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"The Chinese economy should be consolidated"

Friday, July 23rd, 2010

lefigaro.fr / jdf.com – The slowdown in China is it disturbing for the world economy?

Yi Tang – Rather than "slow", I prefer to use the term "consolidation". China has still a yoy growth of 10.3% in the second quarter. The Chinese economy has certainly been a highest of 11.9% in the first quarter of this year and two of the three engines of China's economic growth in infrastructure investment and consumption have in fact seen their share in gross domestic product ( GDP) decline, while exports increased. But this consolidation is a natural and even necessary to avoid overheating. Note that the consolidation levels are higher than last year at the same time.Now, the year 2009 was so exceptional for the Chinese economy as a result of comparison with this year will necessarily be less favorable. We expect GDP% between 9 and 10% in 2010 to China.

What impact is there on the Chinese stock markets?

Paradoxically, since the confirmation of the consolidation of the Chinese economy, Asian stock markets' performance rather positive. However, fears of overheating and "double dip" (recession followed by recovery and then a new relapse) had plagued the financial markets and new opportunities for the long-term investors on the Shanghai and Scholarships Hong Kong. We encourage individuals to return to Chinese equities from one or two months and are positive for twelve or eighteen months.We also note that investors have a vision of increasing long-term actions, while so far the Chinese were accustomed to behave as short-term approach and more sheepish than international investors. He must be aware of that being a portfolio manager is very young in this country: the first asset management companies in China were introduced in 1998.

The change of status of China, which moves from an economy driven by exports to an economy supported by domestic consumption, he will offer new opportunities for investors?

Absolutely. This change is very positive for China and especially since it is now confirmed. The country has long said he would change the economic model without it being proved by the figures. Quite the contrary. The share of domestic consumption in GDP fell between 2001 and 2007.But since 2008, the government has clearly realized its desire to boost domestic demand by increasing spending on health and grants for education or for poorer totally free credit score.

This change will he impact your portfolio allocation?

We will clearly strengthen us in the consumer values. Our specialists will visit various areas of the region and identify trends. We are generally positive on the cyclical sectors in which the valuations are relatively attractive.

We will also strengthen the real estate industry. Three months ago, the government has taken a series of measures in this field. While the sector has seen massive sales, we have to position ourselves.Since April, we recorded an increase of 20% for a pocket which represents only 6% of our portfolio. Finally, we are strengthening in the commodities sector, because we thought that economic activity remains strong in China, and that the sector is oversold.

Conversely, we will reduce the share of defensive stocks such as pharmaceuticals (6.5% to 2%) and telecommunications (15% to 12/13%), for which we won respectively 40% and 50% and between 11% and 20%. We believe, unlike other managers forced to remain invested through management benchmarked, that valuations are too high now. For the first time we have seen in China as heads of companies bought back shares with their own money. This confirms our fundamental belief that companies are good and that the Chinese economy remains in good health.Rather than trying to replicate the performance of an index, we prefer to focus on the fundamentals of companies and their level of recovery.

Agricultural Bank of China could become the biggest IPO. Have you positioned in this title?

We have not invested in Agricultural Bank of China because we believe that the action is too expensive. Moreover, we do not, in general, the market capitalization as a criterion for management. We are lacking in banking stocks for nearly two years, but gradually reinvest in this sector. If the fundamentals of the Chinese economy evolve only very rarely, the value of its businesses varies, it very quickly. We will focus again to the Agricultural Bank of China, where the valuations of financial stocks will be more attractive.

There are so many add-on features to every insurance policy that add up to more expense for the consumer that every person who signs up for affordable car insurance needs to read thoroughly through the policy before agreeing to paying higher premiums.

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Towards a new step forward on Wall Street

Wednesday, July 21st, 2010

The U.S. stock market should open in the green Wednesday. The index futures Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100 advancing in effect respectively from 0.34% to 1083.80 points and 0.57% to 1850.50 points. On Tuesday, the New York Stock Exchange after moping around for most of the session was closed up, buoyed by rumors of new measures the U.S. central bank to strengthen the economy. The Dow Jones gained 0.74% and the Dow Jones 1.10%. The Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, today and tomorrow must deliver its verdict on the U.S. economy before the Senate Banking Committee.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro retreated against the dollar, traders were playing the card of caution before the release Friday of the results of resistance testing of the 91 largest European banks.In the morning, the euro was at 1.2867 dollars against 1.2881 dollars the previous day.

