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The Paris Bourse should pause

Thursday, June 10th, 2010

The CAC 40 was up Wednesday night supported the closure through the reassuring words of Ben Bernanke, the Fed chief, after three consecutive sessions of decline. Other major European markets have also hoisted the green flag. In Frankfurt, the Dax gained 1.98%. In London, the Footsie has won 1.15%.

Even mood on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones gained 1.16% and the Nasdaq 1.66% shortly after the close of European stock.

And Thursday morning, Asian stock markets confirms the renewed investor optimism. The indices are displayed in positive territory while a series of good gives figures balsam inside investors.

U.S. growth is reassuring, Ben Bernanke also

Published yesterday, the Fed's Beige Book confirmed an increase in economic activity in the United States without signs of inflation, reinforcing the idea that the Fed is in no hurry to raise interest rates.The Federal Reserve announced it was expecting a GDP of 3.5% for 2010 and "somewhat" more in 2011. In May, the Fed was between 3.4% and 4.5% for 2011.

Its chairman, Ben Bernanke, indqiué he remains attentive to the evolution "of the situation abroad. His comments are aimed at Europe in turmoil budget. He said however, "reassured by the answers of Europeans," holding that they have developed a "substantial program.

The economic indicators of importance

Industrial production in France in April will be known at 8:45. At the same time, figures on employment in the first quarter will be released by INSEE.

In Frankfurt, while it is held by the Governing Council, Jean-Claude Trichet, head of the European Central Bank, will deliver the Bank's decision on interest rates to 1% today.A status quo is preferred.

Like every Wednesday, the weekly unemployment benefit claims in the United States will be published at 14.30. The figures on foreign trade in April will be known at the same time.Then, 20 hours, investors will follow the budget execution figures for the month of May

Japan remains the second largest economy after the United States, while the revised official figures and show a growth of 5% in the first quarter of 2010.

France Telecom, one aggrégateurplus a producer

Value-laden France Telecom, which held its annual meeting Tuesday, it appeared necessary to adapt its strategy contained in the competitive environment and has therefore become more assertive as an aggregator and as a producer, said Wednesday Stéphane Richard, his manager General at the General Assembly no teletrack payday loan.

In addition, the telecom authority (Arcep) on Wednesday defended a regulatory context to counterbalance the dominance of France Telecom in the telephony market in France.

Air France-KLMSelon information Figaro, Ethiopian Airlines is preparing to sign an agreement with Star Alliance to join the alliance dominated by Lufthansa. Air France is being shaken to its network and the most profitable.

Total oil group participates in the construction of a solar concentrator 100 megawatts in Abu Dhabi, the largest in the world.

Renault head to change the financial department. Thierry Moulonguet will be replaced by the CEO of RCI Banque.

Imerys The Strategic Investment Fund (ISF) has announced Wednesday the fall departure of chief executive Gilles Michel, who will join the group of industrial minerals and construction materials, which is expected to become CEO in 2011, to succeed Gerard Buffière.

The Auchan retail group and its Taiwanese partner Ruentex preparing to list their Chinese activities on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong, according to Les Echos published Wednesday. A first for the family business.

French Members Banks, which begin Thursday in open discussion of the draft law regulating banking and finance, also want to discuss with the Government of the German measure to ban naked short selling.

EADS Eurofighter has launched negotiations with Germany, Spain, Britain and Italy to convince these countries to invest 10 billion euros in the next phase of production of its combat aircraft.

Moreover, during the Berlin Air Show, Louis Welsh, the executive chairman said he was "delighted if we could forge a partnership with Embraer, the Brazilian counterpart, said FinanzNachrichten.

The form that could take this partnership has not been specified. In the past, EADS has held a minority stake in Embraer, which he sold in 2007.

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Separated hotels, Accor Services is renamed Edenred

Tuesday, June 8th, 2010

Paradise red … Accor Services changes name and becomes Edenred in 40 countries where it operates, through its Ticket Restaurant and food stamps for the basics. This new identity is part of the demerger of the group Accor, which will be halved on July 2 with a side hotels (Accor) and other services (the new Edenred).

