Euro area: London turned up the heat

May 18th, 2012

 

The Greek case is still under pressure in Europe. Yesterday, just hours before meeting at a video conference with Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande, Mario Monti, President of the European Union Van Rompuy and the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso, British Prime Minister David Cameron renewed its warning about the future of the euro area. He repeated the warning he had already expressed the day before the House of Commons. "Either the euro area is a solution, or it may burst," warned the Tory leader who spoke to business leaders.

One month wait

For its part, the IMF announced it was suspending contacts with Greece until the parliamentary elections of June 17 The IMF does not work with the transitional government technical has been appointed in Greece. For the country, but also for the euro area, it's another month of lost.

"Greece is on the brink, the survival of the euro is concerned," was hammered again Thursday David Cameron. This is not the first time that the British Prime Minister urged his European counterparts to resolve the crisis in Europe, but until then he had never questioned his European counterparts so as hopeless. Apostle of austerity, Cameron has left no doubt about his intention to continue to pursue a policy of strictly national on line pay day loans. He also encouraged European countries in difficulty to adopt the same fiscal stance. "The notion that highly indebted countries can stabilize their economy by borrowing more is a dangerous illusion," he insisted.  

However, the head of the British coalition said he was open to new ideas, such as issuing Eurobonds to finance major projects championed by Francois Hollande. "As I said before, it is in the interest of Great Britain that the euro zone resolve its problems," said David Cameron, who is committed to making the British economy more competitive.

Domestically, the coalition government faces serious problems: the UK is in recession and again in the polls, Labour largely dominate the Conservatives. The opposition also accused the government of using the euro area "as an excuse to the problems of Britain."

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Greece: Europe face its responsibilities

May 16th, 2012

 

The Greek political impasse precipitated whole euro-zone in turmoil. The urgency urges Europe to find a solution quickly. Whatever it is, it will be painful.

• To compel Greece to respect the austerity

European leaders launched an ultimatum to Greece. If it does not implement the austerity required, the international financial aid would be cut off, preventing Greece to repay all its debt maturities coming, and precipitating the country into bankruptcy. In this case, Greece should leave the eurozone.

Provided in recent weeks, Europe operates a shift in which growth has its place in the Old Continent's economic strategy, in addition to fiscal restraint. The background is a consensus, but not the form. In this context, forcing Greece to return to the pure austerity seems difficult. First, because the Greek people, breathless and desperate, no longer wanted and made it clear at the polls. Secondly, because the Greek political situation, with anti-austerity parties going up, is at an impasse which removes the unprecedented possibility of a return to a political pro-austerity majority. Finally, a Europe that would impose on Greece which it now seems inappropriate, would conduct both schyzophrène and suicidal.

• Allow Greece leave the euro

This option is no longer unthinkable. Even the IMF is preparing, just in case. Besides the legal aspect – the European treaties do not foresee such a case – a return to the drachma would have terrible consequences. For the Greeks first. Already, there is such a perspective the population grows at bank counters. Out of the euro could cost at a minimum 10 points of GDP in Greece on the first year alone. And for subsequent years, there is nothing to predict that Greece so as Argentina. Greece does not export much. Rather, it is very important (30% of GDP), at a cost untenable if the drachma depreciated. Finally, a lack of public debt would not solve its problems: the deficit would still exist and would be widened by a favorable massacred.

Then for other countries Europeans, too weakened by sluggish growth and public finances deteriorated seriously. In France alone, the net loss would amount to nearly 60 already one billion euros. Dominates also the risk of setting a precedent and see other weak countries, like Ireland and Portugal, also on a drip of the IMF and the EU, choosing bankruptcy and return to their local currency in an attempt last resort to reinvigorate. The euro area could then explode as fast as the market attack.

• Give more time for Greece to achieve its objectives

Among the possible options for Greece: the scenario of a further relaxation of the austerity plan. Asphyxiated by drastic austerity measures, Athens could threaten to leave the euro – and the euro area and plunge into an existential crisis dangerous – and take longer to achieve the fiscal targets set by Europe and the IMF pay day loan lenders. For now, the European side, the tone is icy. Especially in Germany, where the finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, has categorically denied any renegotiation of the plan with EU, IMF and ECB.

If Greece is in the euro area, and that time is given for finding the way serenely fiscal consolidation, solutions to longer term, for Greece and for the rest of the eurozone, are possible.