The session will be moderated somewhat in the macro, no indicator being expected that day, but many U.S. corporate results must be published in mid-day, including Coca-Cola and Wells Fargo banks and Morgan Stanley free credit score.

On the side of values, Apple released its quarterly after the close of Wall Street.The firm at the apple once again exceeded market expectations in the third quarter of fiscal offset with net income up 78% year on year to 3.253 billion dollars, and sales far beyond forecasts.

Always on the side of values, the U.S. Internet portal Yahoo! posted a group net profit up 51% year on year to 213.32 million dollars in the second quarter, better than expected by analysts, but its sales came out virtually unchanged.

Also note, the British oil giant BP, which is listed on Wall Street has reached an agreement on Tuesday with U.S. rival Apache to sell him to seven billion dollars in assets, making a sudden the majority of assignments to which it s 'was hired to offset the cost of the spill.

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France is putting everything on the train in 2030

Thursday, July 15th, 2010

This is a milestone of the Grenelle Environment. The Department of Ecology and Sustainable Development presented on Tuesday a draft to the national transport infrastructure (SNIT) in 2030. The text-presented to Parliament at the end of year is "a strategy document that sets broad guidelines for the state's transportation infrastructure."

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Wall Street is evolving in a piecemeal

Monday, July 12th, 2010

The caution is in U.S. markets on Monday. As we enter the ball of the first quarterly results on Monday, including Alcoa's after-hours trade, the U.S. markets move in an uncoordinated manner. The Dow Jones lost 0.09% to 10,189 points, in contrast, the Nasdaq advance of 0.56% to 2209 points and the S & P 500 gained 0.01% to 1078 points. Friday, Wall Street closed higher in very small volumes before the opening of the quarterly earnings season. The Dow Jones rose by 0.58% at 10,197 points, the Nasdaq 0.97% to 2196 points and the Standard & Poor's 500 by 0.72% to 1077 points.

The euro under $ 1.26

On the foreign exchange market, the euro has further retreated from Monday to below $ 1.26, on a foreign exchange market characterized by a weaker yen due to the electoral defeat of the ruling party in Japan and Pending results of the first companies in the United States.In the eurozone, the key event of the week will be put on the market for Treasury bills Greek tomorrow, the first since the announcement of the bailout of the European Union and the IMF in May

The week will be rich in promises of economic indicators in North America. In addition to the cascade of results expected in the coming days, markets will look especially to the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.They will look particularly at whether the Fed fears that the crisis of sovereign debt in Europe weigh on U.S. growth.

The ball starts quarterly results

In the absence of major macroeconomic publications on Monday, the market should focus on the first quarterly results announcements in the United States.

As always, the kick the ball in quarterly results, will be given by the aluminum giant Alcoa today after closing. Follow in the week the groups technology Google, AMD or Intel, and banks JPMorgan and Bank of America. The figures will be scrutinized with JPMorgan special attention because many investors believe that it is the financial will signal a rebound in real markets.

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Beigbeder, hussar to conquer the Ukraine

Sunday, July 4th, 2010

With its false air of Largo Winch, Charles Beigbeder imagines is visiting his Ukrainian collective farms in a helicopter, from there a few minutes before leaving for a secret destination. Lost! By minibus he went with his team, the farm of 8,000 hectares of Glukhov, 350 km from Kiev, listening, questioning, taking the time to take photos of wheat fields with his laptop.

Yet as the heroes of comic books, Charles Beigbeder conducts its business in the charge, hussar to conquer Ukraine. "His outsider allows him to undertake the impossible in our eyes. He charges no ulterior motives. Grow 45,300 hectares in three years in Ukraine, with a small team, for us it was unbelievable, "explained his field man, Charles Vilgrain, young chief executive of AgroGénération who rents the land now six collective farms Ukraine.Charles Beigbeder is with his partner Alain Mallart, shareholder. They rely on the required increase of 70% of agricultural production provided by FAO, to feed the world population by 2050.