Each of these activities will be listed separately on the stock market. "We wanted a positive name that embodies our values, easy to pronounce and that can be incorporated into many languages, says the Figaro Jacques Stern, head of the service arm of Accor and a future issue of Edenred. We have reviewed hundreds. It was unanimous executive committee. "The firm specializes in creating names Kaos Consulting with teams internally, is behind the new name.

Eden means paradise in eight languages."In 95% of countries where we operate, people understand its meaning without translation," says Jacques Stern. Eden, in Edenred is, above all, "social ties, generosity, sharing. It is also the name of the company's project ("Undertake a different picture"). And the red ("red")? It is a direct reference to the logo that appears on most tickets for the company, a red ball. "In addition, red means network in Spanish, said Jacques Stern. Now our business is a business network, connectivity between businesses, employees and governments. "To have her new name, Edenred had to buy some domain names.To start, the company has installed 40 red balls huge cloth 5 to 7 meters in diameter in symbolic places: the role of Defence in France, in the middle of the Danube in Hungary … Edenred not intended to replace brand names themselves, there will be no major advertising campaign for the general public. "This is a company name. It is primarily for our 490,000 corporate clients, said Jacques Stern. Its launch is very economical, between 1 and 2 million euros. "

Brazil, the largest market

Already a world leader, Edenred intends to use its new autonomy – without Accor – to accelerate its development. It expects an annual growth in issuance volume between 6 and 14% for future years. Jacques Stern seeks settlements in 6-8 new countries by 2016 and it promises to innovate.In Brazil, the largest market Edenred (France is number three, behind Italy), a ticket culture will be launched in September. Dematerialization is a priority. To date, 70% of the offer is sold in paper form, with significant differences from one country to another: 80% in Brazil, but 15% in France. In 2016, the goal is to be 50/50. "At first, this represents an investment, but dematerializing our products, we enrich them," explains Jacques Stern. In Italy we have just launched a prepaid card, which incorporates advances for expenses for employees in addition to the Ticket Restaurant. "

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A French 31-year involvement in the case of Goldman Sachs

Saturday, April 17th, 2010

Goldman created a financial product

Since 2004, Wall Street has found a new Eldorado, CDOs (collateral debt obligation). These financial products assembled from scratch, called "synthetic" because they only reflect the value of other real assets, they, as loans granted to low-income households, the famous subprime. In 2007, Goldman Sachs creates such mass-produced and dubbed "Abacus".

The needs of a large customer

Paulson & Co is the time a small hedge fund. It will become one of the biggest thanks to its bet on the decline in U.S. housing. In the year 2007, his boss will cash alone a profit of some 3.7 billion dollars and will save 15 billion to its customers! The SEC in 2006, Paulson & Co has the right intuition that the subprime market is fragile. He put on his fall.Its Paris can take two forms: buy CDS (credit default swaps), the "insurance" against default that will naturally grow in value when the risk will increase, or "short" CDOs, that is ie sell futures without holding them.

A French in the loop

Paulson & Co. is not alone in feeling the wind change on CDOs. At Goldman, you think too. This is particularly the case of a young French – the "Frenchies" are highly respected in the business of structured finance – Fabrice Tourre. The banker of 31 years, citing the SEC's complaint, went on the benches of Henri IV and Louis-le-Grand, has joined Goldman Sachs after Stanford and Central Paris. It is he who makes and sells the Abacus series. On January 23, 2007, he sent an email to a friend: "more and more leverage in the system.Any building can fall at any moment now … only surviving potential, the fabulous Fab, standing amid all these complex transactions, (…), exotic we've created without necessarily understanding all the implications of these monstrosities No teletrack payday loans ".