• Review the role of the ECB

More and more voices (including that of François Hollande) are calling for the ECB to intervene much more to lower interest rates. It could be that the ECB buys direct public debt markets – the market price – and then she turns them into securities with very long maturities and interest rates low in order to significantly reduce the debt service troubled countries. The loss for the ECB would artificially offset. At this point, the idea is hardly addressed at European level, Germany and the four brake shoes when it comes to change the role of the ECB. She even refuses to talk for fear of frightening the markets.

Further, warned Patrick Artus of Natixis economist, "the crisis in the euro area would not be far from over" de-industrialized countries like Greece, France, Spain, Portugal or Italy still remain in position of heavy deficit which recovery will remain unavoidable to restore public finances.

• Creation of Eurobonds, strengthening the European Investment Bank, etc..

Hence the notion of "growth", often accompanied by the word "competitiveness" and "employment", claimed by all heads of the European ruling, and now supported by Barack Obama. Remains is to agree on how to get it. Francois Hollande and Angela Merkel, during their first recontre, showed they were sentenced to agree. Next Wednesday, they meet for an informal lunch with their European counterparts. The great debate to continue building the future Europe could be launched: implementation or not of Eurobonds and a "European Treasury" strengthening European Investment Bank, the objectives of the open ECB to employment (as in the United States for the Fed) and not only to inflation; establishment of a Marshall Plan, etc..

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Recovery: the European Investment Bank sought

May 15th, 2012

 

Whatever the final scope of the Franco-German compromise on a European recovery plan, a point is a virtual consensus: the European Investment Bank (EIB) will be further tapped. During his campaign, Francois Hollande has repeatedly cited the institution, explaining to want to see more funding for innovative projects. Chaired by a German, Werner Hoyer, the EIB has the added advantage of being compatible with the philosophy of Berlin in public finance.

Created after the Treaty of Rome, in 1958, this arm of the European Union acts as a conventional financial institution with its shareholders – the 27 EU member states – and its own funds – 232 billion – which it serves as collateral to raise funds on the market and in return grant funds to the public sector. In other words, an appeal to the EIB does not dig, as such, deficits in the area.

Finance ministers of Twenty-Seven will meet Tuesday morning in Brussels, the Governing Council to start work on the practical modalities of strengthening the institution. An exercise stress: no question that the EIB, currently rated "AAA" by the three major agencies, lose this precious document. Where applicable, the cost of refinancing is found in heavy and interventions become less effective.

Two schemes in the study

Request more loans the EIB is therefore to provide in return the appropriate funds. Two schemes are under consideration. The first is to rely on the EU budget. The idea of ​​bringing the Commission to the capital being strongly opposed by the Member States, the solution that emerges would be to use part of European funds as collateral for loans which would then be granted by the EIB cash advance no fax. It is this pattern that has been adopted in Greece, for example where the Bank has committed to lend up to 1 billion euros for innovative SMEs from a guarantee of 500 million EU.

The second scheme – which holds the rope – is a mere increase of the EIB's capital, financed by the 27 shareholders. The magnitude of this increase would be about 10 billion euros, which would allow the EIB to grant 60 billion of loans that can generate around 180 billion investment, thanks to the leverage caused by the co-investment from the private sector. An overall figure on which refuses to engage the side of the EIB, "everything depends on the type of investment, leverage is stronger in the context of public-private partnerships in SME lending" says an official. However, the figure of 10 billion additional capital seems to be confirmed.

The impact is not negligible for the European states. The two main shareholders of the bank, France and Germany, which each own 16.5% stake, will write a check for $ 1.65 billion. And even if it is not, strictly speaking, additional debt, the stress on budgets is important. The talks between finance ministers will continue in the coming weeks, to stop a scheme before the European Council in late June.  

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A challenging year for investors

May 13th, 2012

 