Nothing is too good to conquer the breadbasket of Europe, under-utilized in the courtyard of a huge kolkhoz Glukhov Case-IH Steiger articulated eight wheels, 535 horsepower, illustrates the enormity of the operation of 8000 hectares. With a tank of 1000 liters, it can run tirelessly in "three to eight" during the harvest. "The effect of size is a key to success, assures Joseph Alexander, CFO AgroGénération. The park is powered on average four times higher than in France, but the area 100 times greater. "

These farms were not chosen at random.The optimal humidity coincides with the very fertile black soil, the chernozem, the humus layer is so thick that it provides costly irrigation facilities. At Glukhov, no deep furrows of the earth scratch disks. This more gentle to the ecosystem is also good for the accounts: "The fuel savings and pesticides made possible an improvement in 30-50% of the margin," says Joseph Alexander. "The optimum is equivalent to 53 quintals per hectare wheat," says Charles Beigbeder. Today, farms are close to 43 quintals, or about the financial balance.

No taxes on corporate farming

Since the beginning of the adventure, all the activities required a total investment of 30 million euros (Shiloh, equipment …). Analysts expect a profit for the fourth year in 2011.For the current year the group should not be so far from equilibrium. Special zone: Ukraine no taxes on corporate farming, or VAT. To locate, AgroGénération relied on the experience of agri-industrial group Cereals French Champagne which it now sells its production of barley.

The risks are real: four guards protect equipment and crops. The GPS is used not only to optimize the use of fertilizers, but also to monitor the equipment to trace. To retain its 350 employees, AgroGénération offers the highest wages in the region (250-500 euros), while the average farm wage is 180 euros.

The company treats its relations with donors land farmed in 2800. Almost all are paid in kind with grain (750 kg) which will then feed the animals. But already Charles Beigbeder dream of other horizons."The presence in South America with the offset of the season will smooth the cash and share risks," says company founder, has set a goal: 100,000 hectares in 2012 in Ukraine.

Var cost insurers an estimated 700 million euros

Wednesday, June 23rd, 2010

The initial estimate of compensation cost related to flooding of Var (south) amounts to 700 million euros, approximately 45,000 claims, said Wednesday the president of the French Federation of Insurance Companies (FFSA) Bernard Spitz.

"We find orders of magnitude quite similar to (those of the storm, ed) Xynthia" for the party claims related to flooding and not the storm, said at a news conference, Mr. Spitz who noted that the average cost of a loss related to water was significantly higher than that of a loss related to the wind.

60% of the victims compensated in three months

The importance of the bill can be explained by the fact that many businesses were affected, and many car dealerships, said President of the FFSA, which also mentions several herds decimated."We do not yet make a more precise estimate than that," said Mr. Spitz, indicating that many insurers have themselves been victims of floods, making it difficult to make accurate estimates.

The torrential rains last week in the Var and the floods that have caused have affected 1,000 companies, according to the prefecture of the Var.

The cost of the storm Xynthia, which swept France in the west is February 28 and killed 53 people, was estimated by the FFSA to 1.5 billion euros, 700 million due to flooding to about 500,000 claims in total. Mr. Spitz said that in three months, about 60% insured Xynthia victims had received compensation.

deterioration of the profitability of insurers

"The year 2010 does not start better than 2009 in terms of claims," commented the managing director of the FFSA Jean-François Lequoy. Propagation of climatic events in 2009, including storms and Klaus Quinten, but also the increase of thefts and claims costs have put pressure on insurers, who have been forced to raise their prices in home and automobile.

The impact of floods but also Var Xynthia the storm on the combined ratio (compensation and overhead ratio of the amount of premiums collected) for insurers "will be visible," said Stéphane Penet, director of property insurance and liability The FFSA, which should lead to a further deterioration of the profitability of insurers.

Impact on the accounts of French insurance in 2010 should still be "substantially mitigated by the effect of reinsurance," assured Mr. Penette. Once again, Mr. Spitz called for strengthening the policy to prevent natural hazards in France. He has proposed to bring together all available data on the subject, by crossing those departments, insurers and the Central Reinsurance Fund (JRC). "There is a mobilization of public actors to improve the prevention work," observed the President of the FFSA.

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Pensions Woerth ready to go further on the arduous

Sunday, June 20th, 2010

Nicolas Sarkozy had given two days after the submission of the pension reform for the amendment and it was ultimately changed nothing. The bill, sent Friday around 22:30 unions serving the High Council of State Civil Service, which will give its advisory opinion on July 6, is consistent with the announcements on Wednesday. Its 19 articles incorporate the measures, with the exception of the 3.7 billion euros of taxes on households and businesses scheduled in 2011. These will be included in state budgets and the "Safely" in accordance with the guidelines of François Fillon consolidate all tax measures in these two texts in order to better manage public finances.