Fraud

The fund Paulson wants to "short" of CDOs, the most fragile, if possible. Goldman is going to create. According to the SEC investigation, the investment bank has simply made the model 2007-AC1 Series Abacus according to the wishes of his client. Paulson has directly participated in the selection of loans that this CDO would be representative. The bank was then entrenched behind an independent firm, ACA. This firm, which appear to have selected the credits of this CDO when it will be sold to investors.

Goldman said that "ACA has selected the benchmark portfolio, omitting any mention of the fact that Paulson, an actor whose interests were contrary to those of investors, had played a significant role," says the SEC to justify its accusation of fraud.

In fact, few investors have bought shares knowing that a heavyweight like Paulson urged to Paris on their fall! ACA would for his part acted in good faith.While representatives from attending meetings Paulson – "surreal" by Fabrice Tourre – with those of Goldman, but suggesting that hedge funds also invest in shares of CDOs.

Victims

SEC's complaint cites two main victims of the banks handling it denounces the German IKB, the subprime crisis has brought to its knees and the Dutch ABN Amro, fully nationalized today … The first would have lost 150 million, almost all of its investment. As for ACA, it is off … "Investors of Abacus 2007-AC1 lost more than one billion dollars. The opposing positions on CDS Paulson reported a profit of approximately one billion, "says the SEC.

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The electricity tax will be reformed

Tuesday, April 13th, 2010

Taxes are so many in France that the French often pay taxes without realizing it. Who knows the local tax on electricity (TLE), which is yet on the electricity bill under the term "local taxes"? Levied by counties and municipalities, it is now optional. But most local officials do not hesitate to apply it, and very often at the maximum rate allowed, or 8% for municipalities and 4% for the departments. This tax applies to 80% of pre-tax amount of electricity bill. Clearly, if you pay 150 euros per year, excluding tax, subscription and consumption of electricity, the TLE can climb up to 14.40 euros. The total cost TLE still one billion per year to households. The note is for the companies is anywhere from 500 million (the largest consumers of electricity are exempt from TLE).

This system will certainly evolve in the coming months.Because France does not respect EU rules: since 1 January 2009, the FTA should become mandatory. The 2003 directive on the taxation of energy products and electricity provided that each State should, at that time, have a low tax (the minima are lower than current French) but paid for by all and based on the volumes consumed and not the amount of the invoice.

Losers in the rural

The European Commission said in Paris about the end of March, threatening to bring the case before the Court of Justice if the reform was not implemented within two months. For now, the government has not made a decision. But Bercy board on the subject. Indeed, a first draft was submitted to the consultation in late 2008 which set the fee to 8.50 euros per megawatt hour for households. A level calculated for the levy does not change.For Bercy is that the changeover from one system to another is painless for the French. But there will inevitably be losers: the inhabitants of the few municipalities, often rural, not applying EFT. Additional cost for a typical household of two children: about 25 euros per year. At a Senate hearing, Philippe Marini, the UMP rapporteur of the Budget, has proposed that, in this case, the application of the new tax should be spread over five years.

But there will also be winners, as second home owners, who will pay more than their consumption, whereas before the subscription was also submitted to the FTA and the Parisians, whose rate of TLE (13.2 %) was higher. Ultimately, all French people will be interested because the volumes consumed – using the new system – progress less rapidly than the bill that reflected higher prices. This does not relish the local politicians.Another uncertainty, Brussels does allow communities to adjust the tax? Apparently so. Finally, manufacturers will be exempt from TLE, themselves, pay the new tax. The final draft is not yet completed. And it is unlikely to be ready before the review in May and June, the bill on the organization of the electricity market. Especially if the government wants to resume consultations. The deadline is rather that the next draft budget law for 2011.