The result of the presidential election did not have immediate consequences on the markets. Monday, they reacted with restraint, the CAC 40 ended in the green without particular tension on interest rates, even though after the week was more difficult. The Standard & Poor's has estimated that the election of Francois Hollande did not lead to immediate change in the rating of France, but there was still one in three chance that it degrades the note for long term of the country, this year or in 2013. "Francois Hollande announced its wish to be judged in two areas: justice and youth. Markets deem on growth and fiscal management, "warns Pierre-Antoine Dusoulier, chairman of Saxo Bank, for whom" the markets have no political bias, they vote for the increase in GDP. " Since the beginning of the year, the markets remained volatile on a background of crisis in the euro area. Investors who bet on the French equity mutual funds have still gained an average of 6.45% according Europerformance. And the rebound of the U.S. market allowed mutual funds to earn 9.65% specialized. For now, there are many questions among investors. "They should not be cash cows," he recently launched in an open letter to the candidates Faider, the Federation of Independent human savers for retirement. Redevelopment of the ISF, doubling the ceiling of Booklet A and Booklet of sustainable development, increased taxation of high salaries, limiting tax loopholes, decreased depression for children on inheritance and gifts. Many measures of the program of the new president affect heritage. It was not until July, when will the special session of Parliament, to be attached to their implementation. Until then, it is likely that individuals will seek refuge in investment holding. Today, some booklets (whose interests are taxed) offer a 5% return over three months. Time to learn more. Those who are determined to prepare for retirement know that they will take options over trenches. But for that, they need visibility on taxation and sustainability.

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Iranian tankers play hide and seek

May 11th, 2012

 

"The Iranian tankers play hide and seek." So says the International Energy Agency (IEA), which devotes a paragraph to this issue of its monthly report published in the oil markets this Friday morning.

While the EU embargo against exports of crude is gradually taking place, according to the IEA, the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) has been ordered by political authorities to remove the transponders of its oil tankers. By disabling the electronic device, be it one or two days during a crossing, the geolocation of satellite oil becomes more difficult, says the IEA.

NITC has a fleet of 39 ships. The company provides the bulk of national exports in Tehran because foreign shipowners are increasingly difficult for insurers willing to take charge of Iranian cargoes.

Since early April, a quarter of Iran's tanker fleet would have been in "stealth". Result, says the IEA report, information on stocks and sales of Iranian oil is highly uncertain. Precisely the goal pursued by the regime of President Ahmadinejad, as head of the second largest exporter of black gold of OPEC.

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Spain ready to nationalize Bankia

May 10th, 2012

 

Full financial and economic crisis, Spain is preparing to nationalize Bankia, the fourth largest bank, formed by the merger of seven Spanish savings banks in December 2010. According to El Pais, the decision was announced Wednesday night by the new CEO of Bankia, Jose Ignacio Goirigolzarri, at the Board of Directors of the bank.

The daily ABC, the government could hold up to 45% of the banking group, which would make the majority shareholder, after injection of 4.4 billion euros of capital. The money would come from public funds to support Spanish banks, the Frob, founded in 2010.

Announced for several days, this bailout is intended to reassure investors, while the bank accounts are sealed by prime mortgage risk.

The prospect of nationalization of a large Spanish bank, unprecedented in the country since 1992, does not please the markets. On Wednesday, all Spanish banks were sanctioned Exchange: Santander and BBVA have yielded 4.52% and 4.73%, respectively, while Bankia lost 5.84%. Sector In falling throughout the Ibex 35, which closed at a new level since 2003.

A rescue plan Friday

If the measure makes sense in Madrid, Spain is not the first European country to have nationalized its banks since the crisis erupted in 2008. Belgium, the Netherlands, the UK and Ireland nationalized much of their banking sector. In Ireland, the cost of bank bailout was so high, it has increased the deficit to 32% of GDP, forcing the country to seek IMF assistance and the euro area guaranteed high risk personal loans.

In Spain, the nationalization of Bankia a turning point in worrying the banking crisis. After the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the big Spanish banks such as BBVA and Santander were cited as examples for their strength. The problems came from "cajas" savings banks that invested with a vengeance in real estate. Today, they are more than a dozen sips but risky assets, including 37.5 billion for the only Bankia.

The government has already asked in early February to banks to provision 53 billion a year, is preparing to present a new rescue plan on Friday, the Council of Ministers.

Recapitalization needs of the Spanish banking sector are estimated at EUR 100 billion, while loans amounted to 143.8 billion euros, according to the latest figures from the Bank of Spain.

Unable to refinance when rates soar on debt markets, Spanish banks have no other choice but to call for help from the state. But the government has not the means to save the entire sector, while its deficit already stands at 8.5% of GDP. And he has already committed for 2012 of 47 billion euros saved. Even if it costs him politically, Mariano Rajoy could be forced to go through using the EFSF (European Financial Stability Fund).

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S & P and Fitch maintained the rating of France

May 8th, 2012

 

France has not lost fiscal credibility in one night: the election of Francois Hollande suddenly does not make the country less able to finance its debt. While remembering not to take any "political position" is the message that wished to address the rating agency Standard & Poor's Monday morning, issuing a statement saying that the memo from France – "AA +" with perspective negative – was not challenged.