The head of state has asked his Labour Minister, Eric Woerth, think by September of possible changes to be incorporated by amendment to the House.And so on three themes: careers long, arduous, and polypensionnés. Three subjects dear to the CFDT. The latter is not even addressed in the present text. These are provided by several statutes passed during their careers (public, private, independent agricultural system …). The calculation of pensions is often disadvantageous for them.

Opening the arduous

But it is on the hardship that opening sketched payday advance. The employees for whom an occupational disease or an accident caused the failure of at least 20% will leave at 60 with full pension, the bill provides. Unpublished, but not enough for the unions.They argue that the mere fact of being exposed to certain factors (heavy lifting, breathing chemicals, environmental noise, night work …) reduces life expectancy in good health, and so should go on retire earlier.

Fearing an uncontrollable costs, the government said no to this point. Eric Woerth, however, acknowledged Sunday on Europe 1 that certain factors can "trigger almost invariably physical disorders. Article 9 of the text in 2012 require employers to record exposure to these "risks" in a "medical record in occupational health" that will follow the employee from one employer to another. Prerequisite to a device for all these people to stop working before the legal age? The Minister of Labour was careful to say so explicitly.

War trial graphics Kerviel

Wednesday, June 16th, 2010

What's better than a nice graphic to save everyone a complex financial statement? Nothing. The trial of Jerome Kerviel, which opened June 8 at the Paris Criminal Court, is the scene of a squabble curves and histograms.

On Tuesday, it comes from the days when he officiated at Societe Generale. As usual, two competing theories. That the defendant, who ensures that his positions were stratospheric in plain sight at all times by his superiors and the various supervisory bodies, both in terms of unrealized losses (less than 5 billion euros in July 2007) in terms gains (1.4 billion in December of that year).And his defense to the form of 'graph', a comparison of the cash positions of the eight traders of the Delta One desk.

It shows seven lines of different colors follow almost straight trajectories, as brave barges pretending to race in the same channel. And then a red line, Jerome Kerviel, who could have been drawn by a trader during an exercise in crazy bungee jumping. It falls very low, it goes very loud, it falls, and so on. Mr. Metzner triumph, the yoyo manic over the barges is apathetic to him one more proof that the hierarchy "could not ignore" what was going on in the trading room of La Defense.

But it would be too simple. Because the plaintiff out of his sleeve another powerful "graph," which proves exactly the opposite.In this figure apparently scientific but objectively confused lines sawtooth cross in all directions. That of Mr. Kerviel is drowned amidst the other, no more extravagant than the average. "It's like comparing apples and oranges," protested the prisoner. "Not at all, contends Ms. Dumas. This is the other "graph" 'which is misleading because it is a focus on a small activity of Delta One "— the risk-free, which should have been monopolizing the energy of Mr Kerviel.

In short, it turns in circles.

In the afternoon, Moussa Bakir, 34, appeared at the bar. He was a trader at Soc Gen where he hugged Jerome Kerviel. Then he joined the brokerage subsidiary of the bank, Fimat, as broker.In mid 2007, the two men how to work and seems to become friends – witness the picturesque email exchanges, interspersed with "lol" and whatnot lexical far removed from the professional jargon.

Mr Bakir recounts how, at the end of 2007, he executes orders more and more — there will be tens of billions of euros — initiated by his friend: "The volume increases, commissions too. But my work has been monitored, encouraged and welcomed. I saw nothing unusual in my case. " At stake, a bonus of nearly $ 1.5 million for the broker.But the huge volume of financial products that negotiates on behalf of Jerome Kerviel it puts some flea in his ear, and he asks the trader for whom he acts: "He told me it was for a client bank, a fund based in London, through a so-called "Doubt," which he had often done by telephone, he saw some who scolded and whose goal was to win one billion. Jerome has often spoken of Mat.

Jerome Kerviel: "It did not happen like that. He was insistent, so I told him about a client. Yes, it was a hoax.

The President: "But why would he have spoken again later?"

The accused: "I do not remember having done."

The Chairman: "Keep up your statements?"

Witness: "I stand".