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Real estate: how to take advantage of bargains

Tuesday, April 6th, 2010

Realtors? A good indicator of the economy. Today, the stone as the economy heads out from the water, but both of them are not yet fully recovered and remain afloat in midstream. Tails, the good news, transactions leave. This year, Fnaim, the federation of estate agents, believes that the bar of 600 000 transactions could be completed. But the market remains mixed. The nine was widely supported by the success of Scellier law, which allows investors to benefit from a tax of 25% within an investment of EUR 300 000. The former, he, still suffers. Because the coin has two sides. Front side, the bad news, the former has not solved the fluidity necessary for proper functioning of the housing market.Those professionals call the secundo-time buyers, that is to say, households who sell a property to buy another, are still not massively back on the market. In many places and on many products, it is still often difficult to match the expectations of those sellers with buyers.

After a blip like this has crossed the housing market, have a good idea of the price of a property is difficult. All the buyers and sellers are determined based on their expectations about future price developments. Roughly speaking, professionals assume a status quo prices. The most optimistic evoke certain properties, the most sought increases in the order of a few percent. Others believe that the balance should tilt towards a price reduction. Mathilde Lemoine, director of economic studies of HSBC France, and expects a decline in prices of the old 4% this year.For its part, the Land Bank expects "a drop in prices of 3% in the former and stability in the new." And pout Mouillart Michel, Professor of Economics at Paris X-Nanterre, "there is no risk of sudden fall of the market.

Another less quantifiable changed with the crisis and must be taken into account. In real estate, as elsewhere, households are determined to buy at the right price, to be smart consumers and investors informed. The beating of the heart are more difficult. Today, we buy more with his head than his heart. The ball is still in the camp of buyers. They have attractive credit terms. It is indeed possible for those who have the best records, to find a fixed rate loan over fifteen years to 3.5%. It will be hard to beat. "Interest rates will necessarily undergo one or more increases in 2010," said the broker CAFP.In a market recovering, prices are difficult to read. We publish in this case the numbers of notaries, those of the Credit Foncier Fnaim and according to our tour of France prices in Ile-de-France and its regions. Searched information, necessary but not sufficient. For now, the price changes between a product with and without defects, good or bad situation, are becoming wider. To help you better understand these variations, we have pushed the investigation further. With concrete examples of prices that are resistant and those who decline (page 114) and a tour of France that you can buy if you're lucky enough to have a budget of EUR 500 000 (page 142). On most goods, prices have declined from their level two years ago. But they have not collapsed.In the Ile-de-France, for example, notaries emphasize that "the decline in prices recorded between autumn 2008 and summer 2009 was about 10%. But the downward trend in prices has "interrupted". "On an annual basis, the decline in prices between late 2008 and late 2009 is more than 5.6%," they add. This year they expect a stabilization of prices. And sounding the alarm. "The resumption of construction of new housing in the private sector is essential to stabilize the market. The shortage of quality housing appropriate to the needs of Parisians is short-term risk of a return of speculation.

The network Orpi evokes a "real recovery, but fragile." A word that recurs in several experts. Mathilde Lemoine and speaks of a "housing demand remains fragile because of imbalances persist. Yet the French like stone.After the fall of shares in 2008, the erosion rate of return on financial investments, many households have even rediscovered the charms of real estate, which enjoys a level of trust greater than financial markets. If market participants, professionals and individuals, are reasonable, it could therefore grown out of this crisis.

The purchasing power of households holding back price increases

In the nine programs are, at least for this year, many to sprout and marketing is well underway (see page 148), and some programs, proponents talk about buyers sleeping room not to miss the opening the sales office. Others talk of bidding on the price of land currently for sale. We find places for runaway phenomena. Sign of fine weather sets found for Real Estate? Nobody dares to translate it well.Because we have not yet met for the recovery that is taking shape into a market stabilized and restored. "A major risk of the recovery is that sellers reflect recovery by rising prices," says Orpi. For the market to find its stride, the sellers should stop dreaming about trees that rise to heaven, and that construction professionals are able to reflect the changing purchasing power of buyers in their projects. In a recent study based on the relationship between prices and incomes, Patrick Artus (Natixis) estimates that property prices are still too high (10 to 15% in France). Today, many proponents say, if prices rise too far, the application will not be there because the acquisition of a home no longer go into the budgets of many households. This constraint incomes and high unemployment limit the potential for price recovery.Managing the crisis will be difficult for the economy as a whole and real estate. This is the challenge of coming months to policies and professionals. For individuals who have the means to, global rates, market and taxation are conducive to a real estate purchase. If they have a project, they have a vested interest in the reality.

