JT is the only medium of information. "

Gill Birch, the new "wild card"

Asked about the potential evolution of JT, Laurence Ferrari said: "It is in any way out of the question shorter. However, we do not forbid to imagine a large slice of information overflow before or after the newspaper received a few more guests because we sometimes have a material so dense that we did 30 minutes not the time to bring. We do not forbid to TF1. However, these are just projects. The newspaper is solid and stable in its structure. JT is the most watched daily for all countries.We are leaders in France and Europe, and even JT Americans are not better ", says she.

Harry Roselmack, the "wildcard" Laurence Ferrari at the presentation of the news at 20 hours since 2006, announced in March his desire to quit his post after next summer to devote himself fully to the presentation of "Seven Eight "and the filming of the news magazine" Harry immersion. "He wanted to make the magazine, is irrepressible. I understand, although I regret it because we were a good pair. I welcome Gilles Birch (now Washington correspondent, Ed) with equal enthusiasm. He just writing and I love that look American, "says she.

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Deutsche Börse calls for merger with NYSE Euronext

Sunday, April 3rd, 2011

After the cons-offer Nasdaq OMX Group and IntercontinentalExchange (ICE), NYSE Euronext, Deutsche Boerse boss Reto Francioni, says its proposed merger in the columns of the Frankfurter Runschau. Deutsche Boerse and NYSE Euronext had announced their merger on Feb. 15 designed to give birth to the first exchange in the world, 60% owned by shareholders of the German group and 40% from those of the transatlantic operator. For the owner of the German operator, the project remains "the best combination" for shareholders of both groups.

He refused however to say whether he will increase his offer. Nasdaq OMX and ICE have made an offer Friday to $ 42.50 per share in cash and stock for the entire share capital of NYSE Euronext, the end, the proposed $ 11.3 billion. This is higher than 19% of Deutsche Börse, which is otherwise entirely denominated securities no faxing pay day loans.The offer from Deutsche Börse provides for the exchange of each action against a new set of common share and exchange each share of NYSE Euronext's equity share capital 0.47 cons of the new company.

Asked about the risk of a long legal battle to get the green light by competition authorities for its proposed merger, Reto Francioni said that it was for him not a "takeover" but rather a cooperation agreement between Deutsche Boerse and NYSE Euronext. "It's not for us to conquer or be conquered. For us it is an amalgamation of two partners are well positioned, "he said.

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"Japan is doomed to have slow growth"

Saturday, March 26th, 2011

Lefigaro.fr / jdf.com – The Japanese government assessed the damage of the earthquake and tsunami to 217 billion euros, or about four percentage points of gross domestic product of Japan. Is there a risk of recession for the country?

Arnaud Raymond – In the short term, yes. Taking the example of the earthquake that struck the city of Kobe in 1995, the impact of this new natural disaster should be strong in the first quarter, slightly weaker in the second. Expected contraction of GDP from 0.25% to 1% in the first quarter and from 0% to 0.25% in the second quarter. Sectors related to the automotive, electronics and to a lesser extent in refining will be affected. Just missing a technical component to the activity in these sectors is paralyzed.

What should we expect the second half?

By the third quarter, economic activity should pick up and longer term due to reconstruction efforts. Sectors such as public works or industrial equipment should enjoy. But they will not, however, significantly boost economic activity in Japan.

Why?

Because of its low birthrate, the country is doomed to have slow growth. However if we take into consideration the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, one realizes that he can grow between 1% and 2% per year, ie at levels similar to those of other developed countries. But this brake population necessarily implies a lack of dynamism in the domestic market.

So, salvation can only come from Japan and exports.Certainly, the country will benefit less because of the Asian economic downturn and especially China, but these markets still show strong growth, even decline (China expects 7% to 8% growth in 2011 against 10.3% in 2010, Ed).

For the first time since 2000, the G7 has intervened in concert to counter soaring yen. Is this a good measure?

This is an excellent measure and a strong signal to financial markets. It can not appeasing tensions that we observed on the yen, due to speculative excess in the massive repatriation of funds held abroad to finance compensation to victims of disaster.

The Japanese currency was overvalued. A weaker yen is necessarily beneficial to succeeding in the reconstruction after the earthquake and for Japanese exports.Financial markets have been pleasantly surprised by the fact that this intervention was concerted. No risk of inflation is to be feared such a measure, the country is in near-deflation and the Japanese asset prices are not ready to get excited.

The cost of construction is not likely he not impair the solvency of Japan?

The question of the solvency of Japan in fact arises. The cost of the natural disaster will be borne by insurers and by the country. Certainly, as I said earlier, this will generate additional growth, but this will further increase the debt of Japan, whose share in GDP is higher today than 200%.