The speech is the same at Fitch. The rating agency said, after the close of European stock exchanges, that the victory of François Hollande was no effect on the AAA rating of France. "The election of the Socialist Party candidate for the presidency of the French Republic, has no implications for the AAA rating of France, currently on negative outlook," said a statement.  

The agency adds that "the new president faces the same challenges as its predecessor: the strengthening of fiscal credibility, improving the potential medium-term growth of France and the handling of the crisis in the euro area" . S & P says his side "there is at least one in three chance that we may need to lower the long-term rating of France this year or in 2013", under the situation of public finances.

Test market 16 May

In its statement, S & P says it will "analyze the choice of new president and new government" and take into account in any future decision on the outcome of the June elections. The next auction of debt, which will be held Thursday, May 16, should serve as a real test markets. At this time we will know if investor demand to fund the French debt is as important as ever.

At the Agence France Trésor (AFT), we simply note that Monday morning, "the 10-year yield continues to relax"

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Those brands that have them speak with the presidential

May 6th, 2012

 

Candidates with strong personalities, verbal jousting, a dose of suspense, … presidential election, the highlight of French political life, provides a golden opportunity for brands to stand out for their creativity. For some of them, it is even the opportunity to make themselves known. Among them, the Paris Chocolate brand, created last year, did speak of her with boxes of chocolates bearing the image of candidates. Popilz society, which wants to start selling humorous figurines inspired by celebrities, moved, for his part, since its April 23 first characters in the image of Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande. MarionDem, young designer who launched last December the lingerie brand Panty Me, launched panties printed with the colors of the candidates. Best known and oldest brand Reunion sorry! commercialized a reversible shirt if we hesitate to support the UMP candidate or PS.

In these operations, profitability is not often visit. "We know that this is not a shirt to wear every day. We especially want to build brand awareness, "said Peter Marten, founder of the brand sorry! that focuses on products related to humorous news. Even at the risk a fine for infringement of image rights, as in 2008. At Popilz also, "the goal is not to make profits but to come forward and test the market," says Bastien Rochard, manager of the company. "The presidential election is the best time to create awareness around a brand. Citizens and the media only talk about it for a month. This is an opportunity to talk with humor. "

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The CAC 40 fell after U.S. jobs

May 5th, 2012

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A reprieve for Neo Security

May 3rd, 2012

 

The vigils of Bercy and the Elysee saved Neo Security receivership. April 24, Jean-Michel Houry, boss of the two human surveillance in France, had filed the declaration of cessation of payments (DCP) group at the Commercial Court of Paris.

The media whirlpool that folder, in its presidential campaign, have accelerated the search for a solution to ensure the sustainability of the company, faced with the failure of the investor that could provide 15 million euros. Bercy has agreed in recent days to "temporarily suspend the due date of a portion of payroll tax and" Neo Security, which should allow the group to meet all other claims, including salaries .

With this breath of fresh air for his company, Jean-Michel Houry Wednesday withdrew the DCP, on the eve of the hearing of the Commercial Court of Paris which was to entrust the reins of the group to an administrator. "The leader of Neo Security pledged to leave office without compensation even before the end of the sale process," says the firm is kindly Eric Besson, Minister of Industry, where the pressure rises to find a recovery solution.

Bercy has given few weeks to find a buyer could take all the capital for a symbolic euro by committing to keep 5100 jobs, in return for freezing a portion of social security and tax receivables and deferred payment of the other party. A mission of conciliation was committed yesterday on this subject at the Commercial Court of Paris

"A temporary reprieve"

Bercy has already identified four candidates for the recovery. One with whom negotiations are the most advanced is the French giant's accounting Fiducial, as revealed in Le Figaro (our editions of April 30). Reportedly, another candidate, a wealthy French businessman, owner of a small security company (fewer than 500 employees) that he wishes to marry Neo Security, is looking closely at the record. An investment fund and a consortium of 15 SMEs in the security sector have also expressed interest.

However, no negotiations are underway with Securitas. At Bercy, but he says there is a "limited and temporary reprieve." The bankruptcy could become a threat if negotiations fail quickly. Neo Security leaders have no interest in the hamper. A bankruptcy would jeopardize up to 1,000 jobs at Neo Security Bercy and would lose all its social and fiscal debts.  

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