The Senate wants to limit the autoentrepreneuriat to 3 years

Wednesday, March 31st, 2010

A first scratch on the scheme which has boosted business creation in 2009? Following a round table organized in the Senate to take stock of the regime of self-contractor, several senators, including Jean Arthuis, chairman of the Finance Committee, proposed limiting the device over time. In practice, a self-contractor could not remain as three years. The purpose of this proposal, which should eventually be included as part of an amendment to a bill is twofold.

It aims mainly to prevent that, beyond the threshold turnover limit set by law, the self-declared cease contractors additional income rather than spending in the common law system. The measure aims both to limit the extent of undeclared work and to force these self-experienced entrepreneurs to move after three years to the classical scheme of the contractor.For companies under common law, and especially the artisans, complain of unfair competition that they oppose the self-entrepreneurs. According to INSEE statistics, one third of them practicing in effect as artisans, but does not pay the charges which have submitted their congeners.

"Either the regime is bad and should be abolished or he is good, and it must be sustainable"

The senators also want to impose an obligation to report sales, even if it is zero, see this as an opportunity "to increase accompanying autoentrepreneurs" says John Pouch, the deputy Senate payday loans. And thus better identify them.It is particularly possible to distinguish those who use the system for enhancing and supplementing their income for which the senators see no harm in what they are autoentrepreneurs much time they want – from those who Entrepreneurs are self-full time and are destined to become true entrepreneurs.

Herve Novelli has already voted against this measure, which he sees a way to complicate a system that owes much to its simplicity. In 2009, 320,000 entries were in fact registered as such. Unheard of.Fran?ois Hurel, President of the Union of Autoentrepreneurs says his side "does not quite understand this proposition, or the system is bad and should be abolished or he is good, and it must be sustainable 't believe he stressed that the establishment of the regime of self-contractor has already helped a lot of money back into the bosom of the state coffers. Finally, "from when to reauthorize eligible to enroll?" Asks he. So many questions to be answered by the senators.

The business climate remains stable in March

Tuesday, March 23rd, 2010

The indicator of business climate has remained stable in March, to 91 points, according to figures released Tuesday by the INSEE. At the same time, the indicator of economic turnaround remains well oriented "for the tenth consecutive month, Insee said.

"The Climate Stabilization mask disparities between sectors: The climate in the industry is improving as he deteriorates in services and retailing," notes the INSEE.

In industry, the index of business climate earns three points to 94 points but remained below its long-term average. Stocks, albeit at very low levels continue to decline, according to business leaders surveyed by INSEE. The outlook for the coming months rose three points.

The situation is worse in services, the index lost two points to 87 points in March, against 89 in February."The economy is faltering," said INSEE and "slow in coming months." Business leaders review "sharply downward their expectations of activity compared to the February survey, INSEE noted.

The retail trade is suffering for its part a slowdown in recent months, particularly in the automobile. The index of business climate in the sector loses two points in March to 98 points. In the construction sector, the index remains stable at 93 points.

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MEDEF: Metallurgy sets its requirements

Saturday, March 20th, 2010

A matter of survival! Frederic Saint-Geours does not mince his words on Thursday night calling for a profound "recasting employers, on pain of extinction. "In an era of increased competition, where companies seek to reduce overhead and streamline their organization, employers can continue to live on and operate under a structure inherited from the postwar period, has hammered the President the UIMM, in closing the third annual convention of the federation. The employers' organization must meet the expectations of businesses by simplifying its structure (…).Remaining fragmented, we are threatened with extinction in the debate and public action. "

Less than three months to designate the future boss of bosses, the first president of the federation MEDEF has actually set a roadmap can not be clearer for any candidate who would boast the support of the UIMM.