Suddenly, there is a risk that the debt rating of Japan is still down.Now, unlike a country like Greece whose debt is held by more than 50% by foreign countries, Japan's is 98% owned by institutions or individuals in Japan. In other words, while individuals and other institutions have confidence in their country, Japan will not be in danger.

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Axel Springer may withdraw SeLoger.com Exchange

Wednesday, March 23rd, 2011

The German publisher Axel Springer has gained control over 95% of the company of small ads on the Internet Seloger.com from the extension of its tender offer (OPA) announced the Authority Financial Markets (AMF), confirming a report from Reuters. "It (score) Stalinist," said one of those people.

The success of this operation means that SeLoger.com may soon bid farewell to the Exchange. Indeed, the French stock exchange law authorizes the issuer of a tender offer to delist its target if he can control at least 95% of its capital at the end of its range. The results of the extension of the tender offer to 38.05 euros per share is expected to be formally announced Wednesday by the Financial Markets Authority (AMF).

A company owning more than 95% of another listed company for the possibility to via IPO Squeeze (OPRO), to redeem all shares on the market. Investors then have the obligation to tender their shares to the offer as opposed to a takeover bid. This procedure is also called "squeeze out". Specifically, the delisting occurs most often in the form of a Public Buyout Offer (OPR) followed by a takeover of Squeeze (OPRO, which will compensate the shareholders of the company fast payday loan no faxing.

The delisting is not excluded

Axel Springer has not formally ruled out making a "squeeze-out on SeLoger.com, but also said he has nothing against the act of keeping one of its acquisitions listed, as is still the case for Aufeminin, another French star net bought by the German publisher.Out a group of stock and raise its stake to 100% allows the shareholder to make a tax consolidation and reassembling easier dividends to the parent.

For its part, SeLoger.com announced Monday that he expected a double digit growth of its key financial indicators in 2011 thanks to record levels of hearing and that he intended to double its dividend . After a fierce battle market, Axel Springer was able to convince management and major shareholders of SeLoger.com. After his first offer, the publisher of the German tabloid Bild controlled nearly 75% stake in the company.

(With agencies)

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Monday, March 21st, 2011

The Paris Bourse was able to surpass the 3900 points. After laboriously saved the technical threshold of 3800 points last Friday, Cac 40 climbed 2.47% to 3904.45 points on Monday at the close, after increased its earnings at the opening sharply higher on Wall Street, and after a final peak in the final minutes. This morning, Asian markets also rebounded strongly, despite the closure of Tokyo because of a holiday, reassured by the stabilization of the nuclear crisis that has rocked the archipelago.

Elsewhere in Europe, the indexes are correctly oriented. In Frankfurt, the Dax gained 2.28% to 3816.12 points raised by Deutsche Telekom has sold its subsidiary T-Mobile U.S. giant AT & T.In London, the FTSE was 1.19% awarded to 5786.09 points.

In the absence of major indicators fell at the first weekly session, all eyes turned abroad. Optimists, operators retain Parisian improving the nuclear crisis in Japan. Moreover, the World Bank has estimated that the earthquake and tsunami of 11 March could cost the Japanese economy up to 235 billion (165 billion), up 4% of national production. The international agency notes, however, that reconstruction would quickly resume.

Libya, the center of attention

However, caution about the strength of this long-term uptrend, while investors should still be observed in the coming days, the situation in Libya.The strikes of the international coalition began this weekend and the Libyan air defenses had been severely damaged. In the viewfinder, on Monday: the supply lines of forces of the regime of Muammar Gaddafi.

This tension is already affected oil markets, fueling the rise in oil prices. In morning trading, a barrel of light sweet crude for April delivery was taking 2.31% to 103.76 dollars. That of Brent North Sea crude for May delivery gained 3.47% at 114.9 million. "Some oil facilities could be destroyed during strikes or when sabotage," said Victor Shum of Purvin and Gertz firm.

As for currencies, the euro stabilized in mid-day at 1.4169 dollar.As for the dollar, he continued his catch against the yen, a dollar worth approximately 81.20 yen after the G7's decision to intervene to counter the outbreak of the Japanese currency.

Side indicators, the news will be published with the U.S., 15 hours, sales of existing homes in February.

Values ​​to follow

EDF: + 5.17% to 28.87 euro

The Ambassador of France to Italy was summoned to the offices of Chairman Silvio Berlusconi on the Parmalat case and Edison.Nissan's partner Renault has also announced it would boost its production lines in Japan.

L'Oreal: + 2.51%, to 80.48 euros

Jean-Paul Agon, CEO of the group, also holds the post of president since Friday but will retain the same salary this year than in 2010.

Air France-KLM: + 1.72%, to 11.51 euros

The idea of ​​"bases Province" was overwhelmingly approved by referendum.The Cockpit living near the bases would not have to make stopovers, which should allow the company to save money.