Monday, Kerviel felt twice as playing with the controls of the bank constituted a "national sport".The next day, he acknowledges having created a "hoax" to counter the curiosity of a friend. A big hoax, namely: Mr. Kerviel, which multiplied the fictitious positions to hide his positions, he also invented a client of flesh and bone to justify its investments unreasonable. He was named "Mat". How long he thought he would play only this game of chess?

Fillon wants to reduce spending by 45 billion euros

Monday, June 14th, 2010

Found 100 billion euros in three years. This is the government's objective to reduce the deficit from 8% to 3% in 2013, reiterated Prime Minister François Fillon on Saturday, which gave details of the proposed measures. "We have pledged by 2013 to reduce our deficit from 8% to 3% and all our efforts will focus on this priority. It means basically that should reduce the deficit of 100 billion by 2013, "he said during a meeting with new members of the UMP Salle Gaveau.

The $ 100 billion, "we (them) to find the half in spending cuts and half in revenue increases," said the head of government.The 50 billion euros in spending cuts will be made up of "45 billion by reducing public expenditure, 5 billion on reducing tax loopholes."

On the revenue side, the 50 billion do not result from increased taxes and levies, "said Francois Fillon. He bets on "35 billion upgrading after the crisis, loss of revenue cyclical. (…) As and when growth returns, revenues are growing once again, "he said. And the remaining 15 billion? They "will correspond to the end of the steps we have taken to boost the economy and have obviously not meant to last beyond this period of recovery," he added no fax pay day loan.

In May, Francois Fillon had already announced a freeze in spending value of the state but had not detailed the targets.These details are involved a little less than a week after Berlin has adopted a plan rigorously evaluated at 80 billion euros. France is under pressure from financial markets and rating agencies, who urged him to detail the measures to be taken to reduce debt.

"New sources of funding"

The Prime Minister also addressed the issue of pensions. While the government prepares to release his reform plan, Francois Fillon reiterated its intention to extend the duration of activity and pushing the "symbol" of the statutory retirement age to 60 years.

It will also seek new financing, he added. "Justice will lead us to seek new sources of financing because the effort must be shared by all," he said.Nevertheless, the government has temporarily waived taxing incomes over 11,000 euros per month, according to information from Figaro.

Airbus faces production halts

Tuesday, April 27th, 2010

A first for Airbus. Unions have all agreed to call for a freeze on production via a rotating strike that must affect all Airbus sites in turn. Since Monday afternoon, employees stopped work on site in Toulouse Clement Ader who assembles Airbus A 330 and A 340. Tuesday is that of Saint-Martin-du-Touch, head of the A320, which must stop work, then tomorrow the hangar Jean-Luc Lagardere whence come the 380. This weekend, employees of consulting firms and corporate headquarters in Toulouse are expected to stop work. Meanwhile, the hall unloading Beluga cargo planes must be blocked to prevent the delivery of parts and packages pre-assembled from other European plants of Airbus.

At the heart of this sudden clenching of association, wages and employment.The Inter held insufficient a proposal from the Executive Airbus to raise, from 1.5% to 1.9% its offer to general wage increase in 2010. According to the unions, this offer is too far from the 3.5% achieved in 2009. "We advocate the preservation of purchasing power and reward the efforts made to maintain delivery targets record (498 units by 2009) this year and the challenges associated with the A380, the A350 and the A 400M. Engineering the companion, through the course, everyone is under pressure, "said Jean-Francois Knepper, delegate of FP, the majority union."Employees are however not responsible for the strategic mistakes of the managers on programs A380 and A400M," said Pierre-Henri Coat CFDT delegate Central in Nantes, also affected by blockages targeted.

Inventories buffers "

The unions also want to obtain an interest in more "generous": "At Airbus, the participation will be EUR 0 and the incentive of 557 euros, while Astrium participation will be 2700 euro and the incentive of 1000 euro , "argues Jean-Francois Knepper. Another claim, get the hiring of 700-800 people, as in Germany.

Regarding the direction, it said that his proposal is within the upper range of that offer members of the Aerospace Industries Group, Gifas (between 1.5 and 2%)."Between 2005 and 2009, wages increased by 17.9%," said a spokesman for Airbus.

Spoiled the employees of Airbus? While many employees are subject to discipline – not to mention social plans. "Few companies have a backlog of five or six years, making Airbus a comfortable market situation, 'explains Pierre-Henri Coat. On Monday, Airbus is serene wanted: "For now, the final production is not affected. We have buffer stocks which can work normally. "The showdown has begun.

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