More collegiality

For him, this overhaul is necessary for a "governance reform of MEDEF" he deems perfect. "To better represent the enormous diversity of landscape entrepreneurial French, Medef needs a mode more college (… ), which requires an exemplary collaboration with all components and inter-professional ", justified Frederic Saint-Geours, as the text of his speech – the meeting took place behind closed doors.

The roles must be "clearly established" between a president "in entrepreneurial function, a general manager" responsible for services and the thriving community "and a college of elected officials" fully involved in the preparation position papers and public negotiations with the unions. " A thinly veiled criticism of Laurence Parisot, president of MEDEF, full time since 2005, who spent three CEOs in less than two years and who is accused of taking unilateral decisions.

However, no question of leaving the MEDEF, ensure UIMM – which is one of the most important components. Instead, a call was launched "to restore unity around the MEDEF employers'. Not without asking the end of "fratricidal quarrels" with CGPME – which is also UIMM stick – and the architects of the UPA.The "fierce competition" which engage the employers 'confederations' and display their differences "prove" suicidal for the employers and weaken its position vis-?-vis the government and unions. "

The president of the UIMM also wants to end "the milfoil employer" to approximate the structures (territorial chambers, trade associations, chambers of commerce …). Metallurgy promises to lead by example.

Becoming "the spokesman of the unanimous opinion" of the industrial enterprises that were surveyed in preparation for this convention, Frederic Saint-Geours has finally stated intention to develop cooperation with the federations of industry (chemical, textile … ) "on three common issues, including the promotion of an enabling environment for economic and social competitiveness of industrial enterprises and enhancing their businesses.In short, strengthening the "inter-industry level. Quit walking on beds of MEDEF. Again, Laurence Parisot appreciate …

Greek official: he wins, he loses

Thursday, March 18th, 2010

Greek officials have contributed to widening deficits in the country, they will also largely improve public finances. And this, not until later that week. The Socialist government of George Papandreou has decided to tackle the bloated public sector to reduce the expenses of the Greek state.

The total number of Greek officials remain uncertain. The Ministry of Finance counts "approximately" 522,000 in the central administration, a figure which must be added 180,000 employees of local authorities and public enterprises, according to a spokesman. Some economists expect rather from 800,000 to 850,000 jobs, or about 35% of total employment, as argued by Jens Bastian of the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP).

To achieve such a payroll, state and local governments have hired a vengeance. "In 2009, 12,000 people left in retirement and more than 29,000 were hired. In short, the entrants were almost two and a half times more numerous than the outgoing, "says Jens Bastian.

Clientelism

The trend is not new. "Until the current government, public service filled the role of an employment agency," said the economist. "The policies have also sought to use their electoral base as public servants."

According to Greek daily Kathimerini, the political patronage has been launched in the 80s by the Socialist Party (Pasok) and the then Prime Minister, Andreas Papandreou, who is none other than the father of George, currently head of Government savings account payday advance ."He wanted to give the excluded, which formed the core of its electorate, the means to live as middle class," says newspaper center-right. It was also "buy social peace" at any cost, continuing Kathimerini, while Greece emerged from the dictatorship of the Colonels.

The economy "coasting"

The Pasok is not solely to blame. "From 2004 to 2009, New Democracy (right) has made the situation worse by doing nothing to cut costs and increase government revenues, leaving the economy from free-wheeling," Kathimerini analysis.

The government of George Papandreou, under the combined pressure of the market and Brussels, has no alternative today to tighten the belt. He promised not to replace a retiring over the next five years. The thirteenth and fourteenth month salaries of civil servants will be reduced by 30% and 60%.The measures, announced in January and March, are retroactive and apply from 1 January. They will be more difficult to accept that they occur after 30 years of accommodative policies.

Swatch warns competitors

Saturday, March 13th, 2010

Swatch has saved the Swiss watch industry in the 1980s thanks to its cheaper models. DR

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