Diageo: + 1.45%, to 13.32 euros, Pernod Ricard: + 2.39%, to 64.15 euros

The Sunday Times, the group plans to launch a bid of two billion dollars on the brand of tequila Jose Cuervo, the newspaper added that Pernod Ricard might also be interested.

Audika SeLoger.com and publish their annual results after market close.

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The development of nuclear industry outstanding in the world

Wednesday, March 16th, 2011

"I ask for patience until that we have sufficient information available to review the issues discovered in central Japan to draw lessons for the future role of nuclear energy." When a visit to Oslo on Tuesday, Nobuo Tanaka, the president of the International Energy Agency (IEA) has expressed its fears that events in Japan to delay the development of nuclear energy worldwide. At a time when all eyes are on the plant in Fukushima, damaged Friday by a powerful earthquake followed by tsunami, and been shaken by four explosions, several countries have decided to test security at nuclear power plants.

"If I understand the public reaction, I am concerned about the effect this might have on support for this technology given its important role in energy security and the advent of a low-carbon economy," said Nobuo Tanaka. According to the World Nuclear Association, world production of nuclear electricity has reached terrawattheures 2560 (TWh) in 2009, representing 14% of the total electricity production. There are currently 443 nuclear reactors operating worldwide.On the other hand, according to a report published by the IEA in 2010, the development of nuclear energy should account for 6% of the solution in efforts to halve CO2 emissions by 2050 to limit to 2 ° C global temperature increase.

"The accident at the plant in Fukushima probably begin the prospects of civil nuclear power, especially in countries more cautious vis-à-vis this energy," said Louis Boujard, an analyst at Aurel BGC. In Germany, where 80% of citizens fear the use of nuclear power and 63% want the quick abandonment of this energy, according to a poll released Wednesday by the magazine Stern, Angela Merkel has closed three months for the seven nuclear reactors older the country, the time for their security screened. Switzerland has announced that his side have suspended its plans to renew nuclear power stations.A reflection on a possible postponement of projects were also started in South Africa.

Likely increase maintenance expenditure

One issue that does not arise in France. Nicolas Sarkozy reaffirmed on Wednesday the "relevance" of the choice of nuclear energy, "essential element" of the country's energy independence. He stressed the "excellence" dudispositif safety of French nuclear facilities. The Hexagon has 58 reactors that provide about 76% of the electricity produced. "For France, it is rather whether maintenance expenditure will be needed to increase plant safety, as part of the audit initiated by the government," said Louis Boujard. In this context, Aurel BGC has degraded the EDF shares to "buy" to "sell" with a price target reduced from 40 to 25 euros.

In fact, the stock market, the values ​​of nuclear suffered in the wake of the disaster in Japan. Areva has unscrewed the title Tuesday of 8.56% in Paris, having already won from 9.61% Monday, while EDF has lost 1.38% after a fall of 5.28% yesterday. On Wednesday, the title Areva took over and gained 3.21% in mid-session. The loss of EDF was limited to 0.51%. Conversely, the values ​​related to renewable energy are acclaimed by investors earlier in the week.

In France, EDF Energies Nouvelles has closed up 4.40% Tuesday, after a gain of 5.09% yesterday. The producer of electricity from wind Theolia jumped 14.17%, 1.69% after having nibbled on Monday. The title of the giant Danish Vestas Wind rose by 1.13% Tuesday, after an increase of 9.59% on Monday. Finally, the equipment manufacturer solar Renewable Energy Corporation (CCC) gained 11.61% Monday, and 2% on Tuesday."The events in Japan could lead to increased investment in solar or wind projects of around 10% per year over the next two years," said Rupesh Madlani, renewable energy specialist at Barclays Capital in London.

"Effect opportunistic" for renewable energy

For Louis Boujard, however, "a radical change in global energy mix is ​​not feasible in the long term." The analyst believes that the renewable energy sector has a stock market "effect opportunistic," even if he could win points with the public and governments. "Trade-offs may indeed promote the sector and we can consider a larger than expected development of green alternatives." But in terms of current capabilities, analysts point out that renewable energy can not completely replace nuclear in the long term.

To Rupesh Madlani, the gas will certainly be the biggest beneficiary of a possible sudden brake on nuclear power, because its combustion releases twice less CO2 than coal. But to remain in compliance with scenarios fight against climate change, consumption of gas itself must decrease from 2020-2025, recalled the analyst from Barclays Capital. In fact, the debates initiated in several countries for their commitment to raise another nuclear complex equation. "For climate, this can not be good news," says Cedric Philibert, an expert on renewable energy to the IEA. "What we must avoid is that a slowdown in nuclear development will result in a return to the fossil," he warns.

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